The Green Bay Packers are getting real close to the postseason once again. After beating the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, the chances of the Packers making the playoffs for the second consecutive season jumped from 83% to 96%, according to The New York Times projection machine.
Before beating the Chicago Bears last week, the Packers had a 69% chance, so these last two wins were absolutely huge for Green Bay.
This 49ers game in particular counted a lot because the 49ers are perceived as a great team. So the simulation gave the Packers a lower chance of winning this game. And because they did win, the chances of making the playoffs are positively impacted at a higher degree.
Path
The Packers are 8-3, and it’s realistic to make the playoffs with 10 wins — since the NFL adopted the 14-team playoff format, only the 2020 Miami Dolphins missed the postseason with 10+ wins. For that to happen, the Packers just need to win two out of their last six games. Three wins virtually secure them a playoff spot. So a .500 record from now on is enough.
If the Packers beat the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night, their playoff chances go to 99%. If they lose, they go down to 91%.
For the opposite reason that the Packers’ win over the 49ers was that impactful, the most important game for the rest of the season is the one against the New Orleans Saints in Week 16. That’s because this is the game in which the Packers have the highest chance of winning, so a loss would be costly in the projections.
How it will happen
The NFC North is just wild at this point. The Detroit Lions are obviously the favorites to win it with a 10-1 record. The Minnesota Vikings have not played at such a high level, especially lately, but they are still getting away with some wins and a 9-2 record. The Packers are 8-3, but only third in the division. The Chicago Bears are 4-7, and virtually eliminated from playoff contention.
Because of that, the Packers don’t have a high chance of winning the NFC North — it’s just 4% (2% of chances to get a bye week in the playoffs). However, the Packers have a comfortable 92% chance of making it as a wild card team. It won’t be an easy path in the playoffs with road games, but the trajectory to get there is becoming much clearer.
