San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey has yet to make his season debut, but all signs point to him returning soon. Here’s the latest on McCaffrey’s injury and when we might see the reigning Offensive Player of the Year back on the field.
What Is Christian McCaffrey’s Injury?
McCaffrey has spent the entirety of the 2024 campaign on injured reserve while battling Achilles tendinitis in both legs. He sought treatment from a specialist in Germany, and the injury was way worse than the 49ers initially suspected based on head coach Kyle Shanahan’s comments during the preseason (when he referred to it as a minor calf strain) and after Week 1 (when he labeled McCaffrey “day to day”).
After he was a surprise inactive for the 49ers’ season-opener, McCaffrey was subsequently placed on injured reserve.
For more clarity on McCaffrey’s Achilles tendinitis injury, the Mayo Clinic defines it as “an overuse injury of the Achilles tendon, the band of tissue that connects calf muscles at the back of the lower leg to your heel bone.”
The clinic also says the injury “most commonly occurs in runners who have suddenly increased the intensity or duration of their runs.”
Mayo indicates most cases of Achilles tendinitis can be treated with at-home care under a doctor’s supervision. Still, more severe cases “can lead to tendon tears (ruptures) that may require surgical repair.”
When Will McCaffrey Return From Injury?
While the 49ers have yet to designate McCaffrey to return from injured reserve, the veteran running back is close to getting back on the field.
The 49ers are coming off their Week 9 bye, and McCaffrey is reportedly targeting a Week 10 return against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
“It depends how this week goes,” Shanahan said during the bye week. “He’s had no setbacks, so it looks like we’re on track, but he’s going to hit it hard this week while we’re gone. … As long as it all goes good, hopefully, we’ll get him back in practice next week.”
This lines up with what ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on “The Pat McAfee Show.” Schefter noted that McCaffrey has had no setbacks and is poised to return versus the Bucs.
"We have some positive Christian McCaffrey news..
So far has has not had any setbacks during his recovery..
Right now he's poised to get back and play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers" @AdamSchefter #PMSLive #FTTB pic.twitter.com/crXXZvcZ2v
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) October 28, 2024
The 49ers are 4-4 and amid a crowded NFC West race. The Niners need McCaffrey back, especially with WR1 Brandon Aiyuk (ACL) out for the season.
How Has McCaffrey’s Absence Impacted the 49ers?
Despite being without McCaffrey and RB2 Elijah Mitchell all season, San Francisco still ranks fourth in both rushing yards per game (159) and yards per rush (5.1).
Jordan Mason’s 685 yards are the third-most in the NFL behind only Baltimore Ravens star Derrick Henry (946) and Philadelphia Eagles star Saquon Barkley (766), even though he has exited two games early due to injuries. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per attempt.
Also, rookie Isaac Guerendo has played well when called upon, turning 37 carries into 227 yards (6.1 yards per attempt) and one touchdown.
Mason was an undrafted free agent, while Guerendo was a fourth-round pick.
It’s not uncommon for unheralded backs to shine in a Shanahan-led system. Six different running backs rushed for at least 1,000 yards under Kyle’s father, Mike Shanahan. Terrell Davis (fourth round), Olandis Gary (fourth round), Alfred Morris (sixth round), and Mike Anderson (sixth round) all had great seasons under the head coach, with Davis becoming a Hall of Famer and once rushing for 2,008 yards in a single year.
"[Kyle Shanahan] has taken Mike's system and just put that thing on a different level, extracted all the greatness from it, and added his tweaks and twists. And all the coaches who spawned from that. It shows you why we were really great and it leads back to Mike Shanahan."… pic.twitter.com/PkmxaGZpUV
— GoJo and Golic (@GoJoandGolic) October 4, 2024
While the Niners’ rushing attack hasn’t dropped off significantly in McCaffrey’s absence, there’s no question that the offense would be scarier with CMC in the backfield.
Perhaps the biggest area where San Francisco misses McCaffrey is his impact in the passing attack, as Mason (10 receptions for 86 yards) and Guerendo (four receptions for 22 yards) can’t replicate McCaffrey’s production through the air. With Aiyuk out for the season, the 49ers can’t wait to get McCaffrey back as a weapon in the passing game.
From a fantasy football standpoint, Mason is a must-start as long as he continues to suit up without McCaffrey. If Mason were to miss time, Guerendo would be the San Francisco RB to roster and would likely become a strong Flex play. But while Mason has been excellent for fantasy managers who took a flier on him, he’ll no longer have stand-alone value with McCaffrey expected to return in Week 10.
When McCaffrey is healthy, he’s been the every-down back for the 49ers. Last season, he played a monstrous 80.2% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps (excluding the Week 18 game he sat out with playoff positioning clinched), so there’s plenty of room to come down while still maintaining bell-cow status.
It’s possible the 49ers will still give Mason some snaps and carries to ensure McCaffrey stays healthy, but that won’t be enough work for Mason to remain fantasy-relevant.
Shanahan has consistently given McCaffrey a huge workload despite past promises to lighten his usage. Perhaps this situation finally leads Shanahan to keep his word, but we shouldn’t assume that McCaffrey will be in any type of committee until we actually see it.
