Bengals’ Round 1 spot in 2026 NFL Draft order comes down to a few key outcomes out of their control

The upcoming NFL playoffs will not impact the Cincinnati Bengals’ placement in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. The Bengals have been eliminated from postseason contention since Week 15, and like 17 other clubs, Week 18 will reveal where in the initial draft order they will land.

Cincinnati’s first-round pick may be just inside the first 10 selections, or just outside the top-10. It will come down to its regular season finale against the Cleveland Browns, and three other Week 18 games outside of the Bengals’ control.

Where the Bengals stand in the 2026 NFL Draft order

Cincinnati currently owns the 10th pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Bengals are one of three teams with a 6-10 record heading into the last week of the season along with the New Orleans Saints, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Cincinnati has the better strength of schedule (.517), which bumps them further from the No. 1 pick compared to New Orleans (No. 8) and Kansas City (No. 9).

Fittingly, the Bengals can move up and down the same number of spots depending on how Week 18 ends up. The Saints face the Atlanta Falcons, and the Chiefs will take on the Las Vegas Raiders. Atlanta’s pick is owned by the Los Angeles Rams, which is in the No. 12 spot entering the last week of the season. The Miami Dolphins would be picking No. 11 if the season was over, and they play the New England Patriots on Sunday.

There are many permutations on the table with those three games and Cincinnati’s own contest against the Browns, but the Bengals are locked in to a range between the No. 8 pick and the No. 12 pick. Here’s what needs to happen for them to reach either end of this range.

Bengals will have the No. 8 pick if…

Cleveland beats Cincinnati, New Orleans beats Atlanta, and Kansas City beats Las Vegas.

Bengals will have the No. 12 pick if…

Cincinnati beats Cleveland, New Orleans beats Atlanta, and New England beats Miami.

The Athletic gives the Bengals a 43% chance at owning the No. 11 pick. They have a 25% chance at picking No. 12, a 16% chance staying at No. 10, a 12% chance bumping up to No. 9, and only a 5% chance at ending up with the No 8 pick.

Beating the Browns will all but ensure the Bengals will pick outside the top-10, but not too far outside. Cincinnati is a 7.5-point favorite to beat Cleveland at home in Sunday’s regular season finale.

No matter what happens this Sunday, the Bengals will have their highest first-round pick since 2021 when they selected Ja’Marr Chase No. 5 overall.

 

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