The Green Bay Packers defense is averaging less than one takeaway per game this season (0.9, 24th in the NFL) through 13 weeks, down one full point from last year (1.8, 6th in the NFL), suggesting that the regression hit and it hit hard. However, they have had five takeaways in their last three games, nearly doubling their takeaway rate (1.7 in the last three), suggesting the regression may be over.
No matter what the case may be, those takeaways will be crucial for one of the league’s top defenses heading into the final quarter of the season. While they didn’t register a takeaway in Week 13 against Detroit, they had two interceptions of J.J. McCarthy in Week 12.
First interception
On the first interception, J.J. McCarthy’s left tackle saved him the embarrassment of throwing a ball straight to a cornerback who undercut the receiver’s route. The Vikings are running a play-action deep curl concept.
The defense is in cover-6 with cover-2 to Justin Jefferson’s side on the top of the screen. Carrington Valentine is in coverage in outside trail technique with the safety over the top. The backside is playing quarters coverage.
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McCarthy drops back to throw as Rashan Gary gets chipped by the tight end and then rushes against the left tackle Justin Skule, in for Christian Darrisaw. Gary beats Darrisaw and gets to the quarterback as he throws, swatting at his arm and causing the ball to flutter up and into the hands of Isaiah McDuffie.
Had Gary not affected the throw, Valentine would likely have picked it off as well because he undercut Jefferson’s route as McCarthy was getting ready to throw anyway. Against cover-6, McCarthy should have been looking at the quarters side with the safety and corner bailing deep.
On McCarthy’s second interception, he simply misfired on the seam route on a traditional dagger concept. There’s nothing exotic about the defense either. It’s just straight Tampa-2 coverage with McDuffie running with the seam route before falling off the seam to plug the dagger route.
The Vikings probably called this with that specific technique in mind, knowing the middle linebacker would fall off the seam to cover the dagger from inside out. Head coach Kevin O’Connell wanted McCarthy to hit the seam, and he ripped it with authority.
Unfortunately, his aggressiveness cost him because he overthrew it, likely because it looks like his footwork didn’t time up with the route concept.
His dropback is 5-step and hitch timing, but he only gained about three yards of depth in five steps, and his heels clicked on his hitch instead of his cleats staying in the ground to give him a strong base. He tried to compensate for this by strong-arming the throw and threw it right to Evan Williams for the interception.
