This one could get ugly.
New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) warms up against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
The 3-11 Patriots are traveling up to Buffalo, where the high temperature is expected to be 18 degrees, and the low is 2, to take on the 11-3 Bills, who are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, at 4:25 p.m. ET.
The Bills are favored by 14 points, and that figure should probably be higher, since the Patriots just lost by 13 points to the Cardinals.
If the Patriots have a relatively normal end to the season, then head coach Jerod Mayo’s job seems like it will be safe. But if the wheels fall off, then things can change quickly in the NFL. And the Patriots have to face this Bills team twice over the final three weeks of the season.
For the Patriots to remain competitive Sunday against the Bills, their best players must step up.
QB DRAKE MAYE
Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux dubbed Drake Maye as “Josh Allen 2.0” earlier this season.
It’s a fair comparison.
Maye is slightly smaller than Allen, but he has the Bills QB’s playmaking skills with this legs and arm. And Maye is significantly more accurate than Allen was at this point in his career as a rookie in 2018.
What the Patriots need is for the Drake Maye who led the team on two scoring drives at the end of Sunday’s loss to the Cardinals to show up from the first snap at Highmark Stadium.
That will require some playcalling adjustments from offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, because the Patriots will need to be aggressive all game.
TE HUNTER HENRY
Henry and fellow veteran tight end Austin Hooper have been Maye’s most dependable passing targets this season.
Oddly, Henry has had a difficult time finding the end zone despite already setting a career-high with 62 receptions through 14 games.
The red zone is an area where the Patriots must improve, and it would be helpful if Henry could start producing better in the end zone, where he has just one touchdown this season.
It hasn’t exclusively been a Henry problem with scoring touchdowns. Hooper leads pass-catchers with three scores. DeMario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk are tied for second on the team with two touchdowns apiece. Henry is one of seven players with one touchdown. That list includes wide receiver K.J. Osborn, who is no longer on the team, and left tackle Vederian Lowe.
RG MIKE ONWENU
The Bills’ offense is the strength of their team, but their defense has been solid, as well, ranking 14th in EPA (expected points added) per play.
The two players the Patriots need to worry about most are edge defender Gregory Rousseau and defensive tackle Ed Oliver.
“Defensively, to me it starts up front. A couple good edge rushers in Rousseau and [A.J.] Epenesa, very good players,” Mayo said Wednesday. “To me, it really starts with Ed Oliver. I think I’ve been a fan since he was in college, very disruptive player, and you can tell he’s really coming to his own and makes this defense go.”
Oliver is coming off his best game of the season, when he registered nine pressures against the Lions.
Owenu, center Ben Brown and left guard Layden Robinson will all have to deal with Oliver, but Onwenu should be able to hold his own best. Onwenu had had an up-and-down season, but he didn’t allow any pressures in Week 15 against the Cardinals as one of the Patriots’ best offensive linemen.
As for any potential changes on the line this week, Mayo said, “we’re always trying to put the best guys out there that give us the best opportunity to win.”
DE KEION WHITE
You’d like to see a little bit more dominance out of White as the Patriots’ best pass rusher, but he’s done a better job of containing quarterbacks since the beginning part of the season.
That will be key this week with Allen on the docket. The Patriots need to be able to keep Allen in the pocket and get some pressure on him.
Of Allen’s 13 turnover-worthy plays on 480 dropbacks this season, nine have come on the 154 snaps he’s been pressured.
It would be helpful if Yannick Ngakoue, Deatrich Wise and Christian Barmore could apply some pressure on Allen, as well.
CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ
What more can you say about Gonzalez? Sunday’s performance against the Cardinals proved that he’s being severely underrated around the league given where he stands in Pro Bowl voting.
Gonzalez ranks 12th among qualified cornerbacks this season with a 75.4 PFF grade. He’s first with an 88.7 mark since Week 10.
Gonzalez isn’t only great in coverage. It’s also been somewhat of a surprise to see how well he’s tackled and performed in run defense this season.
There isn’t an obvious candidate for Gonzalez to cover among top Bills wide receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel, so it might be best for him to just cover one side in this matchup.
It would be helpful if Gonzalez could help to generate a turnover, however.
