As October ends and November commences, the Chicago Blackhawks find themselves in a familiar spot: Last place in the Central Division. Well, tied for last with the underperforming Nashville Predators as they head into their final game of October in a season that once again is looking more like a throwaway campaign.
So, what happened to the Blackhawks in October, and why have they been off to such a bad start yet again? Overall, when you look at their goals for vs. goals against, the Hawks aren’t that bad, ranking 22nd with 27 goals scored heading into Halloween’s faceoff with the San Jose Sharks and a solid 16th with 33 goals allowed.
The Hawks, based on those two stats, look like they’ve improved. Their special teams have also been solid, if unspectacular, with a power play that’s converted 21.21 percent of the time, which was slightly over the league average as of the 31st, and their penalty kill sat just under the NHL norm of 78.91, with a percentage of 77.42, so it hasn’t been awful.
Their 5-on-5 analytics don’t even look awful, with a better-than-average save percentage, plus a manageable 48.2 Corsi For, plus 17 actual goals scored. Neither stat is sitting at the league average, but they’re also not so far behind that they need to play serious catch-up.
What exactly has been wrong with the Blackhawks in October?
As noted above, their 5-on-5 analytics weren’t bad, but offensively, they are below average, and some are well below average, like shooting percentage (7.1 percent) and high-danger chances for (40.8 percent). Meanwhile, if there’s one defensive analytic they’ve been bad at throughout the month, it’s giving up high-danger chances.
Here is where the problem persists, based on the data we have. So far, the average goals allowed from high-danger chances at 5-on-5 is eight, but the Hawks have allowed 11, or 10.9 percent high-danger goals allowed.
They’re also surprisingly good at scoring goals when creating high-danger chances, having put up seven for a high-danger conversion rate of 10.1 percent, a full percentage point higher than the league average prior to Thursday night’s slate of games.
That said, the Hawks are allowing way too many big plays, and they’re not forging enough of them at 5-on-5. One-third of their goals allowed have come on high-danger chances, and just over one-quarter of their goals scored have come when they’ve created such chances.
This isn’t to say the Hawks will win a plethora more games if they find ways to stop giving such chances to opponents while creating more of their own. But they will be difference-makers in at least a few games, and if they fix these issues sooner rather than later, we should be gearing for a better November.
