The Kansas City Chiefs are certainly defying the odds with their 5-5 start.

As The Athletic’s Mike Sando pointed out in his recent column, Kansas City is well off its win-loss pace from last year’s 15-2 season despite posting better marks in numerous major statistical categories, including points scored and allowed per game.

Also in the Pick Six this column, we touch on the much improved #chiefs 😉 pic.twitter.com/ZfoG8bL1bB

— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) November 17, 2025

So what’s going on? How have the Chiefs still lost so much, leaving them fighting for their playoff lives through 10 games?

One of the answers, it turns out, doesn’t show up in the down-by-down numbers. Instead, it has revealed itself during the most clutch moments of games.

That’s where the Chiefs haven’t just been bad this year — they’ve been almost historically inept.

An un-Mahomes-like trend

Coming into this season, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, for good reason, had established himself as one of the greatest big-moment QBs of all time.

K.C. rallied from double-digit deficits, for instance, in all three of Mahomes’ Super Bowl wins. Last year provided more evidence, as the Chiefs went 12-0 in one-score games, including the playoffs.

It’s that backdrop that has made this year so … strange.

The Chiefs are 0-5 this season in one-score games, and a deeper dive only illuminates the immense issues they’ve had in high-leverage moments.

TruMedia provides the data. The service allows us to search for regular-season plays with the following criteria this season:

• When the score was within 8 points either way

• The final five minutes of regulation

• Only non-kneeldown snaps

Last season, the Chiefs were just fine in these gotta-have-it moments. Their 43 percent offensive success rate ranked 13th among NFL teams, and they also completed 57 percent of their passes.

This season? Saying it’s been rough might not be strong enough.

It’s a small sample, yes. But these are the exact times when making one play could help secure a victory — and they’re the type of snaps that end up mattering more than others earlier in the game.

The Chiefs offense has had 11 snaps with the “close-and-late” scenario detailed above. On those plays, Mahomes is 2-for-10 passing for 29 yards while also taking a sack.

Another way to look at it? Add a delay-of-game penalty, and the Chiefs’ 11 combined snaps here have resulted in a net of 13 yards.

This sort of situation was Mahomes’ biggest regret from Sunday’s road loss to the Denver Broncos. After getting the ball back with 4:05 left in a tie game, the Chiefs followed with an incompletion, incompletion and sack before turning it over to the Broncos offense.

To be fair, Mahomes and the Chiefs have faced some difficult circumstances under this umbrella. Late drives against the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars, for instance, required some desperation throws because of clock considerations.

Still, Mahomes has thrived in these back-against-the-wall situations before, including his heroics in the famous “13 seconds” playoff game against Buffalo, when he marched the Chiefs 44 yards on two plays to get his team into field goal range.

Even recognizing the above caveats, we can still say that almost no offense has performed as this much of an outlier. The Chiefs’ offensive success rate of 18 percent in this late scenario (two out of 11 plays) is the lowest of any NFL team over the last eight seasons. Among teams with at least 10 snaps, it’s also the worst mark of any team in the last decade.

A more specific issue for the defense

The Chiefs defense, meanwhile, has had its own personal kryptonite this season: getting off the field.

Let’s go back to TruMedia. Keeping all the filters above (the score within 8 points either way, the final five minutes of regulation, only non-kneeldown snaps), let’s take into account only third- and fourth-down plays.

The Chiefs have faced seven downs that fit that criteria in 2025. Those have resulted in:

• Six opponent first downs on seven attempts

• 4-for-4 passing for 69 yards

• Conversions on one third-and-15, another third-and-14 and two third-and-7s

Nix to Sutton!@Broncos convert a 3rd-and-15 😮

KCvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/IGe3A47UCA

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2025

The Chiefs’ only “stop,” in fact, was limiting Bills running back James Cook to a 1-yard run on a late third-and-7. Even that deserves an asterisk, though, as the Bills mainly were looking to run the clock with a 7-point lead and 1:11 left (the Chiefs had no timeouts remaining).

These types of defensive results, as one might expect, are extreme.

Again, it’s a small sample. But the Chiefs’ 14 percent defensive success rate in this situation (1-for-7) is tied for the worst NFL mark ever by a team in the 26 seasons that TruMedia has been tracking the data.

K.C.’s 13 yards allowed per play, meanwhile, are tied for the seventh-worst mark over the past decade.

It doesn’t make much sense, especially considering the team’s most recent season. Last year, when facing nine snaps in these clutch situations, the Chiefs defense was excellent, providing 0.52 expected points per play.

That mark ranked No. 1 out of all NFL defenses.

What’s next?

The bottom line is that no matter how unclutch the Chiefs have been so far, this level seems unlikely to continue.

For now, though, it has been a primary reason the team hasn’t been able to get out of its season-long slump in competitive games.

K.C. is at roughly 56 percent to make the postseason, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, and we can likely say this much looking ahead:

The Chiefs’ season won’t end up where they’d like if they can’t change their results in the season’s biggest moments.