Ten games isn’t a significant sample size. There are plenty of NHL teams that look good after 10 games and end the season poorly.

For many, including Blackhawks captain Nick Foligno, it’s about where a team stands in late November: the U.S. Thanksgiving deadline.

“If you really look at the history of it, it’s true,” Foligno said recently. “You got the outliers, but I just think starts matter in the NHL. It doesn’t have to be that you’re five games over .500, it’s just you have to be in the mix at that time whether .500 or whatever you are.”

Ten games in, the Blackhawks aren’t considered “in the mix.” They’re near the bottom of the league with a .350 points percentage. Their seven points are less than through 10 games last season. Despite the standings, this season does feel different. The Blackhawks have led, tied or been within a goal in the third period in nine of the 10 games.

“I’ve liked how we’ve played,” Blackhawks coach Luke Richardson said after his team’s 10th game, a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Monday. “We could’ve easily had a few more wins. This team and the whole organization is tired of the moral victories, so tonight was a big step for us to take a real victory and put it in the back of our minds how we did it. Now we have two days to sit on it instead of sitting on a loss. I want to see how we process that and move forward with some pep in our step.”

The Blackhawks have 12 games until Thanksgiving. We should know much more about them then. For now, here’s what I think and what I know about the Blackhawks after 10 games.

What I know: The Blackhawks are a much more true NHL team this season. The roster no longer has so many borderline NHL/AHL players whose performances vary greatly from game to game. By adding more legitimate NHL players, general manager Kyle Davidson has given Richardson consistency and players who can be held to NHL standards.

The Blackhawks are passing the eye test. It’s not perfect by any means, but you can see players who belong in the NHL and who show NHL habits. Coaches often cite predictability, and the Blackhawks have a lot of guys who play as expected.

The analytics support that, too. The Blackhawks are defending better and less than last season, when their opponents averaged around 57 percent of shot attempts at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. That’s down to about 53 percent this season. The Blackhawks have also had a higher Corsi percentage in half of their games this season. The Blackhawks were outscored 202-118 at five-on-five last season — second-worst in the league. They’re being outscored 18-17 this season and are 20th in the NHL. Their expected goals percentage has improved, too. They were 31st with a 42.32 percentage last season and are 21st with a 48.37 percentage this season.

What I think: The Blackhawks’ offense is likely what will keep it from really jumping in the standings this season. Some players who aren’t scoring now will come around, but it’s just as likely some of the players who are scoring will fall off. Shooting percentages will even out over time. It’s just difficult to see where that additional offense will come from.

The Blackhawks are already scoring at a higher rate than last season. They averaged 2.17 goals last season, worst in the league, and they’re tied for 25th this season at 2.7. They have also scored 2.16 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season compared to a rate of 1.77 last season. The hurdle is elevating that even more to get to the middle of the NHL pack.

The Blackhawks have a lot of players who have scored 20 goals (or near it) in the past. It’s just unknown how many will get there this season. Connor Bedard is definitely one. Tyler Bertuzzi has often reached that mark, but his slow start isn’t a great sign. Teuvo Teräväinen is usually around 20 goals, so we’ll see. Taylor Hall is a possibility. Philipp Kurashev scored a career-high 18 goals last season, but can he do it again, especially if he isn’t given the same opportunities? Jason Dickinson is coming off a 22-goal season but has just one so far. Foligno could get there if he’s playing in a top-six role like he has been, but that’s not a given. Craig Smith and Ryan Donato are scoring at high rates, but they’ll have to show that over a larger sample size. Andreas Athanasiou and Lukas Reichel were penciled in for 20 goals last season and dropped off. Athanasiou is often a healthy scratch now. Reichel is finally showing some positive signs. There are just a lot of what-ifs.

What I know: Connor Bedard is taking that next step, even if statistically it’s not astronomical yet.

He’s doing more of this, where he’s backchecking and battling for pucks. That’s maturity.

But even his underlying analytics are improving. At five-on-five, his shot attempts, shots on goal and scoring chances are up from his rookie season. His line is spending more time in the offensive zone, and he’s part of the reason. His Corsi percentage has increased to 47.87, which is more than five percentage points higher than last season. The quality is improving, too. He has an on-ice 53.76 expected goals percentage, which is up 10 percentage points from last season.

Bedard will likely average a point per game and score 25 goals by just doing what he’s been doing. He’s around those rates now. But if he’s going to increase those totals, the power play is probably the area to do it. He has zero goals on the power play so far. His attempts and shots on goal are down. The opposition has something to do with that, but the Blackhawks need to figure out how to counter it. Plenty of stars get game-planned and still get theirs. The Blackhawks brought in Bertuzzi and Teräväinen to help.

What I think: The Blackhawks probably could use a definitive second-line center right now, but there’s not one coming. Davidson knew coming into the season that this could be a problem position, but he didn’t address it in the offseason because he wanted to give Frank Nazar a shot at the job.

Nazar didn’t have the camp they were hoping for, and assigning him to Rockford made sense. He’s trending in a positive direction and could probably be brought up already. The Blackhawks aren’t going to rush him, though. He’ll get his look again later this season, but they’ll let him cook in Rockford.

Until Nazar gets that call, the Blackhawks have to make good with what they have. Davidson isn’t seeking out a trade for a center. He has Nazar and plenty of other center prospects coming. Oliver Moore and Ryan Greene should also be in Chicago by the end of the season. That leaves Richardson to try to figure out who works best together. He’s already tried a bunch of players. Foligno is his latest option. Reichel may still make the most sense if he can continue playing as he is. His 66.7 carry-in percentage is second on the team to Bedard, per Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, through 10 games.

What I know: Davidson’s offseason moves have been a mixed bag. All the veterans have brought up the level of the group, but individually they have varied in success:

Bertuzzi: Expectations were high. He’s the first free agent Davidson paid for in terms of years. Bertuzzi signed a four-year contract, which means he should still be around when Davidson hopes to turn the corner. Bertuzzi has started off slow over the past few years, but his zero points at five-on-five this season is still hard to explain away.

T.J. Brodie: Brodie’s game took a dip with the Toronto Maple Leafs last season. Whether that was a sign of things to come was the question. So far, Brodie has struggled with the Blackhawks. They’ve been outscored 8-2 with him on the ice at five-on-five. He has the worst Corsi percentage among the team’s defensemen and has helped create minimal offense.

Laurent Brossoit: Brossoit has been out with an injury the entire season. He should be back soon and replace Arvid Söderblom on the roster.

Patrick Maroon: Maroon’s hands are still elite. He can set up teammates with the best of them. He’s already shown that several times. Overall, his analytics aren’t great. His 42.47 expected goals percentage is the lowest among the regulars. The Blackhawks brought him in to be a protector. Richardson values that as well.

Alec Martinez: Martinez played in four games before suffering an injury. He’s supposedly close to returning, too. He’ll likely replace Nolan Allan.

Mikheyev: The Blackhawks could use more offense out of Mikheyev, but he’s playing his role alongside Dickinson. That line has the toughest matchups and starts the most outside the offensive zone, but it flips the ice and drives possession.

Smith: Smith has been the surprise signing. He was a healthy scratch for two games, but he’s proven his worth when given a chance. He has three goals and two assists in five games. He’s efficient when he’s out there.

Teräväinen: Teräväinen has played as expected. He’s helping create for others. He leads the Blackhawks with 23 primary shot assists and is tied for a team-high 11 scoring chance assists in Sznajder’s data. If he and Bedard can continue to form chemistry, that will be worth every cent of Teräväinen’s three-year deal.

Other takeaways

• Alex Vlasic deserves his share of credit, too. He continues to evolve. His defensive game is on point again, but it’s his offense that is coming around. He’s starting to use his skating and size to create for himself and others. His power-play assist in Monday’s win is an example. Could he make sense for the U.S. in the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? You’d think he’s getting a long look.

• Petr Mrázek is carrying over what he did last season. His overall save percentage is subpar at .896, but that’s largely due to allowing six goals against the Canucks. Consistency is what matters. Based on Hockey Reference’s formula, five of his eight starts have been quality starts, tied for second in the NHL as of Wednesday.

• Reichel is being more aggressive. He’s fifth on the team in shot attempts per 60 and first with shots on goal per 60 at five-on-five.

• Seth Jones has been better this season on zone entries per the tracking data. Opponents aren’t getting as many scoring chances against him off entries. Talking to him, he mentioned the neutral-zone system helping that. Regardless, it was an area he struggled in before.

• While Bedard isn’t scoring on the power play, the unit is faring well compared to last season, scoring seven goals on 33 chances for a 21.2 percentage, 13th in the league. It was tied for 28th at 16.6 last season.

• Connor Murphy has been one of the team’s better defensemen in the defensive zone. The Blackhawks are allowing 24.2 shots on goal against per 60 minutes with him on the ice, which is second-best on the team. That number was at 30.84 last season. When he’s on the ice, the Blackhawks are giving up fewer scoring chances and high-danger chances than in previous seasons, too. He isn’t creating much offense, but the Blackhawks can probably live with that.