The Detroit Lions playoff chances are hanging by a thread, down to one scenario entering their Christmas NFL game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Two things must happen: The Lions must win Thursday evening in Minneapolis to thwart elimination for a few days, and then hope the Green Bay Packers lose on Saturday night.

If both results happen, the Lions will at least have hope entering their Week 18 regular-season finale at the Chicago Bears, who would have already clinched the NFC North due to Green Bay’s loss. (Chicago could still have seeding to play for.)

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Lions (8-7) have lost two in a row, their first losing streak in more than three years. That must end Thursday against an undrafted rookie quarterback, Max Brosmer, and the 7-8 Vikings, winners of three in a row.

Let’s take an updated look with everything you need to know about the Lions’ playoff scenarios and odds, the NFC playoff picture and more entering Thursday’s action to start Week 17:

Lions playoff scenarios

Here’s how the Lions can make the playoffs, with only one scenario to get in:

• Lions win their final two games to finish 10-7.
• The Packers lose their final two games to finish 9-7-1. A tie gets the Packers into the playoffs, since they would have two ties, which the NFL splits as a win and a loss for tiebreak purposes. (In that rare case, the Packers own the tiebreaker over the Lions due to sweeping the head-to-head season series.) Green Bay hosts Baltimore in Week 17 and visits Minnesota in Week 18.

Lions playoff odds

Entering Week 17:

• The Lions have a 6% chance of making the playoffs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
• The Lions a 4% chance, according to The Athletic’s projection model.
• The Lions have a 7% chance, according to ESPN Analytics.

The Lions can only make the playoffs as the 7-seed, which will play the 2-seed in the wild-card round. Currently the 2-seed is the Bears, who have clinched a playoff berth and are a win OR a Packers loss away from winning the NFC North.

NFC playoff standings

Here is the NFC playoff picture entering Week 17:

• 1. Seahawks, 12-3, clinched playoff berth.
• 2. Bears: 11-4, clinched playoff berth.
• 3. Eagles: 10-5, clinched NFC East.
• 4. Panthers: 8-7, NFC South leader.
• 5. 49ers, 11-4, clinched playoff berth.
• 6. Rams: 11-4, clinched playoff berth.
• 7. Packers: 9-5-1.
• *Lions: 8-7.
• *Buccaneers: 7-8.

*Currently out of playoffs

Lions next game

• Week 17, Thursday, Dec. 25: at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30 p.m., Netflix.
• Week 18, Saturday/Sunday, Jan. 3-4: at Chicago Bears, TBD.

The Lions are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss OR tie.

Packers next game

• Week 17, Saturday, Dec. 27: vs Baltimore Ravens, 8 p.m., Peacock.
• Week 18, Saturday/Sunday, Jan. 3-4: at Minnesota Vikings, TBD.

The Packers clinch a playoff berth with one win OR tie, or a Lions loss OR tie.

When do NFL playoffs start?

The wild-card round is Jan. 10-12, with two games Saturday, three Sunday and one on Monday Night Football.

NFL playoffs schedule

• Wild-card round: Jan. 10-12.
• Divisional round: Jan. 17-18.
• Conference championships: Jan. 25.
• Super Bowl 60: Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, California.

Lions schedule 2025

• Week 1: L, 27-13 at Green Bay Packers.
• Week 2: W, 52-21 vs. Chicago Bears.
• Week 3: W, 38-30 at Baltimore Ravens.
• Week 4: W, 34-10 vs. Cleveland Browns.
• Week 5: W, 37-24 at Cincinnati Bengals.
• Week 6: L, 30-17 at Kansas City Chiefs.
• Week 7: W, 24-9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• Week 8: Bye week.
• Week 9: L, 27-24 vs. Minnesota Vikings.
• Week 10: W, 44-22 at Washington Commanders.
• Week 11: L, 16-9 at Philadelphia Eagles.
• Week 12: W, 34-27 (OT) vs. New York Giants.
• Week 13: L, 31-24 vs. Green Bay Packers.
• Week 14: W, 44-30 vs. Dallas Cowboys.
• Week 15: L, 41-34 at Los Angeles Rams.
• Week 16: L, 29-24 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers.
• Week 17, Thursday, Dec. 25: at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30 p.m., Netflix.
• Week 18, Saturday/Sunday, Jan. 3-4: at Chicago Bears, TBD.