It is never too early to analyze and discuss what could happen in the next NFL season. Despite the result of Super Bowl LX etched in stone for less than two weeks, the 2026-27 NFL win totals were released on Thursday, and it is already the talk of the town in the sports world.

Let’s take a look at the Kansas City Chiefs’ win total for next season and compare it to the rest of the league. Quick disclaimer: the over/under for all win totals and spreads are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

How Much are the Chiefs Expected to Win in 2026?

Kansas City is one of 11 teams with its win total set at 10.5. In fact, there are zero teams with an over/under of 11 or more, which means that the betting market has the Chiefs tied for the best win total line.

The offseason is just underway, and no major acquisitions have occurred yet, so these totals will fluctuate as free agency and the 2026 NFL Draft unfold, painting a clearer picture of how each team is assembled heading into next season. Nonetheless, the Chiefs are assessed as one of the top teams in the league, despite the evident shortcomings on the roster.

Currently, the odds are over 10.5 at -105 and under 10.5 at -115. Essentially, even money makes sense based on a major player being up in the air for the start of next season.

Patrick Mahomes’ Unknown Status

The timing of the injury for the 30-year-old quarterback would usually indicate that he will not be available until later in the season, but Mahomes has made it abundantly clear that he expects to be ready for Week 1.

With Mahomes’ ambiguous recovery timeline, the sportsbook decided to take the safe route and assign a number to the Chiefs that would not allow either side of the betting world to steal great value on the over or under.

Will This Number Move?

As mentioned, these projections will move throughout the offseason due to player movement, the draft, and inevitable injuries that occur every year.

If I had to guess, I would say the Chiefs’ win total projection will be stagnant. Even if Kansas City’s offseason is a home run, it will not matter if Mahomes misses extended time. If and when the three-time Super Bowl MVP is confirmed to be ready for the first game of next season, then that number could rise to 11.5, but we will not know that until late in the offseason.

This number could theoretically marginally slide based on the Chiefs’ activity in free agency and success in the draft, but this is most likely a stay-away bet until Mahomes’ status is confirmed.