The Green Bay Packers made a key move over the weekend when they reached an agreement to extend head coach Matt LaFleur. While specific terms of the agreement have not been released, the move was expected to happen as they did not want LaFleur to become a lame duck entering the final year of his contract in 2026. But although they clearly valued stability, the deal is already evolving as the coaching carousel continues to spin.

The latest head coach to go flying was Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills. Less than 48 hours after Buffalo lost to the Denver Broncos in an AFC Divisional Round matchup, the Bills announced that they fired McDermott after nine seasons with the team putting another high-profile head coaching candidate on the market.

At this point, no move should be surprising as 10 head coaches either stepped down from their position or got fired since the regular season ended. But it also creates a reason for the Packers to regret their decision to keep LaFleur in town.

Matt LaFleur’s Contract Extension Is a Pricey Bet for Packers After Sean McDermott’s Firing

McDermott’s availability is another ripple effect in this year’s coaching cycle. Hired by the Bills in 2017, McDermott had just one losing season in his nine years in Buffalo – a 6-10 campaign in 2018 – but won double-digit games in each of his final seven seasons, advancing to the AFC Championship Game in 2020 and 2024.

But despite posting a 98-50 record with the teams, his 8-8 playoff record was probably the reason the Bills chose to move on. Many had speculated on McDermott’s job status if he wasn’t able to take the Bills to the Super Bowl in a field that was without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow and he could have been on the Packers’ radar if they had chosen to move on from LaFleur.

By comparison, LaFleur has gone 76-40-1 during his seven seasons in Green Bay and his .654 winning percentage is about even with McDermot’s .662 mark in Buffalo. But LaFleur’s 3-6 playoff record is much worse than McDermott’s and outside of his two trips to the NFC Championship Game in 2019 and 2020, LaFleur has lost four of his last five playoff games.

Even Super Bowl-winning head coaches like John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have been fired for less during this coaching cycle. But it’s not the only reason the Packers could regret that decision.

Money is a concern for the Packers as they’ve shown a tendency to be on the cheap side when it comes to the coaching staff. LaFleur has been on the wrong end of this tendency before, as the Packers declined to hire Darren Rizzi as a special teams coordinator at the beginning of his tenure when contract negotiations broke down. That led them to hire Shawn Mennenga and Mo Drayton before finally paying up for Bisaccia following the 2021 season, even though Bisaccia’s tenure has produced middling results.

Packers know that hasn’t been the best path to go down, but it’s also possible that Green Bay dragged its heels during contract negotiations with LaFleur. Although most of the talks were centered around the length of the deal, LaFleur was outside of the top 10 in head coaching salaries prior to his extension rumored to be around $9 million per year per Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

If the Packers haggled over money during LaFleur’s negotiations, it could create an interesting scenario if nothing improves. Should Green Bay continue the status quo, LaFleur’s job status could be on the table but chairman Ed Policy may think long and hard depending how much money is left on LaFleur’s contract.

With coaching salaries fully guaranteed, it would be a tough pill to swallow if LaFleur is making the $13 million figure that Ben Johnson is making with the Chicago Bears. If that’s two years down the line, Green Bay could be on the hook for $39 million plus the money it would take to bring in another head coach.

After seeing McDermott get shown the door after a successful tenure in Buffalo, the Packers may not only be kicking themselves at an opportunity for an upgrade. But could be kicking themselves later if they have to fire LaFleur before his contract expires. That makes extending LaFleur a pricy bet and puts pressure on the head coach to make sure it pays off.