From some standpoints, the Bengals’ season is effectively over, and has been for some time. For instance, they started the year 0-3, usually more or less a death knell for playoff contention. They’ve gotten things together to a degree since then, but few teams go through half of a season below .500 and go on to qualify for postseason play.

Nonetheless, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow believes that his team can still make it to the playoffs. Burrow stated a goal to win ten games, usually the bar for making the playoffs, meaning that the Bengals would need to win seven of their remaining nine, a task the quarterback described as “doable.”

Burrow on the slow start pic.twitter.com/xJFZGI9WNf

— Ari M (@AriMeirov) October 27, 2024

From a certain standpoint, it’s hard to get behind the notion that the Bengals will win seven more games. The Cincinnati defense hasn’t shown the kind of consistency needed to go on a run like that, meaning that Burrow and the offense would need to be more or less perfect week in and week out to give the team a realistic chance.

However, in terms of getting to the postseason, Burrow might actually have a point. The Bengals are 3-5, but that only puts them a game and a half out of the playoff picture, as they currently sit in the AFC’s ninth seed. With the Pittsburgh Steelers at 5-2 and the Baltimore Ravens 5-3, the AFC North division title is probably off of the table, but the teams directly ahead of Cincinnati aren’t all that intimidating.

The Los Angeles Chargers are currently in the seventh spot in the standings with a 4-3 record, and the Indianapolis Colts are right behind at 4-4. This raises the question of whether it will actually take ten wins to make it into the back end of a weak AFC playoff field, or if nine might be sufficient.

In the three seasons with a 14-team playoff bracket and 17-game regular season, only one of the six teams to finish seventh in their conference has won as many as 10 games, although the 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers had to finish 9-7-1 to finish seventh ahead of three 9-8 teams. Many teams to go in at 9-8 have done so via tiebreakers, meaning that several 9-8 teams have also been left out of the tournament and that 8-9 has not yet been good enough.

The Bengals are down but not out at 3-5, but if they’re going to actively climb through the standings, the defense is going to need to take a big step up, even if they only need to win six of their remaining games. With four games left in divisional play, and a key road clash against the Chargers, it will certainly be a tough road to find the nine or ten wins generally needed for playoff qualification.