Trading down is, philosophically, a smart way of approaching the draft. You embrace uncertainty, maximize your chances to hit, and bet against decision-makers who don’t have the same level of awareness. Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has been a good example of that success.

In 2018, he moved down and then back up, getting Jaire Alexander and a future first-round pick, while the New Orleans Saints moved up to take Marcus Davenport, who never hit.

In 2023, the Packers traded down twice early in the second round before taking Jayden Reed. The extra picks allowed them to draft Dontayvion Wicks and Karl Brooks. Obviously, it won’t always work out well. In 2017, Ted Thompson moved away from the possibility of taking TJ Watt, and ended up with Kevin King and Vince Biegel—but they would probably not draft Watt anyway.

In general, smart teams want more picks. And the Packers have been a prime example of that strategy over the past few years. Nobody has had more selections than Green Bay over the last three years—11 in 2022, 13 in 2023, 11 in 2024. Part of that was trading away players like Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers, part was taking care of the compensatory pick formula, and a smaller part was trading down.

This year, though, the situation is slightly different. The Packers have “only” eight picks so far, which would be tied for the fewest since Gutekunst took over as a GM. When asked about it at the NFL Combine, the executive answered with a cryptic “Yet.” Maybe it’s just posturing, or maybe he knows that this year is a particularly important moment for the Packers to add extra draft capital.

The logic behind it

Since the 2011 CBA, with the inception of the rookie-scale contracts, getting and taking advantage of players on their first deals is extremely important. The Packers sometimes have failed to maximize this advantage, drafting players who would take too much time to develop. It’s ok if they end up developing into good players, but asset maximization does play a factor in successful roster-building—just ask the best general manager in football, Philadelphia Eagles’ Howie Roseman.

However, the best way to find cheap talent is just… having a lot of it on the roster each and every year. And this has been the best part of Brian Gutekunst’s approach.

When you have 10+ draft selections every year, the team increases the chances of getting more top players, but also more competent role players. And when the team makes a scouting mistake, which is completely normal in this process, the impact is lower. In 2022, for example, it wasn’t great to leave the draft with Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt in the first round. However, there were so many picks after it that the Packers were able to build a strong class with three starting offensive linemen in Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, and Rasheed Walker, plus two valuable receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and a starting edge defender in Kingsley Enagbare.

Between 2020 and 2021, the Packers had 18 combined draft picks—the average of nine is significantly lower than what the team has had since. And outside of quarterback Jordan Love, it’s an awful watch. The only other player who’s still on the roster is linebacker Isaiah McDuffie, a sixth-round pick in 2021.

More picks, more chances to get it right, less impact if you get it wrong.

Roster situation

Right now in particular, the Packers need more pieces. At this moment, the team is slated to have only 29 players under contract for 2026, and it’s the team with the least amount of cap space amongst franchises with fewer than 30 players signed.

Sure, the Packers can get the financial situation right by releasing or trading players like Jaire Alexander and Kenny Clark. But guess what, it will be imperative to find good pieces to replace them.

More than that, the downside of having those big draft classes is that everyone’s contracts are coming to an end at the same time. Some will extend their deals, like Zach Tom, but some will inevitably leave in free agency.

The Packers need more than eight picks, and if Alexander doesn’t get traded before the draft, the best way of doing so is via trading down.

Easier said than done

While moving down is philosophically the best approach, this year is a hard one to pull this off. The overall perception around the class is that it’s strong at the top, but there’s little difference between players 15-40. And if that’s how teams perceive it, the market to move down will be devalued.

In general, teams keep their draft charts intact. The quality of the draft class doesn’t change the calculus. However, general managers are less inclined to pay an excessive price based on their charts when the class isn’t heavy.

The Packers could realistically be inclined to move down, but it takes two to tango.

Ultimately, it’s all about how the board shakes out. If the Packers have only one first-round prospect left on their board by, let’s say, pick 20, and the value to move up is enticing, Gutekunst could pull the trigger, just like he did with Darnell Savage in 2019 or Jordan Love in 2020. And if there are not great options or too many of them, trading down is the ideal path—but, again, the value also needs to be there.]