Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, took a heck of a body contorting hit last Sunday towards the end the Kansas City Chiefs 21-7 win over the Cleveland Browns.

Mahomes was tackled low from behind and then hit high from the front. His ankle was caught and twisted in the melee. He has been diagnosed with a “mild” high right ankle sprain.

With Kansas City having only a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills for the No. 1 seed in the question arises should Mahomes play in any of the remaining games this season given that the Chiefs have clinched their Division. Many think Kansas City should approach Mahomes’ availability cautiously, but not all.

Andy Reid stated today the Mahomes status is “day-to-day”. In Football jargon, this designation means that Mahomes’ status will be monitored before the team’s Week 16, game against the Houston Texans.

However, Ian Rapoport has stated the teams official designation of Mahomes is “week-to-week”. The “week to week” diagnosis, designated by the team, usually means Mahomes will likely miss at least the Houston contest. When an NFL player is designated “week to week”, he typically will miss at least one game.

Given the diagnosis of “mild” high ankle sprain, the Mahomes’ ankle injury isn’t expected to be long-term. But it must be noted that a right handed quarterback gains speed and power throwing the ball by stepping into the throw and pushing off the right ankle. Anything less than 100% on that right ankle will undoubtably effect Mahomes’ throwing ability.

So, while it isn’t yet clear exactly how long Mahomes will be out due to his injury, it appears he may be able to return for the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

When asked about his ability to play, Mahomes said he would “get after the rehab” in his recovery and “try to be ready for next week.”

“You know what you have to do to get back, and I think that’s the most important thing,…And now we just get back to the rehab part, the treatment part, and try to get ourselves ready on a short week against a good football team.”

Whether or Not Mahomes Plays the Rest of the Regular NFL Season is a Gamble

Kansas City’s schedule is not exactly favorable for maintaining the top seed in the AFC, particularly if Mahomes can’t play for the next few weeks. On a short week, the Chiefs play the Houston Texans. The following week, on Christmas Day, Kansas City plays the Pittsburg Steelers, in Pittsburgh. In week 18, KC plays the Denver Broncos also on the road.

But the Buffalo Bills have the inside track to the the AFC’s number one seed despite being two games behind the Chiefs at this point and time. The Bills play the New England Patriots in Buffalo, the New York Jets in Buffalo, then the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.

Buffalo is favored to win and should win all three of its remaining games. So for the purposes of the rest of this article, it will be assumed Buffalo does in fact win all three of their remaining games.

Should Patrick Mahomes Play on Christmas Day?

So the question remains: If Buffalo wins this upcoming weekend, and Kansas City loses to Huston Texans without Mahomes, should the KC quarterback return for the Steelers game the following week and risk re-injuring his ankle? The answer should, in part, be determined based on the records of both KC and Buffalo come Christmas Day.

If December 25th arrives and Buffalo has beaten New England, regardless of whether  Kansas City has lost against Houston, the Kansas City Chief’s organization will have a tough decision to make regarding Patrick Mahomes. After all, they will still have a shot at the #1 AFC seed and a Week 1 playoff bye.

Since Mahomes probably will be ruled out of this week’s Houston game, the focus of Kansas City’s decision will center around the Pittsburgh Steelers game on Christmas Day.  At that point the front office will have to ruminate on the following  issues:

1.)  A bye could be important allowing Mahomes to totally heal up for a deep playoff run. KC could decide to risk it all and play Mahomes against the Steelers even if his right ankle is 75%, or less recovered. After all, playing Mahomes is KC’s best, (some say only), chance to defeat Pittsburgh.

2.) On the other hand, if Mahomes plays in the Pittsburgh game with the ankle being only 75% or less healed, and, win or lose that game, he re-aggravates that high ankle  sprain, it would effectively end KC’s bid for a 3rd consecutive Super Bowl victory.

Having Mahomes play at 75% or less, hoping he plays well enough and win two of the remaining three games is betting against the odds, given the Chiefs have already clinched the Division. But IF he plays, IF the Chiefs win 2 of the remaining games, and IF Mahomes does not sustain further injury, the Chiefs can hold on to the #1 seed and secure a crucial bye that might allow Mahomes a week longer an be 100% healthier when the playoffs roll around.

But that is a lot of “IFs”.

Mahomes’ total recovery would aide in a deep run into the playoffs and perhaps a Super Bowl “Three-Peat”.  That said, the Kansas City Chiefs, and most importantly, Patrick Mahomes, may be better served if the team takes no chances, doesn’t play Mahomes in any of the next three games, and the Chiefs ride into the Playoffs as the Division Champion. This action would allow Mahomes time to heal and be healthier, if not totally recovered.

As such the Chiefs may very well elect to sit him for the rest of the regular season. While Mahomes would surely kick and scream, and fans would cry foul, the Kansas City Chiefs Front Office is about numbers…particularly the “analytics”.  If the the Buffalo Bills win this Sunday and the Chiefs lose against the Houston Texans, analytics will dictate that Patrick Mahomes sits for the rest of the 2024 regular season. This action will allow Patrick Mahomes to be ready for the only thing that matters to him and the Chiefs: The Playoffs and a Super Bowl run!