The New England Patriots may have a successful postseason history against the Houston Texans, but it will not matter come Sunday. These are not your dad’s (or your younger self’s) Patriots, and these are certainly not the same Texans that were blown out in each of their previous playoff trips to Gillette Stadium.

With what is arguably the best defense in football leading the way, Houston is a legitimate contender in the AFC and capable of giving Mike Vrabel’s team all it can handle. The Patriots, on the other hand, have shown their ability to play successful and complementary football all year, albeit mostly against competition not on the Texans’ level.

And yet, there is reason for optimism heading into Sunday — that is, if the Patriots can play a cleaner game than they did at times last week. With that said, here are our X-factors for the divisional playoffs, using numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats.

Offensive X-factors

Let Drake Maye cook: The Texans defense is as good a unit as any in the NFL, but that does not mean it is without weakness. In fact, some of those correlate precisely with what Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is doing well: stressing defenses deep and making plays with his legs.

Houston enters Sunday ranked 18th in the NFL in expected points added on throws of at least 20 air yards, compared to a first-place ranking on shorter passes than that. The team also ranks 14th in explosive pass play rate, which is still above average but not as high a ranking as others. Maye, on the other hand, has been the best deep-ball thrower in football this year and will get his chances to stress the unit especially when it goes to the single-high man looks it likes to incorporate on late downs.

Both Kayshon Boutte and Kyle Williams could be actively involved on Sunday. Yes, cornerbacks Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter are a potent duo on the outside, but that should not prevent the Patriots from testing them or the soft spots in the Texans’ coverage.

As far as scrambling is concerned, Houston is ranked second-to-last in the league in both EPA (+1.02) and yards per carry (9.6) in such situations. Maye, meanwhile, has been willing and able to make plays with his feet. Just last week against a solid Chargers defense, he scrambled five times for 60 yards and 0.7 expected points added per such play.

Turn the Texans’ aggressiveness against them: The Texans’ vulnerability against quarterback scrambles is a byproduct of their defensive play style. They are aggressive at everything they do, which can lead to some uneven gap integrity and openings to exploit. And while they have at times countered by employing spies against mobile QBs like Drake Maye, Houston treating the game as a true 11-on-11 matchup takes an extra defender away form patrolling underneath.

The aggressiveness does not only show up in the scramble numbers, but on select play designs as well. One of those that will likely be utilized by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is screen passes. Houston has struggled defending screens, ranking as the third-worst defense in the league in EPA per play. It makes sense: they try to dictate how a down goes, but screen passes quickly force them into reactiveness.

Another area where this shows up is missed tackles. On the year, Houston has whiffed on 13.5% of its tackle attempts for an average of almost 8 missed tackles per game.

Win on first down: The Texans’ defensive strategy starts with their ability to dictate a series from the first snap on. That is only natural given that every subsequent call is influenced by the one that preceded it. In the end, Houston wants to find itself in favorable distances on third down, so that it can allow not just its pass rushers to pin their ears back and disrupt the opponent but also to become more aggressive with blitz and coverage calls.

The Patriots, naturally, want to avoid finding themselves in such a position as much as possible. They are not bad on third down by any means, ranking sixth in the NFL in the regular season with a 42.9% conversion rate. However, living in third down and especially third-and-long is not a sustainable way to play football versus this Texans defense: it allows the group to play to its strengths and aggressive tendencies, and by extension increases the pressure on New England and the likelihood of the team shooting itself in the foot one way or another.

Defensive X-factors

Do not ‘switch the macaroni’: Earlier this week, acting Patriots defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr spoke about finding the right balance in regards to his unit’s aggressiveness. One of the factors impacting said balance is the opponent; not every offense is as susceptible to blitzes and heavy pressure as the Chargers’ was last week.

The Texans, however, might just be. While superior up front relative to the banged up unit L.A. had to rely on for much of the season, including the wild card round, neither they nor quarterback C.J. Stroud have lit the world on fire versus the blitz. In total, Stroud has gone 109-for-161 (67.7%) for 1,257 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions when facing extra rushers; he also has taken 13 sacks on the year.

With top wideout Nico Collins out and right tackle Trent Brown nursing an ankle injury, Kuhr might try to challenge Stroud and his supporting cast early to get a feel for what to expect. And given that his unit is clearly comfortable being used in such a fashion, it would not be a surprise if he kept the foot on the gas.

Be opportunistic: Houston has done a very good job in the turnover department this season. Besides the defense ranking third with 29 takeaways, the offense only gave the ball away on 12 occasions during the regular season. The resulting +17 turnover margin — second best in football — took a slight hit last week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, with Houston turning the ball over three times versus two takeaways.

Those takeaways all came courtesy of the team’s QB: C.J. Stroud lost two fumbles and threw an interception. In total, he was credited with five fumbles on the day, with three of those the result of an insufficient exchange with center (and ex-Patriot) Jake Andrews.

The Patriots cannot directly force the issue on Sunday, but muddying the waters up front might help put some additional pressure on Andrews and Stroud before and during the snap; the more they will have to process, the easier their technique might break down. Defenders, meanwhile, need to be aware of the potential vulnerability and able to jump on the ball quickly if it does come out.

For a Texans team whose 10-game win streak is in large part powered by limiting mistakes and winning the field position battle, any such miscues could prove costly.

Adjust to the conditions: With snow in the forecast, defenses in particular will be impacted. Pass rushers won’t be able to get off as quickly, pursuit angles become even more important, and strong footwork will be rewarded. The team to adjust best will be the team to win, and for the Patriots the alternative could be damaging particularly in the tackling department.

The Texans, after all, are a dangerous team when allowed extra opportunities. Just last week, led by wide receiver Christian Kirk, the team’s skill players averaged 4.2 yards after the catch as well as 2.5 yards after contact. After a rough start this year, New England has been generally solid completing tackles, but that ability will be put to the test not just by the opponent but also by the conditions on Sunday.