Experts share their picks for the Patriots Divisional Round matchup against the Houston Texans.

Pick: Patriots 20, Texans 17

Drake Maye avoiding the critical mistake against a team that finished the regular season plus-17 in turnover differential is naturally the key.

Matt Bowen, ESPN: Patriots

Mike Clay, ESPN: Patriots

Dan Graziano, ESPN: Texans

Kalyn Kahler, ESPN: Patriots

Pamela Maldonado, ESPN: Patriots

Eric Moody, ESPN: Patriots

Jason Reid, ESPN: Texans

Lindsey Thiry, ESPN: Texans

Ali Bhanpuri, NFL.com: Patriots 23, Texans 21

Brooke Cersosimo, NFL.com: Texans 22, Patriots 16

Dan Parr, NFL.com: Patriots 19, Texans 17

Gennaro Filice, NFL.com: Texans 19, Patriots 16

Tom Blair, NFL.com: Patriots 22, Texans 17

Why Brooke picked the Texans: I’m a sucker for elite defenses, so naturally, I’m ALL IN on this Houston unit — even against an MVP candidate on his home turf. The star-studded group had the No. 2 scoring (17.4 PPG allowed) and No. 1 overall (277.2 YPG allowed) defense in the regular season, while ranking third in takeaways (29). The Texans’ D completely overwhelmed the Steelers last week, racking up four sacks and two defensive touchdowns while yielding just 175 yards. Now, Drake Maye and the Patriots aren’t the Steelers. But this will be the toughest task Maye has faced in his career, as he has never played a team with a top-five scoring and total defense entering the week. The stakes have never been higher for the second-year pro, whose 2025 Pats are 2-2 against teams with a winning record, including last week’s victory over Los Angeles. Against the Chargers’ top-10 defense, Maye was good but not great. He has found success by leaning on Stefon Diggs — Maye has an impressive 81.3 completion percentage when targeting the veteran this season (including playoffs) — while also connecting with his other pass catchers and making timely plays with his legs when needed. I’m not so convinced he fares well, though, against Houston’s pass rush and ballhawking secondary. After all, Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre and Calen Bullock each logged four interceptions during the regular season, with Bullock adding a pick-six on Wild Card Weekend. Maye could prove me wrong, but even after all that team has accomplished this season, I don’t feel I can fully trust it.

On the flip side, can C.J. Stroud rebound from a disastrous performance in Pittsburgh? Does he need to with that defense? I mean, he needs to do something. There’s a good chance he’ll be without Pro Bowl WR Nico Collins (concussion), which isn’t ideal. The pressure is on OC Nick Caley to dial up a game plan — and Stroud to execute one — that moves the ball against Mike Vrabel’s top-10 defense, which also deserves its flowers but could be without shutdown corner Christian Gonzalez (concussion). No CG would be a huge hit to that unit. He didn’t allow a single reception on five targets and 26 coverage snaps last week, per Next Gen Stats. On the plus side, Gonzalez was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice.

Ultimately, I’m taking Houston because I feel THAT good about the defense. And dating back to 2024 (including playoffs), the Texans have won 16 straight games when they score at least 20 points — a point total they’ve reached in every game since Week 12. They are 12-0 in such games this season — the only team with zero losses in that circumstance. Houston will do enough on both sides of the ball to reach the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history.

Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 17

This is all about the defenses. The Texans dominated the Steelers on Monday night, while the Patriots abused Herbert. The big edge goes to the Patriots offense. C.J. Stroud struggled against the Steelers, which is why Drake Maye has the advantage. Look for Maye to outplay Stroud as the Patriots win it in what should be a defensive-oriented game.

Jared Dubin, CBS Sports: Patriots

Ryan Wilson, CBS Sports: Patriots

John Breech, CBS Sports: Texans

Tyler Sullivan, CBS Sports: Patriots

Dave Richard, CBS Sports: Patriots

Jamey Eisenburg, CBS Sports: Patriots

Mike Florio: Texans 16, Patriots 13

Chris Simms: Texans 20, Patriots 17

Paul Perillo, Patriots.com:

Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 20

Another hard-fought defensive battle sends Pats to AFC title game.

Mike Dussault, Patriots.com:

Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 17

Houston’s defense will be the toughest test of Drake Maye’s career, but Josh McDaniels has seen it all before and will come into the game with a winning plan that Maye will be able to execute. The Pats might need some points and field position in the margins to seal this one; breaking 20 points should do the trick.

Evan Lazar, Patriots.com:

Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 20

I have a lot of respect for this Texans defense, but I also have a lot of confidence in Mike Vrabel, Drake Maye, and Josh McDaniels. My gut says the Pats get just enough offense to come away with the win.