The Patriots have almost a 1-in-4 chance to get the No. 1 pick.
The New England Patriots moved up from the No. 4 pick to the No. 3 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft order after the results of the Week 14 games went final, and it’s still possible for the AFC East team to climb further before the 2024 regular season concludes.
But for that to happen, the Patriots would need one of the teams in front of them — the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) and New York Giants (2-11) — to lose at least one more game, and that assumes New England loses each of its four remaining matchups.
The most winnable game left on the Patriots’ schedule is Sunday’s Week 15 matchup versus the Arizona Cardinals on the road. The Cardinals have been inconsistent all season, but they are still in the NFC West title race despite having a 6-7 record. Arizona has lost three straight games and scored an average of just 15.3 points in those matchups.
If the Patriots don’t beat the Cardinals, they will likely lose their final three games and finish 3-14, which would be one win lower than their 2023 total. The Patriots’ final three games are against two playoff teams — Week 16 and 18 against the Buffalo Bills and Week 17 versus the Los Angeles Chargers.
So, what are the chances the Patriots land the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since 1993?
Here’s what ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects for the Patriots’ chances of earning the No. 1 pick, a top-five pick or a top-10 pick.
- FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23.5%
- FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 86.0%
- FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.7%
So, as you can see, there’s a pretty good chance the Patriots’ first-round pick will at least be in the top five. New England’s 23.5 percent chance to get the No. 1 pick is the second-highest behind only the New York Giants, who ESPN FPI projects having a 41 percent chance at the top overall selection.
The Patriots could go in several different directions with their top-five pick, assuming they keep it. Wide receiver, left tackle, edge rusher and cornerback are their most glaring roster needs.
Either way, it’s looking like the Patriots will pick in the top five in back-to-back years, which hasn’t happened since 1993 (Drew Bledsoe, No. 1) and 1994 (Willie McGinest, No. 4).
