It seems unconscionable that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t be recognized on any list of top players in the NFL.
Mahomes’ utter stranglehold over the league has made him a villain among fans across the country, and his ubiquity in contemporary marketing has borne expectations rarely seen of any athlete in any sport.
Mahomes’ latest award snub came from the Associated Press, which determined that Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, Buffalo Bills signal-caller Josh Allen, and Cincinnati Bengals passer Joe Burrow had put together better seasons than the reigning Super Bowl MVP, who led his team to a league-best 15-2 record.
On its face, it seems Mahomes was robbed, but the experts at Pro Football Network compiled this list of facts that provide context about why Jackson, Allen, and Burrow were more logical candidates for All-Pro recognition:
Our QB+ metric is an all-inclusive grading system designed to evaluate quarterback play from every angle in an analytical way. Every week, every QB (minimum 15 pass attempts) earns a grade (0-100) based on their performance in the most impactful situations. Here is a look at the rolling averages in QB+ for the signal-callers who received AP All-Pro votes compared to those of Patrick Mahomes for the 2024 season:
Could Mahomes’ lower grade be explained away by the Chiefs’ schedule? In theory, yes. Our QB+ metric deals more with the production of the signal caller than it does his opposition. That said, when stacking up how these four quarterbacks and comparing their output in each specific game to the average QB+ allowed by that specific opponent over the course of the entire 2024 season, we come to the same conclusion that the two-time reigning Super Bowl champion simply didn’t produce the way of the Pro Bowlers from the AFC:
It’s pretty clear that Mahomes’ typical day at the office in 2024 didn’t come close to the campaigns put forward by Burrow, Allen, and Jackson … but maybe the height of his powers was greater? Maybe his “good” was as impactful as any QB in the conference?
In the past, sure, but not in 2024. These quarterbacks combined for 14 games with an 85 QB+ grade or better — eight from Jackson, four from Allen, two from Burrow, and zero from Mahomes.
If you’re looking for the elusive “clutch gene” to bail you out in wanting to prove Mahomes worthy, you’re missing the boat. When the game was within a single score this season:
- Jackson: 9.0 yards per attempt, 7.5% TD rate, 8.3 TD-to-INT rate
- Burrow: 7.7 yards per attempt, 6.5% TD rate, 8.5 TD-to-INT rate
- Allen: 7.0 yards per attempt, 4.7% TD rate, 2.5 TD-to-INT rate
- Mahomes: 6.8 yards per attempt, 4.4% TD rate, 2.4 TD-to-INT rate
