On Sunday, the Detroit Lions will kick off their most critical stretch of the 2025 season. They’re set to battle with Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first of three games that are all virtual must-win contests. Kickoff for the Week 16 affair is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. (EST) at Ford Field.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Lions’ playoff odds will drop to a dismal 19 percent with a loss to the Steelers. Meanwhile, the odds of Dan Campbell’s squad making the playoffs will increase to 55 percent with a win.
Just like Detroit, Pittsburgh finds itself at 8-6. However, the Mike Tomlin-led team, in what is a weak AFC North, stands atop the division and has won two straight games.
Its most recent win came on Monday night, as it disposed of the Miami Dolphins, 28-15. Rodgers was nearly perfect in the winning effort, completing 23-of-27 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. D.K. Metcalf was on the receiving end of one of those touchdowns, and led the way for the Steelers with 55 receiving yards.
Metcalf has also been Rodgers’ No. 1 target all season long, and leads all Pittsburgh receivers with 808 yards and six touchdowns. He’ll certainly be a tough cover for Detroit’s banged-up secondary, which is expected to be down both of its starting safeties once again (Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph).
Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell, who is coming off an 80-yard rushing effort against Miami, has put together a solid season in his debut campaign with Pittsburgh. The former Eagles back has accumulated a career-best 451 yards on 93 carries, good for an average of 4.8 yards per rush attempt. That average, a career-best mark for Gainwell, leads all Steelers backs this season.
Then, on defense, Pittsburgh is led by EDGE T.J. Watt, who missed Monday’s contest with Miami with a partially collapsed lung. The All-Pro defender, who has amassed a team-best seven sacks this season, was listed as a non-participant on the Steelers’ injury report Wednesday. If he’s unable to go Sunday, it’d be a big loss for Pittsburgh’s pass-rush against Detroit signal-caller Jared Goff.
Goff & Co., coming off a 41-34 defeat at the hands of the L.A. Rams in Week 15, accumulated 396 total yards of offense. Goff threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams accounting for 298 of those yards and all three of the touchdowns. St. Brown, a two-time All-Pro selection, led the way for Detroit with 164 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
The Lions should have a solid chance of replicating at least some of that success through the air against the Steelers. Through the first 15 weeks of the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most passing yards (3,394).
With all of that said, I believe Detroit should be able to capture the Week 16 victory. At this present juncture, I’ll give Campbell & Co. a 56 percent chance to secure the much-needed win.
