
The New England Patriots are back from their bye Monday, returning for a stretch run they hope leaves them with the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
But tough back-to-back games loom. Up first: a visit from the 9-4 Buffalo Bills.
The Patriots have the benefit of four practices this week, one more than usual. As they get back to work, let’s answer some of your questions. What could still hold this team back this season? What has worked so well for them? And what can we expect next season?
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length. All stats below come from TruMedia.)
What are the biggest factors that have helped the Patriots to significantly exceed expectations? — George G.
Drake Maye is the most obvious, yet it’s still worth mentioning how absurd his second-year leap has been. It’s the kind of jump that’s going to be talked about for years to come, with other fan bases clinging to him as an example of what they hope their rookie quarterback can do.
It’s easy to grow numb to it, but it’s no less absurd that Maye is 23 years old, was stuck on a terrible team last season and is now arguably the front-runner for the league’s MVP award over Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
The other massive factor, of course, is Mike Vrabel. Put simply, the NFL is a head coach-and-quarterback league. And it’s amazing how starkly different the coaching staff is from not just last season, but also the final few years under Bill Belichick.
Putting those two aside, I’d point to two other factors. First, the offensive line is so drastically better (in part because of better coaching). Second, the rookie draft class is faring so much better than last season’s. It’s probably been underdiscussed that four of their first five draft picks are either full-time starters or major factors.
What do you think could keep the Pats from finding playoff success or winning the Super Bowl? Lack of production from the run game, opposing teams’ abilities to throw on this secondary, consistency of the O-line, red zone offense or something else? — Jack R.
The red zone struggles are concerning, and yet it’s something else that I think could keep the Patriots from winning in the playoffs.
The NFL is a passing league, and that’s generally more important than a good running game. But you can’t have a terrible running game and get to the Super Bowl. Frankly, it’s hard to get there with even a below-average group.
Of the 20 teams that reached the Super Bowl in the last 10 years, only one — the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals — ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in rushing EPA per play and rushing success rate. (The next-worst rushing team of that group was the 2021 Los Angeles Rams, who beat the Bengals in the Super Bowl.)
The Patriots rank 29th in EPA per rush and 30th in success rate. Their great passing game and a soft schedule have helped them overcome that, but unless the run game improves, I don’t think they have enough to win the Super Bowl.
Would love your thoughts on the run game. Is it the O-line’s fault or the runners’? — Dmitriy D.
With a running game this bad, it’s rarely just the O-line or the running backs. But if I have to assign blame, I’d put a bit more on the front five than the backs.
That’s in part because TreVeyon Henderson ranks fifth in the NFL in yards after contact (3.81), a sign that he’s doing a majority of the work. Now, his stats are a little hard to base things on because he has been so boom or bust. But it’s also a sign that the outside rushes (which Henderson primarily gets) are working, while the team is struggling on the interior ones.
To that point, no running back (among 48 qualifying backs in the NFL) has been hit at or before the line of scrimmage at a higher rate than Rhamondre Stevenson (58.4 percent), who gets more of the work between the tackles. Stevenson is averaging just 0.39 yard before contact this season, the second-lowest number in the league.
So to me, it’s less about the back than the runs that aren’t working — which are the ones up the middle.
Kyle Williams has had a few explosive plays, including his great touchdown catch last week. There are reports that he is consistently getting open but not getting the ball. Is he too raw and unreliable to get more touches this season? — William D.
There have been a few too many miscommunications between Williams and Maye and too much inconsistency from the rookie to expect him to take on a meaningfully bigger role in the final few games.
I think he’s just a depth guy down the stretch, and then the team hopes he can take a big step in the offseason.
After the momentum gained against the Giants, does the bye week help or hurt the Pats going into the Bills game? Will they come back stronger or lose steam? — Dan B.
I don’t put too much stock into momentum from week to week. Remember, the Patriots’ last game before “Monday Night Football” was an ugly win in Cincinnati.
So I actually think this is a good time for the bye. Plus, Will Campbell’s injury is significant. The more time off they can give him, the better.
Who will be the defensive coordinator next season? Has fill-in Zak Kuhr proven enough? — Gregg D.
It’s an interesting question that’s hard to answer at the moment, given the sensitive situation with Terrell Williams undergoing treatment for prostate cancer.
If he’s able to coach next season, it’s presumably still his job. If not, I think these final few games will go a long way in determining if Kuhr takes over the position on a full-time basis. If the team plays well, he’ll probably be the leading candidate.
If they don’t, it seems likely Vrabel would turn to Shane Bowen. Bowen and Kuhr have a good relationship, and Bowen was part of the reason Kuhr worked for the Giants last season, so maybe there is an avenue for them to work together running the defense.
Vederian Lowe wasn’t a turnstile against the Giants. Was it a turning point, or is this just a dream? (If so, please don’t wake me.) — Steve K.
I actually think this can be sustainable for a few games. Not that Lowe is suddenly going to turn into Matt Light, but in this structure with this coaching staff, he can be fine.
It’s widely viewed that the offensive line coach is the position coach who can make the biggest impact on one group. The Patriots saw the benefit in that for years with Dante Scarnecchia.
Now they’re getting a boost in going from a first-time O-line coach last season to one of the league’s most accomplished in Doug Marrone. I think that’s a big reason Lowe should be fine for a few games.
As a UK-based Pats fan, how much sleep am I going to lose next season when they get picked for more prime-time games? — Matthew L.
On Tuesday morning, my wife slid me a coffee after a few hours of sleep (thanks to our 4-year-old waking up early the morning after “Monday Night Football”) and remarked that at least we had made it through all the team’s night games. (I didn’t have the heart to bring up the potential flex for the Week 16 Ravens game — or the playoffs.)
But I did give her an early warning — get ready for five or six prime-time games next season.
This season, the Chiefs set the record with seven scheduled prime-time games, while the Cowboys have six.
The allure of Maye, Vrabel and a premier franchise means that those of us with little kids — and those of you in the UK — are likely to need lots of coffee next season.