Lions on brink of playoff elimination: Explaining Detroit’s rapid regression in 2025

Lions on brink of playoff elimination: Explaining Detroit's rapid regression in 2025 image

The Detroit Lions went a combined 27-7 while winning back-to-back NFC North division titles over the past two NFL seasons. But in 2025, they entered Week 17 at 8-7 and are on the brink of missing the NFC playoffs, failing to earn even a wild-card berth.

After working so hard to build a Super Bowl-contending team and erase six seasons of playoff misses, Dan Campbell’s squad is regressing toward .500. So what happened? How did Detroit go from underdog darling to losing its explosive roar again?

Lost of coaches and personnel

The Lions had a quiet 2025 offseason, making few moves to add immediate impact talent in free agency or the draft. They also lost both of head coach Campbell’s coordinators—Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn—to head-coaching jobs, which left the offense and defense taking significant hits.

John Morton and Kelvin Sheppard, Johnson and Glenn’s respective replacements, have done well to limit the brain drain, but they haven’t received the roster upgrades needed to produce the same results.

Detroit lacked the depth to overcome a rash of key injuries, including to tight end Sam LaPorta, cornerback Terrion Arnold, and, most recently, safety Brian Branch. The passing game has been less potent, and the pass defense has been depleted. Only the Bears have had more players miss games due to injury, but the Lions’ injuries have been more severe among key contributors.

Rushing offense

The Lions pride themselves on having a dominant rushing attack. They were No. 6 in rushing yards, averaging 146.4 yards per game last season. They have fallen to No. 12 this year, downt to 123.4. T

That 23 yards difference may not seem like much, but it’s tied to several games in which teams have been able to totally shut down Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the ground. The best cases in point were the Packers in Week 1 (only 46 yards), the Rams in Week 15 (only 70 yards) and the Steelers in Week 17 (only 15!). Detroit used to have a reliable floor on the ground, but with some line reshuffling, it has been easier to take away the running game.

Third-down offense

The Lions ranked No. 4 in the NFL last season, converting third downs at an impressive 46.7 percent. This season, they’ve dropped to No. 19, converting just 38.5 percent. That decline aligns with the struggles of Detroit’s running game on early downs.

The Lions are still averaging more than 30 points per game (No. 2), down slightly from 33 points per game last season. They’ve also been nearly as efficient in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 64 percent of trips compared with 68 percent last season. Even these small differences matter, especially given that the defense has been leakier.

Scoring defense

The Lions were 7th in the NFL in allowing an average of 20.1 points per game last season. They have tumbled down to 23rd, allowing 24.9 points per game. That is notable as the Lions have been not being able to score more to compensate for the drop. They were outscoring teams by 13 points and now that’s cut by more than half to only 5 points.

Run defense

The Lions used to shut down teams on the ground and out-rush them big time. They were No. 6 in average rushing yards allowed per game, 103.0 in 2024. Now they are down to 16th at 114.9. Detroit was able to protect its run defense more last season with its frequent blowouts, forcing opponents to abandon the run more in the second half.

Now the teams can better stay with the Lions in closer games. In Week 16, the Steelers gashed them for 230 rushing yards. The Rams dropped 159 in Week 15. The Eagles outrushed the Lions in Week 11, 148-74. The Vikings outrushed them in Week 10, 142-65. Those were all tough losses suffered by the Lions.

One-possession games

The Lions were 7-2 in games decided by 8 points or fewer in 2024. They have gone 2-5 in such games in 2025, suffering a Chiefs-like cruel twist of fate. Campbell has seen his team not execute as well in tight spots against tougher opponents with lesser overall production.

Detroit hasn’t regressed to the mean, but it has rather come back a little to the NFL pack. The Lions should be able to leap back into playoff contention in 2026, but they will need to go back to being more aggressive with GM Brad Holmes and also getting a much better bill of health.

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