We are a little over a week away from the start of the NFL combine in Indianapolis, Indiana. While that event is all about the NFL draft, everything else that happens in Indy is all about the future of the league including NFL free agency, trades and contract decisions.

For the Cleveland Browns, having the second overall pick in the draft and a trade request from DE Myles Garrett puts them in the spotlight of the league this offseason. We’ve mocked up a Browns offseason that included trading both the pick and Garrett to revamp the roster but the current expectation is that Garrett will remain with Cleveland this season.

Some have suggested giving Garrett another season to see what the Browns can do with all of their draft capital while others believe the team should blow it up and start over, at least to some extent. Our DBN roundtable looked at both options.

One reason Garrett has requested a trade is also a reason the team should at least consider it: Age.

Cleveland’s star defender will turn 30 near the end of next year’s regular season (December 29). Garrett is under contract for 2026 when he will be 30 for most of the year, which is an important performance cut-off. It used to be that 30 years old was the end of a running back’s prime but new data suggests that pass rushers also might face a steep drop-off:

With Myles Garrett's trade request in the news, part of the discussion is about how quickly a 30-yr old edge rusher declines with age.

We now have 8 seasons of Pass Rush Win Rate, and fortunately it turns out to be more than enough data for a solid age curve. pic.twitter.com/fqAxF87I1P

— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) February 12, 2025

Another data set looked at only elite defenders (All-Pro throughout the middle of their career) and found the same drop-off:

I did this looking only at super elite DL … specially guys who were all-pro at least 4x in career year 4-8 … and also guys who were still strong in that eight year—no drop off yet

Instead of win rate, I used Approximate Value. Randy White got better. Reggie White stayed great.… pic.twitter.com/hCcuVmhItO

— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) February 13, 2025

In some forms, that post will end with “Show more” which leaves out important words. The second sentence in Sando’s post in totality:

Instead of win rate, I used Approximate Value. Randy White got better. Reggie White stayed great. Most really fell off.

Some might wonder why the Browns would expect a big return if other teams have this information as well. The simple answer is that for Cleveland, which is highly unlikely to be competitive for the Super Bowl in 2025, the risk of falloff beyond this season is a much greater concern. A team that is within their Super Bowl window next year that trades for Garrett would be worried mostly about 2025 and 2026 with the move, increasing Garrett’s value to them.

Will the Browns trade Garrett? It still seems unlikely but, given the recent data, the team will be betting that he is the exception to the rule, like Randy and Reggie White noted above.