The Kansas City Chiefs are the cream of the crop in today’s NFL, boasting three Super Bowl victories in the last six years and seven straight conference title game appearances.

The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, have one playoff win since 2014 and haven’t played in a conference championship game since 2007.

As different as they may seem, the 2024 versions of the Chiefs and Chargers are quite similar heading into their AFC West showdown on Sunday Night Football.

Both teams feature star quarterbacks, and while Patrick Mahomes is easily more accomplished, Justin Herbert’s size and arm talent make him a formidable foe.

Both clubs also put their trust in high-profile head coaches. Andy Reid has been among the NFL’s best coaches for 25 years and counting, while Jim Harbaugh’s trend of quick turnarounds is on track in his first year in Los Angeles.

Despite the quarterbacks and coaches receiving much of the attention from fans and media, the Chiefs and Chargers owe most of their success to their defenses.

Kansas City boasts an AFC-best 11-1 record but plays a style that would have been inconceivable even a few years ago.

Gone are the days of Mahomes chucking the ball downfield and torching opponents for 40 or 50 points. Instead, the current version of the Chiefs has played in almost exclusively close games and counted on Mahomes to deliver key first downs and timely scoring drives.

Best Record in Games Decided By Eight Points or Fewer (2024)

• 9-0 – Kansas City Chiefs    
• 7-1 – Minnesota Vikings
• 6-1 – Detroit Lions
• 6-1 – Philadelphia Eagles
• 4-1 – Seattle Seahawks

This formula has worked so well that many fans and pundits have insisted that the Chiefs could not possibly continue winning close games, yet they remain undefeated in single-score contests after Matthew Wright’s 32-yard field goal gave them a 19-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13.

Basic analytics also tend to view narrow victories more as a product of luck than quality, with many prediction models using point differential as a key component.

But Kansas City is already one of 17 teams in the Super Bowl era to win at least nine one-score games, and the record of 11 close victories is well within reach with five games left in the regular season.

While the Chiefs have failed to produce eye-popping offensive numbers or run away with blowout victories, Mahomes & Co. have still been able to move the chains and string together drives.

Sunday night, however, they will face a tough test in their rematch with the Chargers’ No. 1 scoring defense.

Kansas City won the first round of this divisional rivalry 17-10 in Week 4, and the Chiefs are again favored this weekend at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Most sports bet listings have the two-time defending champions as 4.0-point favorites over the Chargers in Week 14. Our prediction model agrees, giving Kansas City a 64.1% chance (as of Friday) of improving to 12-1.

The Harbaugh Effect

Harbaugh has brought his signature toughness to his first year coaching the Chargers, focusing on the running game and a stout defense en route to an 8-4 start.

Under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, Los Angeles has morphed from the 24th-ranked scoring defense in the league last season to the stingiest unit in the NFL this year, an improvement of nearly eight points per game.

Harbaugh’s preferred style of play has also brought about other key improvements, with the Chargers committing a league-low six turnovers in 12 games. Los Angeles has benefitted from an improved rushing attack, boasting an additional 16.3 rushing yards per game over last year.

Los Angeles took a hit two weeks ago when leading rusher J.K. Dobbins landed on injured reserve with a knee sprain. The Chargers responded last week with just 56 yards on 17 in a 17-13 win over Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons, with Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal getting the bulk of the carries.

The task will be even greater this week against Kansas City’s third-ranked rushing defense, allowing 87.8 yards per game.

That could put extra pressure on Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey (team-high nine catches for 117 yards against the Falcons) and a Chargers passing game that ranks 25th with a 31.7% third-down success rate.

This rematch, however, will likely be decided while Mahomes is under center, pivoting on the Chargers’ ability to make stops on third down.

Key Indicator: Third Down

Though the offense may be producing disappointing numbers for casual observers and fantasy-focused fans, Kansas City has quietly hit a groove.

Over their last eight games, the Chiefs have averaged 23 first downs per game and have averaged over 33 minutes of possession over that stretch.

Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 200 adjusted attempts (no throwaways or spikes) this season, Mahomes ranks 30th at 6.27 air yards per attempt. However, he continues to do enough to move the chains, as the Chiefs lead the NFL in third down success rate on designed passing plays at 49.3%.

Kansas City leads the NFL in overall third-down efficiency, converting 51.8% of the time, and Isiah Pacheco should keep them in manageable situations in his second game back from injured reserve.

Even Mahomes’ early season turnover problems have slowly faded away. After throwing nine interceptions in the first seven games of the season, he has just two over the last five games.

With improved ball security and a ball-control offense, the Chiefs are playing Harbaugh’s style better than the Chargers at the moment.

Number of 10-Play Drives (2024)

• 34 – Kansas City Chiefs         
• 31 – Philadelphia Eagles
• 29 – New England Patriots
• 28 – Chicago Bears
• 28 – New York Giants
• 28 – Washington Commanders

The Chargers will need to show just how much they’ve improved to even the season series with their division rivals.

Los Angeles opponents are scoring on just 27.5% of their drives this season, the lowest mark in the league, and the Chargers are allowing third-down conversions just 33.3% of the time, tied for the second-stingiest rate in the NFL.

Kansas City’s passing game rarely features the deep ball as 59.0% of its passing yards come after the catch, the third most in the league. Kansas City is averaging 6.0 yards after catch per reception.

The Chargers, however, are allowing the second-fewest yards after the catch at 4.6 per reception.

The Los Angeles secondary has been plagued by injuries this season, but the unit had four interceptions in last week’s win over Atlanta. Rookie cornerbacks Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart – along with safeties Elijah Molden and Marcus Maye – have played much bigger roles than anticipated before the season.

With both the Chargers and Chiefs looking to play a ball-control style, Los Angeles may need to rely on unsung heroes again as Los Angeles aims to end a six-game losing streak against Kansas City.

A wayward missed tackle or blown coverage, however, could allow the Chiefs to improve to 12-1 and keep control of the AFC’s No. 1 seed.