Over the course of his breakthrough third season, Jameson Williams has proven to be more than just a deep threat. Big plays have been common, as evidenced by being third in the league in yards per catch entering Week 15 (18.2), but has routinely made tough catches and he’s also ninth in the league in yards after the catch (354) despite missing two games due to a suspension.
Williams is losing some usage to the emergence of Tim Patrick lately, but his 22 targets over the last three games is nothing to sneeze at and he’s a threat to break a big play whenever he’s on the field.
Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills is in line to be high-scoring (54.5-point over-under according to FanDuel Sportsbook, odds subject to change). So it certainly seems to be a game where fantasy football managers who have any Lion or Bill will be starting them in some capacity. We already know where the Lions’ running back duo has a big matchup advantage.
Any question in that regard about Williams, perhaps rooted in Patrick’s emergence, has been answered for this week.
Jameson Williams has a great matchup vs. the Bills
In the Week 15 edition of “3 WR-CB matchups to target and 3 to avoid”, Nic Bodiford of Pro Football Focus has Williams’ matchup against Bills cornerback Ja’Marcus Ingram in the “target” column.
“Buffalo exited Week 14 with multiple defensive injuries, including to No. 2 perimeter cornerback Rasul Douglas (59.2 PFF coverage grade) and safety Taylor Rapp (50.3), likely leaving Ingram to defend Williams without sufficient deep-field coverage. Williams lines up wide-left at a 35.7% pre-snap plurality rate, followed by a 34.2% wide-right rate and a 29.6% slot rate. Those tendencies should yield at least a 30.0% snap share against Ingram.”
“Among 134 cornerbacks with at least 85 coverage snaps, Ingram ranks tied for 12th worst in yards allowed per coverage snap (1.58), ninth worst in open-target rate (64.7%) and second worst in explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.0%). His 55.4 PFF coverage grade ranks 98th.”
Bodiford noted Buffalo’s general recent struggles defending downfield throws to fortify the point about Williams.
“From Weeks 10-14, the team ranked 21st in yards allowed per coverage snap (11.68), 29th in catch rate allowed (61.8%) and dead last in open-target rate (52.9%) against targets thrown at least 12 yards downfield.”
“Among 33 wide receivers with at least 14 targets thrown between the painted numbers and at least 10 yards downfield, Williams ranks fourth in yards per route run (17.84), third in yards per reception (28.3) and second in yards after the catch per reception (13.6).”
Dan Pizzuta of The 33rd Team outlined similar data on that latter front. Williams has 14 20-plus yard receptions this season, and 11 of them have been caught between the numbers. So it’s no surprise (h/t to Pizzuta) that Williams has the highest average yards after the catch (8.8) among 65 receivers with an average depth of target of at least 10.
It all adds up to Williams being lined up for a nice outing on Sunday. He may not see 10 targets, but the Bills simply don’t have the secondary pieces to properly contain him. A lot of fantasy managers are down to playing DFS now, and with that in mind Williams is a nice pay-down value play on FanDuel ($6,400).
