Let’s go back to April 28th, 2016. After a long season, the Dallas fanbase was split on the Cowboys draft plan. Will the team take Ezekiel Elliott, paired with a defensive player in the second round, or Jalen Ramsey, followed by Derrick Henry?

Looking back now, the choice was clear: take the superstar cornerback and the still dominant, but lower-ranked running back.

The Cowboys could have a Super Bowl right now if that draft included Ramsey, Henry, and Dak Prescott, as opposed to Elliott and Jaylon Smith.

2016 Cowboys take Jalen Ramsey at No. 4 over Zeke and “settle” for Derrick Henry in Round 2 https://t.co/lmdgX6DMJU

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 7, 2024

Of course, Dallas can’t go back in time and change their strategy, but they will have to make a similar decision soon. Will the front office target Ashton Jeanty in the first round, or a later-round running back in a stacked class at the position?

April may seem far away now, but the work on the decision has already started, so let’s look at how both options could work for the 2025 Cowboys draft.

Repeating History: The Ashton Jeanty Route

If you’ve been following the Cowboys’ offseason moves, you know that they are prioritizing the running game right now.

Hiring Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, former Cardinals offensive line coach Klayton Adams as offensive coordinator, and interviewing Texas Longhorns running back coach Tashard Choice are all strong indicators of that.

Many are assuming the natural next step is shooting for the stars and drafting Jeanty with the 12th pick.

Doing this would essentially be a repeat of the 2016 Elliott pick, as the front office would be choosing the high-profile running back with hopes that he extends their aging quarterback’s career.

While Tony Romo’s career never had the chance to be preserved by Elliott, we can still admit the pick was good.

He became one of the best running backs in franchise history.

With Jeanty’s talent and an increasing focus on the offensive line and running game, it is hard to argue that he wouldn’t give a huge boost to the Dallas offense.

If the Cowboys draft does run through Ashton Jeanty, you can expect a large workload for the Boise State alum and groans from half the fanbase as they recall the “what if” from 2016.

Trench Building: Avenging The Past

If you really want to see the Cowboys’ fanbase battle it out, see what would happen in the universe where they pass on Jeanty in favor of a prospect in the trenches.

Some would love it, and shout about how running backs shouldn’t be first-round picks, while others send very angry tweets toward Jerry Jones for passing on a big-name, superstar running back like Jeanty.

The truth is, learning from the past and drafting a player in the trenches could prove to be the right move, especially if Dallas lands a talented second-round running back.

They could aim for a player like Ohio State Tackle Josh Simmons, or Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams at 12, and focus on the skill positions later.

There is no guarantee that a Cowboys draft class that forms the opposite from 2016 will become a better class; what it can do is ensure you’re getting the most bang for your buck. Trends show mid-to-late round running backs are extremely effective.

Of the NFL’s top 15 rushers this season, just five were first-round picks.

So, if the Cowboys can still build a dominant running game and improve on the offensive or defensive line in the first round, shouldn’t they do that instead?

You can certainly make that argument, though there is more nuance to it than that. No draft pick is a guaranteed success, and passing on Jeanty for a later pick could be a disaster if he turns out, but your “steal” doesn’t.

The Bottom Line: How Will Dallas Draft?

This first decision of the Schottenheimer era will tell us a lot.

Will Jones and his new head coach make headlines and draft the Heisman trophy runner-up, or will they play the value game and wait out their next starting running back?

History tells us that Dallas has no problem taking a running back at the top end of the draft, but that could change with Elliott’s tenure ending without a Super Bowl victory, or even an NFC Championship appearance.

If the Cowboys draft Jeanty, it could prove beneficial in the stat sheet, but not in their long-term postseason goals.