ALLEN PARK — The Detroit Lions are headed to Los Angeles for another chance to bolster their playoff chances against the Rams on Sunday afternoon.
A win moves Detroit’s postseason odds to 60%, while a loss drops them to 31%, per the New York Times’ playoff simulator. It’s another Jared Goff-Matthew Stafford matchup with high stakes and a ton of outside attention, too. This is the fourth time the two veteran quarterbacks will face off since the big trade nearly five years ago.
Let’s dive into three burning questions on our mind before the Week 15 game:
What are the main challenges of facing this Rams offense?
This section could be about 2,000 words on its own.
Matthew Stafford is hitting big plays, ripping defenses apart in the red zone and eating man coverage alive. Stafford has 35 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in seven games this season, and has 21 touchdowns and only one pick against man coverage, with 24 touchdowns and only one pick when pressured.
His one-two punch at wide receiver is truly elite. Davante Adams leads the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions. Puka Nacua leads the league in catches (93) and is second in yards (1,186).
Oh, and the Rams have been surging on the ground, leaning into using 13-personnel packages at a growing rate. That switch-up has been a key talking point this week, and it’s led to some impressive showings from LA’s offense, with three tight ends on the field a lot.
The Rams have rushed for more than 100 yards in five of their last six games, including a 249-yard outing last week against the Arizona Cardinals.
Former Michigan star Blake Corum has been on a tear as of late. He had 128 yards and two scores last week, with 81 yards and another touchdown in the previous game. Kyren Williams continues to handle the most work, with 156 yards and two touchdowns through the last two weeks, as well.
Adams is playing out of this world in the red zone. Stafford looks like the MVP front-runner. Nacua is one of the best all-around wide receivers in the league. And the one-two punch out of the backfield is thriving behind an impressive offensive line.
“I mean, he’s playing as good as anybody at the position right now, that’s the bottom line,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said of Stafford. “There’s a ton of under center, turning his back to the defense, play-action pass. He’s, like our guy, he’s got pinpoint accuracy. He sees it, man, he can rip it. Obviously, he’s seen everything you can see defensively; he knows the looks. But he is, he’s playing at a high level.
“If we don’t disrupt him, it’ll be a long day. It’ll be a long day. So, we have to – we have to shut down the run, as usual, and we’ve got to find a way to disrupt this guy if we can, because he’s dangerous.”
What is Detroit’s offensive mentality entering this game?
The Los Angeles Rams play a ton of zone coverage (79.7%), and are another one of those defenses that excels at keeping everything in front of them while relying on the defensive line to win.
John Morton said the Lions played a CFL-style game last week against the Dallas Cowboys, and they need to do that again. And what he means by that is avoiding third downs, and going “first, second, first, second, first, second.”
“So, that’s the way we’ve got to play,” the Lions offensive coordinator said. “Can’t get behind the chains, it’ll be tough. Might be a boring game, might be a dink-and-dump game. And we just take what the defense gives us, be smart just like we have been all year, and we’ll be just fine.”
Last week, the Lions had scoring drives of eight plays, six plays, four plays, six plays, two plays, 10 plays, five plays and three plays. They faced only eight third-down attempts, converting on three of those.
Detroit’s rushing attack has relied on explosive plays this season, and the Rams just haven’t given many of those up, allowing only 29 rushes of at least 10 yards in 13 games. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a run to go for longer than 30 yards, and they’re the only team in the league to accomplish that. On top of that, the Rams lead the NFL with only four rushing scores allowed.
LA’s pass defense has been just as stout and adept at limiting explosive plays. It could be another heavy week of dump-offs to Jahmyr Gibbs, crossers for Jameson Williams and banking on Amon-Ra St. Brown to get open early and often. They also sport the league’s second-best red-zone defense, allowing only 17 touchdowns on 40 trips inside the 20-yard line.
It’s another sign that the Rams, especially this season, might be the NFL’s most complete contender.
“You start going through cutup, and you’re like, ‘Man.’ Not many teams are getting down there, and when they do, it’s hard. It’s hard,” Campbell said of the red-zone challenge. “I would tell you this, they’re not going to let you run the ball. That’s the mentality. They’re going to try to get bigger than you at times. Once you get to a certain point down there tight enough, they’ll get bigger than you. And-or they’re going to shut down the gaps by the way they pressure.
“They’re going to make you have to do something you don’t want to do. And really, most teams, if you can run the ball, that’s where you have success in the red zone is running the football. So, they take away what you do best and force you to throw it in tight spaces, tight areas.”
Expect a busy day for Gibbs and St. Brown to try and breakthrough in the red zone. Gibbs already has a career-high 58 catches, with 26 receptions in the last four games alone. St. Brown had six grabs for 92 yards last week despite playing through a sprained ankle.
How will the Lions deploy their safeties?
We’ve been talking about this off and on all season. But it merits another mention, because Brian Branch is out for the season. Kerby Joseph suffered a setback. But at least Thomas Harper has a chance to play despite spending the week in concussion protocol.
If Harper is healthy, expect a combination of him and Avonte Maddox to handle the primary safety work. And if Harper doesn’t make it back in time for Sunday’s game, then the Lions have at least done their best to give themselves a rolodex of options.
They have Erick Hallett II on the practice squad. Hallett has spent a ton of time with the defense this year and has proven able to handle safety and slot work. Detroit also added two veteran safeties to the mix since Branch’s injury, adding Damontae Kazee to the practice squad and Jalen Mills to the roster.
Maddox was credited for stepping up in a big way when Harper exited last week’s game with a concussion. Campbell said he helped put out some fires, and defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard didn’t hold back in delivering his praise, either.
The veteran defensive back had eight tackles, forced one fumble and knocked away a pass while playing a career-high 80 defensive snaps. Pro Football Focus recognized Maddox as the team’s highest-graded defensive player. He allowed only 8 yards on two catches in coverage.
Sheppard said Maddox played a winning brand of football and that without Branch, he knows it’s “going to take a collective effort” to replace his versatile role.
“I don’t see us changing anything that we do schematically, really,” Sheppard said. “Having trusted guys like Avonte allows me to do that, so I do want to give him a lot of love and credit here. Because I know the first thing people are saying, ‘Are you going to have to change up the way you play because BB kind of — BB used to do this, BB used to do that.’
“Now, it’s the next man up. And I hope that Avonte’s hearing this interview right now, and guys doubting or asking if I got to change my scheme, and him going out and proving why I don’t.”
