Could Drake Maye, better early-down defense, and improved Red Zone execution help the Patriots finally take down Tua and get a win in Miami?

Nov 17, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Patriots travel to Miami this weekend for their second matchup against the Dolphins.

This will be New England’s second straight game against a motion-heavy, Shanahanian offense with two dynamic receivers. However, there are key differences between Sean McVay’s Rams and Mike McDaniel’s unit.

Unlike LA, which prioritized downhill running, throwing outside the numbers, and using receivers as blockers in the run game, the Dolphins’ offense is all about outside runs, inside passes, and using receivers to influence run defenders.

McDaniel’s offense is tough to contend with on its own, but it will be even more deadly with Tua Tagovailoa back in the fold. The veteran missed Week 5’s meeting but is 6-0 against the Patriots as a starter. Tagovailoa’s played efficient football during Miami’s two-game winning streak, and he’s been backed by strong defense from first-year coordinator Anthony Weaver.

The game’s setting will be yet another challenge, as South Florida has historically been a house of horrors for the Patriots.

“I would say this year, when you go to Miami at this point in the year, it’s a lot different than going to Miami at the beginning of the year,” head coach Jerod Mayo explained during his Wednesday presser. “So, for us, it comes down to execution. That’s what it comes down to… But what I will say is every game is unique. Every game is unique. It’s a tough place to play. It’s not that it’s super loud or anything like that. We just haven’t been able to get over the hump.”

Here are the keys for the Patriots to exorcise some demons and get a much-needed win in Hard Rock Stadium.

MAKE MIAMI ONE-DIMENSIONAL

New England’s defense finished strong last week, but it was tough to watch through the previous quarters.

The Rams scored four touchdowns in five drives in the middle of the game, with most of that damage coming on early downs. In fact, the Patriots had the least efficient single-game performance of any defense this season by EPA/play.

“Defensively, [the Rams] only had, what, eight third downs in the game, and you just can’t win that way,” Mayo said during his postgame presser.

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp hit the Patriots’ base defense with haymaker after haymaker, putting up over 100 yards and at least one touchdown each.

The trick will be the #Patriots proving they can hold up in coverage while in their base defense

Matthew Stafford and the Rams attacked NE’s second-level defenders, picked apart their blitz looks, and created confusion off play action https://t.co/zdGlixqNGd pic.twitter.com/PrHL0X1wNO

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) November 21, 2024

Many were upset with defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington for not using Christian Gonzalez to shadow Nacua early in the game. However, upon further review, players execution was more at fault than any single coaching decision.

There will be a similarly slim margin for error against another dynamic duo this weekend, with Mayo noting Sunday’s matchup will be more about speed than size. New England’s corners largely smothered the Dolphins’ receiving corps in Week 5, but Tagovailoa’s return elevates Miami’s entire passing game.

“I will say this isn’t the same Dolphins team that we played before,” Mayo said. “That was also a reminder to the guys where you feel like you know a team. At the same time, they’re going to do things different, and Tua’s [Tagovailoa] here. You can see just the difference in that offense with Tua out there. Very good player for them.”

Ball security has been an issue for the veteran passer (more on that later), but he’s carving defenses up underneath and trails only Lamar Jackson in passer rating since Week 9.

New England corners have preached the importance of disrupting routes and throwing off timing, but creating long-yardage situations and shrinking Miami’s playbook will also be key. Tagovailoa has also been surprisingly dangerous as a scrambler, earning a perfect passer rating on such attempts in recent weeks.

Never thought I'd say this, but keeping Tua in the pocket must be a top priority for the #Patriots on critical downs

The QB has a perfect passer rating on scramble throws since Week 9, with most of those coming in critical situations like 3rd down and the RZ pic.twitter.com/A5OhBsjVLr

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) November 21, 2024

Davon Godchaux admitted the Dolphins’ outside zone scheme was effective in Week 5, which helped keep play-action and other wrinkles on the table. The ground defense has been better in recent weeks, but there have also been leaks. Miami’s speed also has the potential to create matchup problems against the Patriots’ go-to base defense.

There’s a chance Covington leans towards more three-safety nickel to counter Miami’s speed, particularly with Kyle Dugger back in action. Still, that isn’t a foolproof plan, and you can only be so patient while getting run on from a lighter front.

Whatever Covington cooks up, awareness against McDaniel’s array of motions and sound fundamentals will once be paramount.

SCORE TOUCHDOWNS IN THE RED ZONE

The Patriots’ offense has experienced a bit of a 180 recently.

Through Maye’s first few starts, the offense looked unstoppable when they reached scoring territory despite struggling to move the ball consistently. But since Week 10, New England has been an elite early-down offense while failing to consistently turn Red Zone drives into touchdowns.

Maye’s impressive maturity as a passer has been a major factor in the Patriots’ success. Known for his deep accuracy and scrambling ability, the rookie has taken what defenses give him and attacked underneath. Maye’s high football IQ was also on display last week against the Rams’ aggressive scheme. LA blitzed him on a season-high 41.3% of dropbacks, the only team to do so on at least 35% of New England’s dropbacks besides Miami (40.5%) in Week 5.

Drake Maye’s been one of the more accurate and cerebral short passers in the league after he galloped over the league in his first few weeks pic.twitter.com/5sz2S0y23T

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) November 21, 2024

In another display of maturity, Maye quickly credited his teammates and coaching staff when asked about the group’s recent success.

“I think the guys have really responded well,” he told reporters. “I think early on in the year, guys lost focus on [early plays], whether the first 10 or 15 or 20 plays and then we had them up on the call sheet. Guys know what they’re expecting, or sometimes it doesn’t really all come off of the play sheet. I think the guys have done a good job of studying that up and really focusing on it.”

The ground game regaining respectability has also given Alex Van Pelt more options as a play-caller. New England isn’t exactly bowling over opponents, but their backs have averaged 3.7 yards per carry over their past two games after averaging just 1.9 from Weeks 6-9.

Schematic flexibility and Maye’s efficient play will be crucial against the Dolphins, who have been one of the league’s stingiest defenses. However, those efforts won’t mean much if the offense’s Red Zone woes continue.

“Yeah, I think we moved the ball well,” Maye said of the offense’s performance last week. “Obviously, we had some chances there in the Red Zone, we’ve just got to punch it in. I don’t think it was something that they did. I think it’s just on ourselves, whether it’s go the extra effort, or maybe some little things here or there… I think we’ve been striving on that and focusing on that. I think maybe in Red Zone day this week, or just in general, just study it more and put some more effort into it.”

This will be a tall task against Miami’s top-10 Red Zone defense, and it could take a little Maye magic to punch in scores. But if the offense can keep from going backward, get a hat-on-a-hat in the run game, and exploit soft spots in coverage, their backfield can handle the rest.

WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE

The Patriots have a turnover problem. New England is tied for the ninth-most giveaways (14) and the fourth-fewest takeaways (8) this season, tying for the fifth-worse turnover differential (-6).

Most of the offense’s giveaways have– understandably–stemmed from their first-year signal-caller. Maye has been excellent overall, but he’s committed at least two turnovers or turnover-worthy plays in each of his full starts.

“Yeah, I think I’ve got to do a better job of that,” Maye said when asked about the issue. “It may sometimes be throwing the ball away as the best play or even an incompletion. I think at times you saw Jacoby [Brissett] do a great job of that, of just throwing it in the dirt. Even taking a short sack is what we talk about in the quarterback room. I think T.C. [McCartney] does a great job of those little things, those little reminders that can go a long way of knowing when to do things situationally… Little things like that you grow and learn and try not to replicate those mistakes.”

Mayo didn’t seem overly concerned when asked about the turnover streak, noting how Maye rarely makes the same mistake twice.

“I will say this: one of [Drake’s] strengths that you continue to see now, he’s not a repeat-error guy,” the head coach explained. “There are definitely looks that he still hasn’t seen, or we haven’t practiced against. It may confuse him at first, but he’s not a repeat-error guy, and that’s a good trait for a quarterback to have.”

Mistakes will happen with any young quarterback, but continuing to minimize avoidable turnovers will be crucial. Maye would also benefit from improved blindside protection and chemistry with his receivers.

Defensively, New England is in the midst of its second two-game turnover drought in five weeks. However, as Covington explained during his Thursday presser, this dry spell isn’t due to a lack of preparation.

“We want takeaways because a lot of the time, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game,” Covington said. “So, that’s definitely a point that we want to make. And I’m not sitting up here saying that we don’t want to get takeaways. We do want to get takeaways… We are emphasizing it as a coaching staff…then seeking out the opponents, and we show [the players], ‘Hey, this guy holding the ball, poor ball security, this person, this person.’”

The coordinator also pointed to specific practice drills aimed at forcing turnovers. If players take that coaching to the field, there should be chances to end their drought on Sunday.

Only the Cowboys (19) and Patriots (18) have fumbled more than the Dolphins (16) this season. Veteran back Raheem Mostert has coughed it up twice since Week 7. Tagovailoa has been strip-sacked three times since returning in Week 8. He also committed two turnover-worthy throws under pressure in Week 10 against the Rams.

Tagovailoa has brought New England down to the wire in each of their meetings, and they have yet to top him. Maye could be the key to getting over that hump, but protecting and taking away the football will likely be the difference.