Set to turn 33 in July, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s opportunities to win an MVP are starting to dwindle.

Prescott has flirted with the award before, with the Cowboys signal-caller finishing second in the voting back in 2023.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Prescott MVP talk has already begun and it comes from Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton, who views the veteran as one of five players most likely to win their first MVP.

“With a balanced roster, Dallas could get back into contention for the NFC East title and win double-digit games, which would give Prescott a shot to win MVP if he continues to rack up strong passing numbers,” Moton wrote.

Dak Prescott could win MVP in 2026

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

It’s certainly not crazy to think Prescott can get the highest player honor in the NFL this coming season.

Prescott should throw for plenty of yards thanks to an elite pass-catching trio that includes wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and tight end Jake Ferguson.

But it isn’t just about the offense for Prescott’s MVP candidacy. As we saw last season, the Cowboys will need a better effort from the defense in order to make the playoffs, which is crucial for Prescott’s candidacy.

On that front, the Cowboys should be better. They added to their positions of need, including edge rusher, safety, cornerback and linebacker, and have a promising new defensive coordinator in Christian Parker, who replaces the inept Matt Eberflus.

If the offense is as good as we think it is and the defense puts out even an average performance, Dallas’ two-year playoff drought should end in 2026.

What kind of production does Dak need?

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

First things first, the Cowboys have to get back to the playoffs or else it won’t matter what Prescott does statistically.

In terms of what he’d need to produce, Prescott will have to throw for north of 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns while posting single-digit interceptions and a completion rate above 65%. In his MVP runner-up campaign in 2023, Dak checked all of those boxes.

Of course, Prescott isn’t going to be the only quarterback to be in that neighborhood of production, so he might have to do even more to stand out.

Prescott can do that by performing in the clutch, something he has had a knack for during his career in the regular season.

As recently as 2024, only one quarterback in the league had a higher percentage of game-winning drives in which he had to put his team up multiple times than Prescott: two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes.

The ingredients are all there for Prescott to win an MVP in 2026, so don’t be surprised if he’s accepting the honor come February.