In the 2010s, the New England Patriots making the AFC Championship Game was literally an annual occurrence. In the last few years, however, the team has been absence from the conference title round: since 2019, the team has either not advanced that far in the playoffs or failed to qualify for the tournament entirely.
This year, however, the Patriots have returned. After beating the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans in the wild card and divisional playoffs, respectively, they are now on to the AFC Championship. Standing in their way, however, is a formidable opponent: the top-seeded Denver Broncos, who beat the Buffalo Bills in overtime last week to secure the right to compete for a Super Bowl berth in front of their home fans.
Home field advantage, especially at Denver’s Mile High Stadium, could very well factor into the matchup. Looking merely at the two teams, however, we can see that the Patriots coming out on top is a realistic possibility.
Patriots pass offense vs. Broncos pass defense: Drake Maye has been under significant pressure this postseason, and the results have at times not been pretty: he has been sacked 10 times, and fumbled on six total occasions. This week, the task will not be easier for the the Pro Bowler and his supporting cast. Denver’s defense is averaging almost four sacks per game this season, ranking first in the NFL in quarterback takedowns. If the New England offense line struggles to create clean pockets, their offense could therefore be in for yet another bumpy ride. That said, one big themes in both of the team’s previous two playoff games has been the unit’s resilience: Maye and company managed to make enough, and timely, pass plays against both the Chargers and Texans to secure victories. Ultimately, both sides should be able to make plays in this strength-versus-strength matchup, but we still cannot bet against Maye. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Broncos pass offense: The Patriots defense has played some inspired football this postseason, and we would have given it an edge had Broncos starter Bo Nix not suffered a season-ending ankle injury in overtime against Buffalo. With backup Jarrett Stidham now set to make his fifth career start and see his first extended action since the 2023 season, the scales shift even more dramatically toward the visitors. That does not mean he and the Broncos won’t be able to land their punches, though. Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin are a productive starting duo at wide receiver, with the team’s depth and tight end options also actively involved throughout the year. Add the fact that the Broncos ranked first in the NFL in sack percentage during the regular season (3.6%) and you can see why this matchup could be a lot closer than it looks like on paper. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots rushing offense vs. Broncos run defense: Rhamondre Stevenson is playing the best football of his career, and has had some good moments in both of the Patriots’ playoff games so far. That said, New England’s run game overall has still been hit or miss throughout the tournament: between its games against the Chargers and Texans, it posted only -0.270 expected points per run and a success rate of 34%. Now going up against a talented Broncos front, the outlook is not necessarily rosy either. Of course, Denver had its fair share of struggles against the Bills last week, giving up 183 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry. Quarterback scrambles in particular proved to be a particular problem for Denver’s front six, and something Drake Maye is more than capable of exploiting as well. Still, we are giving Denver a slight advantage. | Edge: Broncos
Patriots run defense vs. Broncos rushing offense: Ever since Milton Williams returned to the lineup following his stint on injured reserve, the Patriots run defense has returned to form as well. Neither L.A. nor Houston were able to establish a consistent presence on the ground, in large part due to Williams and teammate Christian Barmore regularly controlling the line of scrimmage and opening up lanes for a fast-processing group of linebackers to come up from behind them. The Broncos pose a different challenge, though, and could get two core contributors back this week in the form of lead back J.K. Dobbins and center Luke Wattenberg. Overall, though, we still like New England’s defense to make things difficult for Denver — especially within the context of the passing game projecting to be less of a threat with Jarrett Stidham under center. | Edge: Patriots
Looking at the numbers, this is as even a matchup as you can find. Whereas the Broncos have a slight edge in the kicking department, posting a superior place kick rate and yards per punt, the Patriots’ returners have been a bit more effective. As far as coverage is concerned, New England is better on kickoffs, Denver better on punts. The differences in all of those categories are marginal, however. So, why are we giving the home team a slight edge in this one? The aforementioned home field advantage. The Broncos’ kickers and returners are both more experienced playing at an elevation of 5,280 feet and are used to the impact it can have on special teams play. For New England, meanwhile, punts and kicks traveling farther will be an adjustment. | Edge: Broncos
For as tight as the last three categories we discussed are, this one might be the closest of them all. Both the Patriots’ and the Broncos’ coaching staffs have done a good job this season, or else their teams wouldn’t be one win away from the Super Bowl. So, we are giving the edge to Sean Payton and his Denver staff by a hair: they have tremendous experience in all three phases — experience New England is lacking on defense and special teams. That being said, the fact that Payton and company will have to device a plan for a backup quarterback could very well change this particular matchup in the Patriots’ favor. If the Broncos cannot overcome this obstacle from a game-plan and game-management perspective, the visitors’ chances will increase significantly. | Edge: Broncos
The Patriots entered the week as 5.5-point road favorites over the Broncos, a line reflecting Denver’s unclear quarterback situation (and one that has since shifted slightly to 4.5). As our breakdown above shows, however, the AFC Championship Game projects to be a tight one in almost every category.
The biggest mismatch is the one that could end up making the difference in the end: New England’s pass defense against Jarrett Stidham and a Broncos passing offense that is a major question mark. If acting coordinator Zak Kuhr’s unit plays to its capabilities, it should be able to make life hard on Stidham, though, and therefore ultimately set the Patriots on the way to their first Super Bowl appearance in seven years.
