A cold, snowy Lambeau Field will set the stage for Monday Night Football as the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints. Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth with a win, while New Orleans could be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win on Sunday.

Green Bay’s offense has a favorable matchup. They rank in the top ten in every EPA statistical category and are a top-five rushing team per Pro Football Focus. Josh Jacobs is also a top-five running back in yards after contact and missed tackles forced.

PFF ranks the Saints’ defense as a bottom-five unit, including 22nd in tackling. They sit 28th in EPA per rush, 30th in rushing success rate, 31st in yards per carry, and 30th in run defense DVOA.

Jacobs has had 20+ touches in four of the last five games, including 30 in Green Bay’s 30-13 win in Seattle. I expect him to be a crucial part of the game plan on Monday. New Orleans has a bad run defense, and as a dome team, they now face the challenge of stopping one of the top running backs in a cold Lambeau.

Getting Jacobs involved is crucial for Green Bay’s chances. They’re 4-0 when he has 25+ rushing attempts and 4-1 when he has at least 18. The cold weather at Lambeau adds another layer, making it even more logical to give him a bigger workload. New Orleans isn’t accustomed to the cold and will have to tackle a 223-pound, elusive back for four quarters. They haven’t shown they can stop the run all year, so it’s unlikely they’ll suddenly find a magical formula to succeed in these conditions.

There’s a Brazilian soccer adage: “Não tem mais bobo no futebol” – “There’s no more fools in football.” The Saints are no fools. They’ve studied Green Bay’s offense and know the Packers are at their best when Jacobs gets the ball. However, if they focus too much on stopping him, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft are playmakers who can punish them through the air.

New Orleans’ defense has allowed 6.3 yards after the catch per reception, the fourth most in the league. They’ve also allowed the most yards after the catch over expected (+451). Meanwhile, Green Bay’s pass catchers lead the league with 7.1 yards after the catch per reception, with Jayden Reed (389) and Tucker Kraft (383) leading the team.

Reed has averaged the fourth most yards after the catch per reception among wide receivers, while Kraft leads all tight ends with a minimum of 40 targets, averaging 9.3 yards after the catch per reception. Kraft is also Green Bay’s first tight end since 2009 to record at least 300 yards after the catch, with 12 quarters still left to play.

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The Packers need to get the ball to their three-headed playmaking monster. The beauty is their game plan doesn’t have to be one-dimensional. They can commit to the run with Jacobs while designing quick-developing plays for him, Kraft, and Reed in the passing game. The Saints will have to keep guessing, and the cold will make it even harder for them to tackle and breathe. Green Bay has a prime opportunity to outthink and out-tough their opponent.

Earlier this year, Green Bay’s 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions sparked a debate about whether the elements still favored the Packers. However, they have the best home record in the league since 2008 and have continued to thrive in those conditions recently.

This season, they held warm-weather teams like the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers to just 13.5 points per game. The Packers recorded their highest pressure total of the season against Miami and sacked Tua Tagovailoa five times. At that point in the season, they also held the Niners to their season-low in points.

Another cold, snowy chapter awaits the Packers in the Frozen Tundra. With January football approaching, a win will secure Green Bay’s postseason spot and build momentum heading into the final two games of the regular season.