Coming out of the bye a few weeks ago, Dan Campbell provided his team with a detailed look at the NFC landscape, as November and December loomed. It was his way of letting them know where they stood and who was in their way.
“I just kind of put up where everything is stacking in the NFC right now,” Campbell said last month. “It’s very competitive, especially at this point in the season for one conference. But all I stated was, ‘Hey, this is where we’re at, this is where these teams are at, and this thing’s about to shake out within the month of November.’ You’re going to start seeing the risers and fallers, and a lot of these teams are playing each other. We’re one of them. So, it really is just handle your business, man. And the bottom line is, find a way to win your division.”
That’s still the goal, and the win Sunday against the Giants kept it intact. But there’s work to be done to accomplish that. It wasn’t a guarantee at 14-2 entering Week 18 last year, and it won’t be this year — as a three-team race unfolds in the NFC North.
However, the Lions have a chance to finish as a riser. Here’s a look at their path forward.
Where things stand with the Lions
The Lions are 7-4, in third place in the NFC North and eighth place in the NFC standings — on the outside looking in. It’s unfamiliar territory for the team since turning the corner in 2023, but the Lions will have to play catch-up if they want to win the division for a third consecutive season. Winning Sunday, however ugly, was still crucial for those efforts. It’s worth discussing before looking ahead.
Detroit needed overtime to defeat the New York Giants — a scrappy, but flawed team that’s light on offensive skill talent. Granted, the Giants nearly beat the Packers and Bears, but it was a mess of a game regardless. The defense was prone to coverage busts and explosive plays through the air. Detroit recorded an explosive pass rate allowed of 27 percent vs. the Giants. That’s the highest rate allowed by the Lions in a game this season, and their 10 explosive passes allowed are tied for the second-most in a game by any team this season.
The pass rush also struggled to get home, until Aidan Hutchinson ended the game with a sack. Before then, Jameis Winston threw for 366 yards and accounted for three touchdowns, including a receiving TD on a trick play. It’s not reflective of how Kelvin Sheppard’s unit has performed on the whole this season, but a 27-point effort against a third-string quarterback and an offense down its two best skill players is a bit concerning. It was jarring to watch at times.
That said, this defense is getting healthier with the return of cornerback D.J. Reed, who was on a snap count (20-30 plays) Sunday. Cornerback Terrion Arnold, safety Kerby Joseph and edge rushers Marcus Davenport and Josh Paschal are getting close. Reinforcements are on the way.
Offensively, Jahmyr Gibbs saved the day. When the offense was stagnant and struggled moving the ball, Gibbs was there to clean up things. He totaled 264 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns on 26 touches — the clear best player on the field. The Lions have been heavily reliant on Gibbs as their offense figures things out, but is he capable of willing them to wins week in and week out? He might need to be.
Star tight end Sam LaPorta could miss the rest of the season after undergoing back surgery. Jameson Williams ranks fourth among WRs in drops this season with seven, and was held without a catch against New York. All-Pro WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is up to three drops, after finishing the 2024 season with just one. That doesn’t include a pair of passes that bounced off St. Brown’s hands vs. the Giants in Week 12, which PFF did not chart as drops. He’s in a bit of a rough stretch, but still did damage Sunday. However, it was the Giants. They fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowen the morning after the game. They rank 30th in yards allowed and scoring defense.
Can this Lions’ offense hold its own against better defenses on the schedule? Not if the interior offensive line can’t hold up. Not if the drops continue. Not if defenses key in on Detroit’s in-breaking routes due to the lack of deep shots (the Lions are dead last in percentage of attempts 20 or more yards downfield at 6.8 percent). There’s still talent at the skill positions, but the week-to-week consistency hasn’t been there. Getting left guard Christian Mahogany back in December could help, and maybe the Lions look to get rookie guard Miles Frazier more involved if things don’t improve. This offense might just have to play a more patient game — relying on the run and sticking with it — as it figures things out.
Remaining schedule and NFC North picture
The Lions have six remaining games against the Packers, Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Vikings and Bears. Three home (Packers, Cowboys, Steelers); three road (Rams, Vikings, Bears). Per Tankathon, the Lions are tied for the third-toughest remaining schedule in terms of winning percentage. But the good news is the Packers (first) and Bears (third) are in the same boat.
Of Detroit’s remaining games, the Rams (8-2), Packers (7-3-1) and Bears (8-3) appear to be the most difficult — though the Cowboys (5-5-1) are playing good football of late. Those divisional games are more important for the Lions’ sake. A win over the Packers this week would guarantee at least a second-place standing in the division entering Week 14. If the Lions win this week and the Bears lose to the Eagles in Philadelphia, Detroit can reclaim first place in the NFC North as early as Friday evening.
Green Bay has remaining contests against the Lions (away), Bears (home), Broncos (away), Bears (away), Ravens (home) and Vikings (away). A loss to the Lions on Thursday would be brutal, considering Green Bay’s next four games would come against current playoff teams. The Bears have found ways to win games — albeit, against light competition. The Broncos have won eight in a row and boast one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Ravens have won five in a row and are starting to look like themselves again. Green Bay’s schedule is not light work.
The Bears, meanwhile, have faced the third-easiest schedule this season with a combined winning percentage of .449 for their opponents. But that’s about to change. Their remaining schedule is tied for the third-hardest with the Lions. Arguably their toughest remaining game will come this Friday vs. the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Eagles aren’t exactly overpowering teams this season, but that will be a crucial test for Ben Johnson’s Bears. They’ll finish with the Eagles (away), Packers (away), Browns (home), Packers (home), 49ers (away) and Lions (home). The Lions currently own the tiebreaker over the Bears with a head-to-head win in Week 2. We’re about to find out if this team is ready for playoff football.
Outlook for the rest of the season
Per The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the Lions are projected to finish 11-6 — finishing second in the NFC North to the Packers (11-5-1).
All three teams in the NFC North race control their own destiny, but the winner of Thursday’s Thanksgiving game between the Packers and Lions will significantly improve its chances. The Lions currently own a 34 percent chance to win the division. With a win Thursday, that number will improve to 53 percent, while a loss will drop it to 11 percent.
The Packers currently own a 50 percent chance to win the division, which will jump to 75 percent with a win over the Lions and fall to 31 percent with a loss. We’re due for a seismic shift one way or another Thursday. And despite a current first-place standing, the playoff simulator is not as high on the Bears — giving Chicago a 16 percent chance to win the division. Even wins over the Eagles and Packers in their next two games only give them a 54 percent chance to win the NFC North.
Still, it’s shaping up to be a fascinating finish. The Lions have flaws, but certainly aren’t alone. It’s worth noting that if the Lions win three of their final six games, their chances of making the playoffs sit above 95 percent. The division is the goal, but that’s the baseline to make the playoffs.
This isn’t the juggernaut of a team we saw last year, but a step back from 15 wins was to be expected. Detroit’s goals are intact, and this team has a chance to make it farther than last year’s did — if it can round into form over the final six weeks.
“At the end of the day, it’s like, you take it the way it comes and you just try to improve along the way, and you just never know,” Campbell said Monday. “I mean, 15-2 felt great last year until you get booted right out. Then it’s like, maybe we’ve got to go the hard road and just win. Let’s just win and find a way every week and grind it out.”
