The Green Bay Packers know that wide receiver Christian Watson will likely miss at least half of the 2025 season as he rehabs from knee surgery. Watson suffered the injury in last year’s regular-season finale. But the coming year will be the final season on Watson’s rookie deal. So, GM Brian Gutekunst will have to decide whether to offer Watson a second contract or to let him test the free agent market next offseason.

The Packers traded up to get Watson and selected him with the first pick in the second round back in 2022. At 6’4” and 208 pounds, Watson possesses a rare combination of size and speed that gives him the potential to be a difference maker on the field.

The former North Dakota State star enjoyed his most productive season as a rookie in 2022. After a slow first half of the season, he came on strong down the stretch including a memorable three-touchdown effort against the Dallas Cowboys. Watson finished his rookie campaign with 41 catches for 611 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games.

In 2023, injuries limited Watson to just nine games and his production fell off to 28 catches for 422 yards and five touchdown catches. The Packers sent him to Madison to see a hamstring specialist with the hope of keeping him healthy in 2024.

While Watson’s hamstrings weren’t an issue for him in 2024, he did miss some time due. He played in 15 games although he was limited in some of them with other injuries. Watson caught 29 passes for 620 yards and two touchdowns. His average of 21.4-yards per catch was a career high. He suffered the torn ACL in Week 18.

Thus far through three seasons, Watson has made an impact when he’s healthy and on the field. He is the kind of player opposing defenses need to account for. That can open things up for other players in the Green Bay offense as defenses know they need to shade a safety to Watson’s side of the field.

Head coach Matt LaFleur recognizes the value that Watson brings to the offense. “It doesn’t help when you lose a guy like Christian Watson, and who knows when we’ll get him back. His physicality, his speed, he’s an intelligent player. You could move him from position to position within a game and not everybody can handle that. That is a big loss for us, but those other guys are going to have to pick up the slack.”

We still don’t know how many games Watson will be able to play in 2025. We also don’t know how the ACL injury will affect him when he does return to the lineup. Often, players need additional time after they start to play to get close to where they were before the injury.

Gutekunst will have to decide whether to offer Watson another contract for 2026 and beyond. There is no fifth-year option on Watson. The Packers did try to trade up into the late first round to select him, but they couldn’t pull off a deal until the Vikings gave them the first pick in the second round. That cost the Packers the fifth-year option on Watson which is only available to first round picks.

So, has Watson shown the Packers enough to earn a second contract with the team? When he’s been on the field, Watson has been a difference maker at times. But he hasn’t been consistently productive, in part due to injuries. If the most important ability in the NFL is availability, is Watson available often enough to justify another contract?

If he becomes a free agent, it is likely that at least one other team will take chance on Watson and make him a healthy offer to play for them. That makes it less likely that Gutekunst can make Watson an inexpensive or incentive-laden, prove-it deal, since he will likely get more money elsewhere.

If the Packers do add a wide receiver early in the draft and he plays well, that could change Gutekunst’s view of the situation. So could a strong performance by Watson after he returns.

Regardless, this will be a telling year for Watson, and he won’t even see the field until the season is at least half over.