• The Chiefs‘ defense held the Colts‘ offense in check: Kansas City surrendered only a 25.5% success rate and 10 first downs against one of the NFL’s best units.
• Steve Spagnuolo is getting back to his bread and butter: The Chiefs have blitzed at a higher rate over their last two games, especially on late downs.
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After 11 weeks of the 2025 NFL season, a number of surprise themes had emerged throughout pro football, from unexpected teams breaking out at the top of divisions to squads relying more on Jumbo sets. But perhaps nothing was more astonishing than the Kansas City Chiefs sitting at 5-5 with only a 59% chance to reach the postseason.

Much of the Chiefs’ playoff lives oriented around the team’s effort in Week 12 against the then-8-2 Indianapolis Colts. If the result is any indication, Kansas City may be just fine — mostly because of its defense.

Indeed, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit was up to the challenge against the league’s No. 1 offense. In the team’s 23-20 overtime victory, the Chiefs contained Indianapolis to only a 25.5% success rate — easily a season low — along with -0.033 EPA per play, 10 first downs and just five explosive plays.

The foremost headache on the Colts’ offense is containing superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, but Spagnuolo’s bunch was clearly well-prepared. Indianapolis averaged only 3.9 net yards per rush, including a balanced 1.5 yards before and after contact.

In other words, Chiefs defenders both met Taylor fairly quickly and also didn’t miss chances to bring him to the ground. More specifically, Kansas City tallied only two missed tackles in run defense, per initial PFF run charting, with Taylor limited to a season-worst 29 yards after contact.

In addition to stopping runs, Spagnuolo’s bunch preyed on the Colts in passing situations as well. The Chiefs held Indy to -0.007 EPA per pass thanks to lockdown coverage.

Indeed, Colts pass-catchers were charted as having some type of separation (a step, being open or wide open) on just 20 of 50 offensive snaps. Likewise, four Chiefs defenders earned a 70.0-plus PFF coverage grade on first review: Jaden Hicks, Jaylen Watson, Nick Bolton and Trent McDuffie.

It’s not as though Kansas City’s pass rush was overwhelming, either. The Chiefs garnered only 13 pressures on Daniel Jones’ 33 dropbacks, securing a 30.3% pass-rush win rate with zero sacks. Instead, Spagnuolo’s unit was disciplined in both the front four and secondary, preventing chunk opportunities for the NFL’s most efficient — and one of its most explosive — offenses.

What also assisted: Chris Jones returning to his dominant form. After a sluggish last three matchups, Jones was a game-wrecker against the Colts, posting an 82.7 overall PFF grade on early review. Jones was especially strong as a pass rusher, collecting a team-high four pressures on a 16.1% pass-rush win rate.

Schematically, Spagnuolo has maintained a similarly predominant rate of zone coverage over the last two weeks as compared to the start of the year — mostly Cover 3, Cover 2 and Quarters. However, in signature fashion, he’s blitzed at a higher clip (38.7% vs. 32.3%), including on late downs (47.8% vs. 36.5%). That slight tweak can presumably align with the Chiefs ranking third in conversion rate allowed (23.0%) in Weeks 11-12 compared to 15^th in the prior window.

Kansas City’s offense has been a sleeping giant all season, placing second in EPA per play and third in success rate — yet only ninth in points scored (277). But as efficiency and scoring have dipped a bit over the last two weeks, Spagnuolo’s defense has started to carry the freight. Now, the team’s defense is clandestinely in the top 10 in both EPA per play and success rate.

Having moved to 6-5, the Chiefs are right back in the playoff mix thanks to their defense stepping up in a humongous way. That refrain has carried Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid & Co. to the postseason in recent years, and it may be shaping up to be true yet again.

If Kansas City’s offense can fully awaken, the team’s defense — with contributors at all three levels — could render the 2025 Chiefs not just a group sneaking into late January, but one that could threaten to win it all.