The Patriots are coming off their bye week with an opportunity to clinch the AFC East with a win at home vs. the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

Buffalo came into the year as the heavy favorite to win the division for the sixth straight season. However, an early-season victory for the Patriots in Orchard Park sparked a 10-game winning streak for New England, which now has a two-game lead with four games remaining in the AFC East race. Although the Patriots are well-positioned to win the division, it gets a bit more complicated if they lose to the Bills this week.

With a loss to the Bills, the head-to-head would be even at 1-1, which would trigger the NFL’s tiebreaker formulas if the Pats and Bills finish with the same record. The next tiebreaker is division record, where the Patriots would still have a one-game advantage, but they have division games against the Jets (Week 17) and Dolphins (Week 18) remaining, while the Bills end the season vs. the Jets in Week 18. If the Patriots beat the Jets and Dolphins following a hypothetical loss to the Bills, they’d still win the AFC East, but it could come down to the wire.

To this point, their Week 5 victory over the Bills is the Patriots signature win. New England stunned the Highmark Stadium crowd with a 23-20 win on a 52-yard field goal by K Andy Borregales. For second-year QB Drake Maye, it was his first of hopefully many game-winning drives. Before we get to what has changed over the last nine weeks, let’s revisit the major themes from that Sunday night in early October.

For the Patriots offense, it was a tale of two halves, which was somewhat due to Buffalo turning up the heat in the second half. In the first half, both offenses struggled (6-3 at halftime). Maye was just 9-of-16 for 89 passing yards in the first two quarters while averaging -0.38 expected points added per drop-back. In the second half, Maye was tremendous, going 13-of-14 for 184 passing yards (+0.68 EPA per play).

One possible reason for Maye’s second-half success was that the Bills blitzed more in the final two quarters. In the first half, Buffalo only blitzed Maye twice on 20 drop-backs, but the Bills increased their blitz rate to 50% in the second half (8-of-16 drop-backs). Maye generated +0.98 EPA per play on Buffalo’s eight second-half blitzes, going 6-of-7 for 92 passing yards when the Bills brought extra rushers. Based on those numbers, one would expect the Bills, who rank 25th in blitz rate (23.1%), to use a coverage-heavy plan rather than trying to heat Maye up.

On the other side of the ball, the two major themes for the Patriots defense vs. Bills QB Josh Allen were a man-heavy coverage plan and stopping the run. New England’s 41% man coverage rate vs. Buffalo was its third-highest in a game this season, with the sticky Pats CB trio challenging the Bills receivers to create downfield separation. Although the results were mixed, the Pats won a few key rounds in man coverage, while Allen was just 1-for-3 for 23 yards on deep pass attempts.

The Patriots also held the Bills run game led by star RB James Cook in check, with Buffalo producing -0.36 EPA per rush (12th percentile) and 36% rushing success rate (45th percentile). This season, the Bills have one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks, ranking sixth in rush EPA. From this perspective, it has been the most consistent part of their offense.

Nine weeks in the NFL is a lifetime. Both teams have had injuries, roster changes, and even changes in schematic identity since they last played on Oct. 5. Still, head coach Mike Vrabel explained the benefit of reviewing the Week 5 matchup to prepare for Sunday’s showdown.

“There’s a lot that’s changed, but I think you can kind of see some of the play styles, matchups, things that they may come back to or things that we need to be more prepared for, and then kind of use that as a place to kind of go from. And then, again, some of the things that they’ve done really well, I’m sure they’ll continue to do and add wrinkles. It’s a great challenge,” Vrabel said on Monday.

Now that we’ve revisited the first matchup, there are some other trends worth mentioning. The Bills have been much better at home (7-1) than on the road, where they’re just 3-3 this season (yes, their one home loss was to the Patriots). Buffalo is averaging just 23.7 points in six road games compared to 33.4 points in Orchard Park. Vrabel is also 6-0 as a head coach coming off the bye, so hopefully those trends continue.

Let’s break down the chess match between the Bills and Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

Offense Key: Preparing for a ‘Coverage’ Plan and Over Fronts From the Bills Defense

Although the media often focuses on the offenses, the Bills defense is the side of the ball that’s having an uncharacteristically down season.

Under head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo has always had a stingy pass defense, but the Bills are currently 22nd in total DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA on defense this season, their worst ranking since at least 2018. The Patriots explosive passing offense, which ranks second in explosive pass play rate this season (19.4%), will also play a Bills defense that ranks 22nd in explosive pass play rate allowed (15.4%) – a strength-on-weakness matchup.

For as long as McDermott has been in Buffalo, the Bills have been a zone coverage defense that predominantly plays out of a four-man over fronts in a nickel package. An over front means that the defense aligns tilted toward the strong side of the formation, with a strong side three-technique lined up over the outside shoulder of the guard and a shaded nose tackle in the backside A-Gap. Therefore, the gap that is uncovered on the line of scrimmage is the backside B-Gap. Although the Bills are still basing out of over fronts, while playing the fourth-highest rate of two-high safety coverages (48.5%), they’ve gone away from playing nickel defense. The typically nickel-heavy Bills are only playing five defensive backs on 60.4% of their snaps, 19th in the NFL, their lowest rate in nine seasons under McDermott.

Instead, Buffalo is playing 20.1% of its defensive snaps in base, its highest rate since 2019, while playing the fifth-highest rate of dime this season (19.3%). Their struggles against the run may explain their uptick in base. Without standout DT Ed Oliver (IR) and now LB Terrell Bernard, the Bills defense is 31st in rush EPA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, and 29th in yards per carry allowed. With their fronts tilted to the strong side, Buffalo ranks 31st in rush EPA allowed to the weak side of the formation.

New England’s offense has struggled to run the ball this season (30th in rush EPA), creating another weakness-on-weakness matchup. In Week 5, the Pats found success with some good misdirection by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Above, the Pats mimic a power-lead scheme to the strong side, then flip the ball to rookie TreVeyon Henderson to the backside for 13 yards – a neat way to attack the numbers advantage that the offense has to the weak side of the formation.

As for the pass defense, McDermott’s roots are in cover-two schemes dating back to his days in Carolina. In Week 5, the Bills played cover two more than any other coverage (12-of-36 drop-backs, 33.3%), and then mixed in cover three zones as change-ups (22.2%), with just seven drop-backs in man coverage, mainly on third down, in their coverage diet.

Based on the success they had with it in Week 5, the Bills defense could lean more on simulating or bluffing pressure, rather than blitzing. For example, the Bills show pre-snap pressure with six defenders up on the line of scrimmage in a mug front (stand-up rushers in the A-Gaps). At the snap, they only rush four by dropping the linebackers out into short zones, creating a cover-two shell, and Maye ends up taking a sack on third down.

The Bills also mixed in two-man coverages. This time, they disguise that they’re in a single-high safety coverage and then S Cole Bishop drops into the deep-half to form cover two, with the man coverage underneath. With the Pats using split-backs to pick up the pressure, Maye only had three downfield routes, and he threw incomplete on 3rd-and-8.

One potential downside for the Bills being less blitz-happy this time around is that their pass rush is 17th in pressure rate when Buffalo doesn’t blitz (26.2%). Furthermore, since losing standout DT Ed Oliver in Week 8, the Bills pressure rate with a four-man rush is just 27.1% compared to a 46.2% pressure rate when they blitz, a +19.1% differential. Whether or not the Bills can get pressure without blitzing will be a determining factor in this game.

As always, you never know exactly what the opponent is going to do. Still, the Bills learned the hard way that Maye is one of the NFL’s best passers when blitzed, with the Pats QB ranking fourth in EPA per drop-back vs. the blitz this season. Based on the numbers, one would think that Buffalo, which doesn’t blitz much normally and instead relies on disguised zone coverages, will back off this time.

Defense Key: Prepping for the Bills Repeat Plays, Using the Texans Blueprint

The Bills offense is still one of the league’s best, with QB Josh Allen coming off a terrific performance where he posted a 96.4 total QBR in a win over the Bengals last week — an MVP performance.

Buffalo ranks fifth in scoring offense, third in EPA per play, and sixth in DVOA; if that’s perceived as a down year for Allen and company, most teams would take it. Most teams would also take being the most explosive offense in football, with the Bills generating a 15-plus yard play on 13.3% of their offensive plays. That said, there have been more bumps in the road compared to Allen’s MVP season a year ago, mainly because the weapons around the Bills franchise quarterback have been inconsistent.

Although the Bills have a great quarterback, offensive line, and run game, Buffalo is struggling to find consistent receiver play besides chain-mover Khalil Shakir. After being drafted in the second round in 2024, WR Keon Coleman has fallen out of favor, leading to the signings of Gabe Davis and Brandin Cooks, castoffs from the Jags and Saints, who are now playing roles despite being in Buffalo for only a few weeks. Plus, TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring/knee) is banged up — it’s been challenging around Allen, Cook and Shakir.

Due to streaky play at wide receiver, the Bills are leaning more on Cook and their second-ranked offensive line in run-blocking win rate to be the engine of the offense. Buffalo is fourth in called run rate (44.0%), seventh in run+play-action rate (58.45), and Allen is under-center on a career-high 47.2% of his plays (fifth-highest in NFL). The Bills are also repeating plays pretty frequently, possibly because the personnel they’re leaning on doesn’t have much time on task to build out the playbook.

Although the concepts are similar, the Bills use a heavy amount of pre-snap window dressing to dress up their staple plays. Buffalo leads the NFL in motion rate (77.7%), majors in two-back formations to create chaos in the backfield, and utilizes spinner fakes (Allen spins as he fakes the handoff) and false pullers in their play-action concepts. The Pats defense will need to have good discipline to sort through all the eye candy.

For example, the Bills spammed outside zone weak and duo schemes on 40 of their 43 rush attempts in their 249-yard rushing performance vs. the Steelers in Week 13. Zone weak is where you initially aim the run away from the strength of the formation, or the tight end side, but the Bills were doing so to set up cutback lanes for Cook to get in the secondary. Then they wanted to make the Steelers defensive backs tackle in run support.

Buffalo then has a few go-to play-action schemes off their under-center run actions. Their favorite is also a McDaniels staple, with the pulling guard simulating a trap run to get the second level to step into the line of scrimmage, creating a passing lane to the tight end on a crossing route. The Bills use pullers on just 5.8% of their under-center runs, so it might be worth anticipating play-action when the Pats linebackers see pulling guards.

To get a better blueprint to slow down the Bills offense, let’s take a look at what the Texans did in a dominant defensive effort in their 23-19 win over Buffalo in Week 12. Along with sacking Allen a career-high eight times, the Bills offense had a season-low -0.16 EPA per play (19th percentile) while turning the ball over three times. The Pats personnel on defense might not be as good as Houston’s, but they can still pull similar levers.

Rather than allowing the Bills to pin down the defense as they did to the Steelers, the Texans attacked the line of scrimmage on early downs, knowing that Buffalo calls a pass play on a league-low 40.1% of their first-down plays. Houston slanted its defensive line to get immediate penetration to shut down Buffalo’s zone schemes. Penetration is the key to slowing down zone runs, so Houston had the line crash down into the inside gap, or slant, to prevent the blocks from flowing horizontally to open the cutback lanes the Bills are trying to create.

Another way the Texans successfully fit the Bills run game is by using “spill” techniques. With the play-side end crashing down, the play-side linebacker then “splatters” the wrapping fullback, causing Cook to keep bouncing the run outside, which is where the defense wants the ball to go. Again, the idea is to prevent Cook from cutting back, using the defense’s team speed to push the ball into the sideline where the runner is less likely to crease the defense for a big gain.

In the passing game, the Bills also have some repeat calls. Mainly, they love to run the mesh concept on third down. The mesh concept is where you have intersecting crossing routes over the middle of the field that challenge man coverage. Typically, it’s paired with a flat or wheel route out of the backfield, another match/man-beater, and a “sit” route over the ball that is supposed to be an answer vs. zone coverage with the crossers stretching out the short zones. Above, the Bills ran mesh-traffic to hit Cook for 27 yards on 3rd-and-3.

The Texans defended mesh by cutting the crossing routes in the middle of the field. On the short crossers, the rat defender overtakes WR Tyrell Shavers’ crosser, allowing Shavers’ primary defender to fall off and help to the crosser coming from the other side of the formation. Then, the nickel defender passes off the deep crosser to the post-safety, allowing DB Jaylen Reed to connect to the “sit” route over the ball. Allen sees the exchange happening in the middle of the field, so he progresses from the mesh to the wheel, but LB E.J. Speed has that covered. Technically, this went down as a two-yard rush on a 3rd-and-6.

As we wrote before the bye, the Patriots run defense has fallen off over the last four games without NT Khyiris Tonga and standout DT Milton Williams (IR). Hopefully, Tonga will return from his chest injury this week. With him on the field, the Pats run defense is allowing just -0.10 EPA per rush compared to 0.00 EPA per rush without Tonga – a +0.10 EPA difference. Williams isn’t eligible to play in this game, but having their big nose tackle back would be massive.

Although it sounds backwards when facing an MVP-caliber quarterback, slowing down Cook and the Bills run game will probably be at the top of Vrabel’s to-do list this week. Then, when defending the pass, it’s about putting the game on Allen’s receivers’ shoulders. Typically, beating zone is about scheme and the quarterback reading out the coverage, whereas man coverage is more on the receivers to win their matchups.

In Week 5, the Patriots played more man coverage than usual vs. the Bills (41%), while Houston also played a heavy amount of man coverage vs. Allen (42.2%). On the season, Allen is generating a modest +0.05 EPA per play vs. man coverage, 11th among 34 qualified quarterbacks, compared to +0.24 EPA per play vs. zone (second in NFL). From this vantage point, that says more about Allen’s receivers than it does about Allen.

The one tricky part of playing man coverage against Allen is accounting for him on scrambles. The Texans have an extremely athletic front four, so they just chased him around, but the Patriots might need to use a spy while being smart with their rush lanes to keep the Bills QB in the pocket. That said, Allen has been taking more sacks this season, with a 6.9% sack rate (his highest since 2019, up from 2.6% in 2024). In other words, he hasn’t been getting away from pressure at the same rate as in the past.

Buffalo’s offense is one of the best in the league by most metrics, so don’t be fooled by media narratives into thinking this group isn’t dangerous. Still, there’s a blueprint to slow them down.

Key Matchups

WR Stefon Diggs vs. Bills CB Christian Benford

Diggs had a season-high 10 catches for 146 yards against his former team in Week 5, but the Bills didn’t have their top cornerback shadow him in the last matchup. Recently, Benford has been traveling with the opponent’s No. 1 receiver, lining up on Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase on 64.9% of his routes last week. My guess is that Diggs will get the No. 1 receiver treatment from the Bills this time around to avoid Diggs getting matched up with Bills CB Tre’Davious White (two catches, 43 yards in Week 5) and Buffalo’s safeties when lined up in the slot – this should be a fun matchup.

Pats Safeties/Linebackers vs. Bills TE Dalton Kincaid & RB James Cook

Kincaid returned from a multi-week hamstring injury to have four catches for 41 yards and a touchdown vs. the Bengals last week. In Week 5, the Bills TE had a team-high six catches for 108 yards. Along with chain-moving slot receiver Khalil Shakir (Marcus Jones matchup), Kincaid is the Bills most productive downfield target, as an effective zone-beating receiver and seam runner. We could see S Craig Woodson and LB Marte Mapu cover Kincaid, with one outside-the-box idea being that CB Carlton Davis III guards the tight end on third down. As for Cook, the Bills hunt 1-on-1 matchups for their top running back on wheel routes (8.1%), angle routes (23.2%), and passes into the flats (54%). From this perspective, the Patriots corners should have the advantage over Buffalo’s wide receivers. When the Bills have the ball, the game could be decided by New England’s safeties/linebackers vs. the Bills backs/tight ends.

OT Vederian Lowe vs. Bills EDGE Joey Bosa/AJ Epenesa

Bosa (hamstring) missed last week’s game vs. the Bengals, which the Bills reportedly hoped would be a 1-2-week injury. We’ll see if Bosa, who leads Buffalo in sacks (5.0) and total pressures (41), is healthy enough to play. If not, Epenesa plays with good raw power and technique to set a strong edge while denting the pocket. In his first start for rookie Will Campbell, Lowe was solid at left tackle vs. the Giants, allowing three hurries with zero pressures allowed in the second half. Bills edge-rusher Gregory Rousseau typically rushes over the right tackle, but maybe Buffalo hunts the matchup and flips Rousseau in some key spots.

EDGE Harold Landry vs. Bills RT Spencer Brown

Brown told reporters in Buffalo this week that he’s “good to go” after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury, while Landry has been managing a knee injury over the last several weeks. The Pats captain will rush on Allen’s arm side, where he’s extremely dangerous when he extends plays to his right. Hopefully, the bye week did Landry some good, and we’ll see how effective Brown is coming off an injury. When he was last on the field in Week 12, Brown was clearly limited by his shoulder injury vs. the Texans, and allowed two sacks and seven total pressures.

DISCLAIMER: The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of the writer and don’t necessarily reflect those of the organization. Read Full Disclaimer