The New England Patriots have already clinched a playoff spot, sit atop the AFC East as clear favorites to win the division, and have won 12 games — four more than in their last two seasons combined. At first glance, things could not be going better for the six-time Super Bowl-winning franchise in its quest to regain the dominance it held for 2001 to 2019.
But look a little deeper and there are danger signs for the Patriots as they head toward the postseason for the first time since the 2021 season — and only the second since future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady departed the team following the 2019 campaign. Their own injury report issued on Friday ahead of Sunday’s road game against the New York Jets was bad enough — seven key players listed as out and three more deemed questionable.
And that doesn’t count rookie left tackle Will Campbell, who is not eligible to come off the injured reserve list until the final week of the regular season.
Bad News From West Coast Impacts Patriots’ Chances
More bad news came in on Friday, however, this time from the West Coast and it directly affects the Patriots’ chances to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC — a possibility for which they now have slightly better than a one-in-three chance if they win their final two games, according to a computer model created by The Athletic.
The Athletic model may not have taken into account the injury report issued Friday by the Los Angeles Chargers — news that directly impacts the Patriots’ quest to grab that top seed. Here’s why, and why the top seed is critically important for head coach Mike Vrabel and his young New England squad.
Why Chargers-Texans Is Key For NE
On Saturday at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time, the 11-4 Los Angeles Chargers host the 10-5 Houston Texans at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers have already clinched at least a wild-card playoff berth. The Texans hold the No. 7 seed in the AFC and are fighting to keep it or better yet, move up in the seedings.
It is the Chargers who are the team the Patriots will be watching, however. If they win on Saturday, their Week 18 game against the Denver Broncos becomes all-important for New England. Why?
The Patriots’ scenario for clinching the No. 1 seed requires that they win out, beating both the Jets on Sunday and the Miami Dolphins the following week. But that’s not enough. The Chargers must also defeat the Broncos in that final game of the season. If all three of those results happen, the Patriots win the AFC.
The No. 1 seed is important for two reasons. First, it guarantees that the Patriots play all of their playoff games at home. But more importantly, it would exempt the Patriots from playing in the wild-card round, giving them an extra week off between Week 18 and their first playoff game. That’s an extra week for their ballooning list of injured players to get their health back.
Bad News From Los Angeles
The news out of Chargers practice, however, was not great on Friday. Los Angeles listed four key players as out for the Texans game, and three more as questionable — a situation that SI.com Chargers correspondent Chris Roling called “a disaster.”
“The Chargers and (quarterback Justin) Herbert aren’t strangers to making something from nothing because of the endless barrage of injuries to the offensive line,” Roling wrote. “But it’s a different beast against a Texans front seven that has made even the NFL’s best look rushed and ineffective, especially lately.”
Should the Chargers defeat the Texans, their Week 18 showdown with the Broncos becomes a battle for the AFC West division title — giving Los Angeles every motivation to go all-out to win it. If they lose on Saturday, next week’s game becomes essentially meaningless.
But not for the Broncos, who would need only to win to secure the No. 1 seed. The best news for the Patriots this week, outside of winning their own game against the Jets, would be a Chargers win over the Texans.
