Since the stunning Micah Parsons’ deal last summer, the Dallas Cowboys have been desperately trying to address a fanbase rife with growing impatience. The ensuing 7-9-1 campaign didn’t help relations, but Brian Schottenheimer’s encouraging offensive prowess with some premium draft capital has generated some positive buzz around this crucial offseason.
Whether fair or not, much of the public sentiment around the next few months will hinge on the front office’s ability to retain superstar wideout George Pickens. The recent history of Jerry Jones’ reluctance to pay top-dollar to franchise cornerstones is enough to cause concern, but this Pickens situation is more complex. The club offloaded two picks just to acquire the 24-year-old, who was a second-team All-Pro in his first season with Dallas.
But is it wise to back up the Brink’s truck for another wideout? Could not extending Pickens send a message to the rest of the league that the Cowboys are unwilling to fairly compensate their players? It’s so early in the process that a resolution seems impossible to predict, but one prominent analyst gave it his best shot.
In a recent piece for ESPN, NFL analyst Benjamin Solak forecasted how he envisions this Pickens’ saga to unfold.
“The Cowboys—after a classic prolonged and public negotiation—will make Pickens the fourth-highest-paid receiver in the NFL, just under teammate CeeDee Lamb ($34 million per year) but ahead of Pittsburgh’s DK Metcalf ($33 million),” Solak wrote. “And with Pickens back, quarterback Dak Prescott goes on to win MVP in 2026.”
Will George Pickens and Dak Prescott take over the NFL in 2026?
Let’s get this out of the way—at the current time of writing, I’d give Pickens a 40% chance to return to Dallas. Elite pass catchers command a premium on the open market, but he might not even get that far. Rather than give their talented receiver a long-term contract, the Cowboys could opt to place Pickens under the franchise tag. That avenue tends to be problematic, often leading to player resentment and holdouts throughout training camp.
Given Pickens’ off-the-field drama that has plagued the bulk of his career, his being content with that move is likely slim to none. But what other choice does the team have?
Does anyone, besides Solak, genuinely think Jerry will re-sign Pickens before he hits free agency on March 11th? If there isn’t an agreement by that date, the odds of him leaving would increase dramatically.
The issue with getting into the Pickens’ business in the first place was about his volatile behavior, paired with this looming negotiation. Most of the potential scenarios in play end with the Cowboys having a massive headache at a time when they’re desperate to get back into contention.
As for Dak’s potential MVP candidacy, let’s pump the brakes. Until there are sizeable upgrades to this pitiful defense, it doesn’t matter what kind of monster stats he produces. You can squint and see a world in which Solak’s prediction comes to pass, but a lot has to go right this offseason.
