The Patriots face an uphill battle in their final four games, but growing from last week’s self-scouting could lead to a post-bye bounceback.
The Patriots exit their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak this Sunday in Arizona.
As job security speculation swirls, specifically around Jerod Mayo, the head coach told reporters his sole focus is getting the team back on track.
“It’s all about winning,” he said on Wednesday. “It’s all about going out there, playing complementary football, and that’s what we want to see. That has been the goal. Early in the season, I said the same thing. When we get to the end of the season, we’ve got to make sure that we’re playing our best football, and that’s still the goal… To me, winning cures all. Whatever the expectations are, winning cures all, in my opinion.”
Despite their playoff hopes evaporating weeks ago, urgency and a strong finish have been common themes among New England players and coaches.
“Nobody wants a season like this year again,” rookie Drake Maye said during his weekly presser. “I think it’s two years in a row of a season like this, and you start to worry. I think there’s definitely some urgency. You see it in those guys and you see it especially in the veterans and in me. As a quarterback, there’s an urgency to get to that point and fix these things, work on them, get better, and use these last four games as a stepping stool.”
Along with a strong finish to the season, assessing the roster’s future outlook will be a key focus in the coming four weeks.
According to coaches, unproven young players will be evaluated through an uptick in reps. This likely means greater rotational roles for Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, and potentially Jaheim Bell. Caedan Wallace could replace Demontrey Jacobs as early as this week, but Cole Strange, who could also return on Sunday, has a less clear path to the field.
“Yeah, it’s tough to say,” Mayo responded when asked about a potential rotation with Ben Brown. “Especially early in the season, even through the midway point in the season, we’ve always talked about continuity up front. So, that’s really – I don’t want to say that’s off the table, but it’s a hard question to answer.”
Mayo noted that Strange has the flexibility to play center or guard. But with rookie Layden Robinson looking decent in his debut opposite Mike Onwenu, the latter seems less likely. The head coach also mentioned the decision will come down to who Maye is most comfortable taking snaps from.
However the lineups shake out, New England must capitalize on last week’s bye and improve both their Red Zone execution and overall communication.
“I think the bye week was a great time to go back and reflect, kind of do some self-scout work, see where we were doing good things, see where we needed to improve. And obviously, the Red Zone’s a big one there in the last few weeks,” offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said on Thursday. “The Red Zone for us is more about the detail of what we’re doing, where we’re supposed to be, and the spots we’re supposed to be in. It’s more about, you know, the execution. I think we just got to be tighter with where we are.”
KB said he was supposed to be a decoy on this mesh concept and create room for Hunter Henry
Instead, both receivers stop in the same area and Zaire Franklin (#44) isn't in conflict, exacerbating a loss from Onwenu vs Buckner pic.twitter.com/fEXcQq6m3q
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 2, 2024
“Just for us, it’s just forcing fast communication,” Covington explained. “So, if, you know, really offensively, if they come out, you know, with attack tempo, just making sure that we’re good on our communication.”
A little pitch and catch.
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/iznlbwbUy5
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 1, 2024
The Cardinals are one of the league’s streakiest teams, riding their own three-game losing streak after ripping off four straight wins. Still, they are too talented and well-coached for poor fundamentals and lapses in critical moments.
If the Patriots can get the little things done, these three keys should help them secure an upset win in the desert.
CONTAIN KYLER MURRAY
The Patriots hadn’t faced a true dual-threat quarterback until Anthony Richardson, and it was a rude awakening. The athletic marvel ran for fewer than 50 yards, but those included several key conversions, including two on scrambles.
“Not good enough,” Covington said when asked about his unit’s performance. “Didn’t get it done, especially in the critical part of the game. Gotta-have-it situations and stuff like that… That’s something for the next really four weeks we need to make sure that we’re on point with.”
New England faces three of the league’s best mobile quarterbacks over the next month-plus in Josh Allen (2x), Justin Herbert, and, this weekend, Kyler Murray. Murray hasn’t been used on many designed runs lately, but he’s been an elite scrambler when running or throwing.
“Same type of run ability. The ability to throw, use his legs, vision in the pocket, escape the pocket. Another threat in the running game. And then they also [he’s got] got good weapons to throw it to.”
Coaches noted Murray’s chemistry with do-it-all receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.–who should see a lot of Christian Gonzalez this weekend–and stud tight end Trey McBride–whose 19 conversions over the past three weeks are more than double the next closest Cardinal. Receiver Michael Wilson has also been impactful, leading Arizona with five explosive gains over that same span.
Jerod Mayo alluded to the size ARI has at WR (nearly all of whom are each 6’1″+) which could mean another active week for Alex Austin and Isaiah Bolden (slot?)
Marvin Jarrison Jr. and Michael Wilson make some impressive grabs, and both have scramble chemistry with Kyler Murray https://t.co/ut22QFsPLx pic.twitter.com/AGdIJlcYCE
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 11, 2024
New England should be able to handle Murray’s receiving corps in man, but they must be disciplined up front and potentially whip out the Longhorn package with Brenden Schooler spying the quarterback. Marrying rush and coverage will be critical, regardless of the defensive play call, and the Cardinals’ formidable line has one glaring weak spot.
Right guards Trystan Colon and Isaiah Adams have been among the league’s worst pass-blocking guards, with Colon (8.2%, 4th-highest)and Adams (11.8%, 6th-highest) ranking bottom-10 in pressure rate allowed since Week 12. This could set up a mismatch against Keion White, who’s been the league’s most efficient interior rusher this season.
If New England makes Murray uncomfortable in the pocket, his league-high seven turnover-worthy plays since Week 12 could help extend the defense’s two-game turnover streak.
BUILD ON THE OFFENSE’S PRE-BYE EFFICIENCY
Over the Patriots’ past four games, they’ve been a top-three unit when it comes to moving the ball. This improvement is largely thanks to Maye’s impressive play and an improved ground game.
The Patriots’ first-round pick has done an excellent job taking what defenses give him, and Week 13’s matchup marked his first game without a turnover-worthy play. Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have also been a potent one-two punch at tight end.
Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have caught more conversions (53) than any TE group outside of KC (59) and Baltimore (53)
A big chunk of those have come on out/sail routes, where Drake Maye has maximized his big targets with aggressiveness, anticipation, and accuracy pic.twitter.com/BTLtAPihlE
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 7, 2024
Maye is still getting on the same page as Kendrick Bourne and DeMario Douglas, but Bourne has improved each week, and Douglas has been one of the NFL’s best underneath threats.
This is all bad news for Arizona’s pass defense, which has been a bottom-10 group since exiting their Week 11 bye. They’ve been boom or bust against the run, ranking 3rd in tackles for loss or no gain (20) but leading the league in missed tackles (24).
Mike Onwenu and the inside/right continue to be the North star of the #Patriots downhill scheme. Vederian Lowe has also flashed potential as a down blocker, and he had some positive reps beside Layden Robinson
These are the runs where Rhamondre Stevenson is at his best pic.twitter.com/8IyXTMDv7Q
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 11, 2024
Potentially shaking up the front will come with growing pains, but ideally, Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Ginson can compensate. Stevenson has been less elusive after running into brick walls for weeks, but he’s looked good on gap runs. Gibson has been used sparingly, but that should change moving forward, as he’s been one of the most efficient players at his position since Week 10.
Antonio Gibson's 4 explosive runs vs Indy were the most for a #Patriots RB since Mondre in Wk 1
1 was his TD, and the others were OZ runs behind Trey Jacobs and the right side w/ assists at the 2nd level
Gibson brings a different blend of speed and elusiveness to the backfield https://t.co/oxJHvzRmrL pic.twitter.com/pY3rEETOZN
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 3, 2024
Building on this success will be crucial against the Cardinals, who boast one of the most daunting pressure schemes the offense has or will face this season.
BEAT THE BLITZ
As important as avoiding long yardage will be for New England, obvious passing downs are virtually impossible to avoid. In those situations, you can bet your bottom dollar that Arizona will send heat of some kind.
Maye’s raw stats against the blitz aren’t very impressive, but as is often the case, they don’t tell the whole story. Since Week 10, only Russell Wilson (79.0%), Kirk Cousins (74.4%), and Jalen Hurts (73.1%) have been more accurate than the rookie (73.0%) on such attempts.
Outside of a shaky game in Miami, Maye’s ability to identify pressure, adjust post-snap, and punish defenses has been rare for a freshman signal-caller.
Colts get a free rusher on a late blitz, but Drake Maye casually drifts away from pressure and hits Kayshon Boutte for the 2-point conversion pic.twitter.com/Iz1NlmcZhi
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 2, 2024
The Cardinals will put that proficiency to the test on Sunday. Their pass rush has been heated up in recent weeks, and their exotic pressures have contributed to the 2nd-most unblocked pressures since Week 12.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1866978313836573070
Maye’s pocket awareness and mobility have elevated his protection, but the offensive line has still been one of the leakiest in the NFL. Only the 49ers (23) and Dolphins (20) have allowed more unblocked pressures than New England (19) over the past five weeks.
Getting a look at Strange before the season’s end is necessary, but debuting him at center against this defense could be a trial by fire. Lack of chemistry with potentially both guard-tackle duos could also be a challenge when faced with line games.
Maye should have chances to make magic on broken plays, as no defense has allowed more scramble conversions than the Cardinals (seven) since Week 12. Still, he can only do so much when it comes to beating the blitz. This is especially true in an offense where the man in the middle calls the shots.
Whoever is setting protections and calling out the Mike on Sunday, the entire offense must see things through one set of eyes to limit unnecessary pressure and exploit voids in coverage.
