The Green Bay Packers are 6-3 but could be so much better – and will need to be so much better. These three areas will define the rest of the season.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) walks off the field after 24-14 loss to Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Fresh off their bye and following a weeklong search for ways to improve, the Green Bay Packers returned on Monday to begin their eight-week drive to the NFL playoffs.
With little margin for error in the NFC, here are three areas where the Packers must improve in order to get back to the postseason and perhaps make their first run to the Super Bowl since 2010.
Jordan Love’s Efficiency
Will the real Jordan Love please stand up?
These statistical comparisons provide some easy symmetry.
Games 1-9, 2023: 58.7 percent, 14 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions, 6.7 yards per attempt – 80.5 passer rating (27th out of 34 quarterbacks with 100 attempts).
Games 10-17, 2023: 70.3 percent, 18 touchdowns vs. one interception, 7.7 yards per attempt – 112.7 passer rating (2nd out of 33 quarterbacks with 100 attempts).
Games 1-9, 2024: 61.3 percent, 15 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions, 7.6 yards per attempt – 88.2 passer rating (22nd out of 36 quarterbacks with 100 attempts).
Love, while dealing with knee and groin injuries, played better during the first half of this season compared to the first half of last season. However, Love’s domination down the stretch last season has translated only into disappointment to start this season. Rather than taking one step forward, he’s taken a significant step backward.
With a bye week for Love to get healthy and the coaching staff to dig into solutions, will Love resemble the quarterback who took the league by storm during the second half of last season? If so, the Packers could make a run to the Super Bowl. If he does not, the Packers’ presumed failure to meet expectations will be just the tip off the iceberg.
The Packers swear they’re not alarmed by Love’s statistical regression. However, this is a damning stat: After throwing one interception in 279 passing attempts during the final eight games of last season, he’s thrown 10 in 240 attempts this season.
“We see him every day. We see how he works, his focus, what he’s doing,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said. “I think every interception is a little different. I’m not overly concerned with it. It has to get better. I think we all know that. But, at the same time, I’m not overly concerned. The way he works, the way he goes about things, that’s just a matter of time in my opinion.”
That had better be true. Even without prorating Love’s numbers due to time on the sideline and simply going with 10 interceptions in nine games, he is on pace to throw 18.8 interceptions. Rounding it down to 18, the only quarterback over the last decade to throw 18 interceptions and lead his team to the playoffs was the Bills’ Josh Allen last season, when he threw 29 touchdowns vs 18 picks to help Buffalo go 11-6.
Defensive Stars Struggle
The Packers count seven first-round picks on their defense. Three of them rank among the five-highest paid players on the roster.
Defensive tackle Kenny Clark (2016), coming off his third Pro Bowl season and given a contract extension at the start of training camp that makes him the 12th-highest paid player at the position, has zero sacks.
Cornerback Jaire Alexander (2018), a two-time second-team All-Pro who ranks third at the position in annual pay, has missed three games due to injuries.
Defensive end Rashan Gary (2019), who was given a contract extension at midseason last year that makes him the eighth-highest paid edge defender, has 2.5 sacks but only a half-sack in which he actually beat his blocker.
Cornerback Eric Stokes (2021) is a part-time player who hasn’t broken up a pass since his rookie season.
Linebacker Quay Walker (2022), the team’s signal-calling middle linebacker, leads the team in tackles but has zero interceptions, passes defensed or forced fumbles and too often has been a step behind in coverage.
Defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (2022) has three sacks and six tackles for losses even though he missed four games with an ankle injury.
Defensive end Lukas Van Ness (2023) has one sack. Of 85 edge defenders with at least 125 pass-rushing snaps, he ranks 84th in PFF’s pass-rush productivity, which measures sacks, hits and hurries per pass-rushing snap, and 74th in pass-rush win rate.
Green Bay’s defense has been mediocre for years, even when the likes of Clark, Gary and Alexander have been at their best.
This year’s defense remains mediocre with five of these seven players providing disappointing production and the other two sidelined by injuries.
The pass rush, which looked like a powerhouse during training camp and the joint practice against Baltimore, has been a major disappointment.
What’s gone wrong?
“You’ve got to tell me,” Gary said after Monday’s practice.
Reminded he’s the professional so he would have a better answer, Gary replied:
“I don’t know. We’re just rushing, doing what we’ve got to do. The numbers are going to come. Numbers, people get misconstrued. Put on the tape, see how we’re playing, see how we’re setting edges, see how we’re putting pressure on quarterbacks. The numbers are going to come if we keep playing our fashion of ball.”
The season will depend on it.
Situational Shortcomings
Green Bay ranks third in total offense and 12th in total defense. It is outgaining its opponents by 70.6 yards per game, the fourth-best differential in the league, and are plus-six in turnovers.
Really, the Packers should be dominating. So, what is the disconnect?
Easy.
On offense, they are 19th on third down and 30th in the red zone.
On defense, they are an excellent sixth on third down but 20th in the red zone.
Of the 14 teams that would be in the playoffs if the season were to end today, only the Packers are 20th or worse in both red-zone categories.
With Love running the offense last year, the Packers were 19th in the red zone but first in goal-to-go success. With Joe Barry running the defense last year, the Packers were sixth in the red zone.
Other than turnovers, the easiest way to lose games is to kick field goals and give up touchdowns. The Packers are leaving too much production on the field.
Gutekunst recognized that fact when asked after the trade deadline what he wanted to see in the second half of the season.
“I think just more consistency and maybe a little bit better in situational football,” he said. “I think to be the team that can go deep in the playoffs and to contend for championships, you have to be that kind of team. We’re working towards that and I think these guys have had really good moments, but you’ve got to be consistent with that (and) you’ve got to be able to call upon that whenever you need it.”
