It made perfect sense for the Blackhawks to sign Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi during the offseason. It makes a lot less sense now seeing how they’ve used them.
Both players felt like the kind of good stop-gap top-six talents who would be able to give Connor Bedard the support he was seriously lacking in his rookie season. They felt like perfect fits, too, with Teravainen as the defensively conscious playmaker and Bertuzzi as the gritty worker bee.
A creative scorer, a responsible playmaker and an effective grinder should be line chemistry heaven, right? It is for most top teams, but the Blackhawks themselves wouldn’t really know — that trio has played for a grand total of 40 seconds this season.
To Chicago’s credit, the Blackhawks started with a line that had a similar, albeit lesser, mix with Nick Foligno in Bertuzzi’s place. That line really clicked with 59 percent of expected goals while outscoring opponents 4-3 — only for the team to abandon it. For reference, the Blackhawks didn’t have a single line last year that played over 50 minutes and had an expected goal rate above 54 percent.
That’s the point where Bedard started to struggle and the team tried seemingly every combination — the Blackhawks have had six straight games where Bedard played with different linemates — to get him going. Except the one that should work and the one that already did work, of course.
In between all that, Bedard has also taken some spare shifts here and there with Bertuzzi and Taylor Hall, another strong combination of grit and playmaking skill. They had an 85 percent xG together and scored a goal in 12 sporadic minutes, but haven’t actually taken a regular shift together.
Play Bedard with the team’s best offensive players on a line with someone who can do the dirty work, and he looks good. Really good. It’s not a novel concept and only takes one look around the league to see how other top lines anchored by a superstar are built. There’s almost always a complementarily skilled star next to him with an elite grinder rounding things out. Chicago may not have another star, but the Blackhawks do have offensively-minded talent that should fit Bedard’s game well. For whatever reason, the Blackhawks have actively avoided that tried-and-true formula and it’s been to Bedard’s detriment.
There’s one other important factor to Bedard’s success: keeping him away from the toughest defensive assignments that he floundered in last season. For now anyway.
The Blackhawks seemingly recognized that last year by creating an actually strong shutdown line anchored by Jason Dickinson, one that was able to alleviate some of the defensive pressure off Bedard and take on tough minutes. They started the season that way too — until Tuesday night when the Bedard linemate wheel spun again and landed on Dickinson, a move that makes it really feel like the Blackhawks coaching staff has lost the plot.
Do Bedard and Dickinson work together? Yes. We saw it last year and we saw it again on Tuesday night when Bedard set up Dickinson for two goals and the line dominated at five-on-five. The problem is that it combines two opposing leaders (Bedard as the team’s offensive anchor and Dickinson as the defensive one), leaving the top line without much of an identity and the rest of the lineup looking fairly listless. It puts more defensive burden on Bedard and more offensive pressure on Dickinson, worlds neither are particularly well suited for. The pair works because it’s two good players, but it leaves a weird mix otherwise — especially with the team’s lack of centers available. After Dickinson, the team used Foligno, Ryan Donato and Lukas Reichel down the middle on Tuesday. That’s ugly (and avoidable) stuff.
None of this is particularly groundbreaking and that’s what makes it so frustrating. We were supposed to be treated to a big Bedard breakout in his sophomore year. Instead, it feels like the Blackhawks, against their own best interest, have done everything in their power to limit that from happening. Their reward for it is a spot in the league’s basement.
16 stats
1. Macklin Celebrini’s growing pains
It’s getting harder each year for teenagers to really thrive in the NHL, especially with how putrid some of their landing spots are. Bedard learned that in his rookie year and Celebrini is learning it in his.
To his credit, Celebrini has four goals and five points in eight games to start his career, but like Bedard’s rookie campaign, there’s a lot to be desired defensively. Right now Celebrini ranks as one of the worst Sharks forwards in his on-ice chance and shot rates and that stems entirely from his work in his own zone. Relative to teammates, the Sharks are allowing 7.5 more shot attempts and 0.69 more expected goals against with Celebrini on the ice so far.
Celebrini will get there eventually and he has played tougher minutes than he arguably should, but it’s another lesson that even the best prospects need some time to figure out the best league in the world.
Will Dustin Wolf win the Calder Trophy? (Rich Gagnon / Getty Images)
2. Dustin Wolf: Calder Trophy favorite
We’re 19 games in and Calgary is still in a playoff spot. The Flames’ chances of winning the lottery have dropped from six percent to two percent as a result and there’s one major culprit: Wolf. The rookie goaltender has a .925 save percentage in 10 games this season and has already saved 8.2 goals above expected, good for ninth in the league. That’s sandwiched between Juuse Saros and Andrei Vasilevskiy — good company to keep.
Wolf looks as dominant as he did in the AHL and if we were voting for the Calder after the first quarter, he’d be my pick.
3. Trevor Zegras needs a change of scenery
In 18 games this year, Zegras has just six points, 42 percent of expected goals and is getting outscored 12-7. All significant declines from an already trying year last season leads to a minus-2.0 Net Rating to start the year, one of the 50 worst marks in the league. It really just doesn’t feel like it’s working for him in Anaheim.
4. The Canucks’ usage problem on defense
Spot the problem.
Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek
GF%: 63.1%
xGF%: 61.2%
Tyler Myers and Carson Soucy
GF%: 26.5%
xGF%: 42.0%
Erik Brannstrom and Vincent Desharnais
GF%: 86.7%
xGF%: 69.0%
Two pairs are working tremendously right now for the Canucks and the other isn’t. There’s a reason for the discrepancy and part of it comes down to usage. Myers and Soucy take on the team’s toughest minutes while also getting a much larger share of defensive zone starts. It’s a difficult role that helps the other two pairs flourish, but it’s clear the balance is off. If a team’s shutdown pair is getting outscored by a 3-to-1 margin while being badly out-chanced, it’s probably not working.
The Myers-Soucy pair is not working.
There’s hope there given how the duo looked last season with respectably mid numbers given their role. But their numbers look far from respectable right now. If the Canucks are set on keeping these pairs as constructed, a better balance with how each pair is used might be in order. Myers and Soucy are struggling under the burden while the other two pairs both look like they can take on more responsibility.
5. Devon Toews’ rough start
Things will get better for the Avalanche as they get healthier, but they also need their best players to be at their best. Most of the core is there with the exception of Toews, who has had a tough start to the year. His 49 percent xG rate is second last among Avalanche blueliners and eight percentage points behind Cale Makar’s, his most frequent partner. That’s a troubling difference given how much the duo plays together. For the year, Toews currently has a minus-1.2 Net Rating which ranks 144th among defensemen.
6. The return of Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston?
Leave it to Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston to have arguably their best games of the season on the day I was about to write that I was starting to worry about them.
Going into Wednesday’s game against San Jose, neither player was scoring, shooting, or play-driving anywhere close to their usual degree. Dallas may have been outscoring teams with both players on the ice, but it was hard to credit either Robertson or Johnston considering what they individually delivered. It’s been an especially disappointing start for what was supposed to be a bounce-back for Robertson and a breakthrough for Johnston.
All is not forgiven just yet, but a multi-point effort from the duo while dominating at five-on-five might be the spark the pair needs to get going. In a star-studded West, the Stars need their stars at their best. Here’s hoping Robertson and Johnston’s effort against the Sharks is a sign of things to come.
7. Predators still haven’t found what they’re looking for
Nashville’s playoff hopes are already slim after a disastrous start, but we know this team has the ability to get hot and go streaking after last season’s canceled U2 concert.
For those at home comparing, the team’s current hole is a fair bit deeper than the one they faced on February 15 after losing 9-2 to the Stars. While Nashville had less runway remaining at the time, its record was better (85-point pace then compared to 65-point pace now) which put the Predators’ playoff chances at 18 percent. That’s more than double the team’s current odds of eight percent.
If any team can go on a scorching hot run, it’s the Predators. But while eight percent isn’t insurmountable, it’s a massive hole even a canceled concert catalyst would struggle to fix.
8. Predators positive on special teams
A lot has gone wrong for the Predators this season, but at the very least both of the team’s special teams units have looked pretty strong. Nashville has a top-10 power play and is third in generating chances this season. On the penalty kill, the power of Juuse Saros has the team allowing just 3.5 goals against per 60, which leads the league.
If the Predators could just figure things out at five-on-five they might be able to salvage this season. That’s a big if when the team ranks 23rd in expected goals percentage.
9. Jets’ long-range regression
One early sign of impending regression is long-range shooting percentage. Not that many of us need any reminder that a 16-3-0 team is going to fall back to earth, but it’s still interesting to note how sharp Winnipeg’s shooting has been from distance. Based on NHL EDGE data, the Jets scored on 3.2 percent of their long-range shots last season while the league’s best team was at 5.3 percent. This year they’re scoring on 9.8 percent of their long-range shots, over three percentage points more than the next-best team.
Utah made a big bet with Mikhail Sergachev. Early returns suggest it was a good one. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
10. Mikhail Sergachev proving he’s No. 1 in Utah
Few players saw their stock fall harder in 2023-24 than Mikhail Sergachev. In 2022-23 he looked like Tampa Bay’s future No. 1, scoring 64 points and driving play extremely well in a tough-minute role. He looked like a do-it-all stud — he just couldn’t follow it up. Everything went wrong last season on the ice … and that was before a major injury sidelined him for the rest of the season.
That inconsistency and injury made it difficult to know what exactly Sergachev was heading into the 2024-25 season. Utah made a big bet that he was still the No. 1 stud he looked like he was on the path to becoming in 2023, while many in the game were a lot more skeptical.
Early returns suggest Utah made a solid bet; Sergachev is delivering. In a tough-minute role, Sergachev is once again doing it all earning 53 percent of expected goals so far and 55 percent of actual goals, both well ahead of what the team is otherwise doing. That’s especially impressive given the difficulty of his minutes, as is his 55-point pace.
Sergachev’s plus-2.5 Net Rating currently ranks 27th among all defensemen and it feels like there’s room for him to climb the ranks.
11. Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak eating difficult minutes
No team has had a more arduous schedule to start the season than the Lightning. The average opponent that Tampa Bay has faced has a plus-13 Net Rating which leads the league.
That’s put an especially difficult strain on the team’s shutdown pair of McDonagh and Cernak, who have had to face the absolute toughest minutes in the league. Their average opponent has had an Offensive Rating of plus-3.3 which makes their defensive work even more impressive than it already is. In 232 minutes together, the duo has been on the ice for just 2.37 xGA per 60 and 0.99 GA per 60 — both very stingy marks.
12. Top-six worries in New York
The Rangers’ underlying numbers look more formidable than usual, but that’s being entirely driven by the bottom six — all of whom rank ahead of the team’s top six in both xG and goals this season. That’s good news for the team’s depth, but the stars not shining at five-on-five is not ideal.
Across the board, all five returning members of the top six have seen considerable drops at five-on-five compared to last season.
Rangers’ big five 2023-24
xG with: 51.2 percent
Goals with: 52.8 percent
xG without: 44.9 percent
Goals without: 44.3 percent
Rangers’ big five 2024-25
xG with: 49.3 percent
Goals with: 45.4 percent
xG without: 60.5 percent
Goals without: 83.1 percent
Mika Zibanejad’s line has been an especially big problem here with Zibanejad’s xG percentage dropping to 44 percent on the season, one of the worst marks on the team. The Rangers have paid the price for it on the scoreboard, too, being outscored by a 13-8 margin.
That effect has at least been recognized by the coaching staff to the point that it may actually be unfair to call Zibanejad’s line the team’s second line. His minutes at five-on-five have been cut to 11.7 per game this year, eighth among forwards on the team and down from 13.1 per game last year.
13. Rangers’ soft schedule
What makes all that especially worrying? The Rangers have had the second easiest schedule so far with an average opponent Net Rating of minus-11.
Of New York’s 17 games, only six have come against likely playoff teams, where the Rangers have generally struggled. They’re taking care of business against the league’s weakerthans, but they’ll need to step it up against the better teams going forward. The five-on-five divide is noteworthy.
Rangers vs. above-average teams (3-3-0)
xG: 40.1 percent
Goals: 40.7 percent
Rangers vs. below-average teams (9-1-1)
xG: 61.0 percent
Goals: 69.3 percent
14. Capitals’ suddenly star-studded core
The Capitals currently have five players in the top 20 for Net Rating and three in the top 10: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, Rasmus Sandin and Connor McMichael. Hard to imagine many saw that coming.
While it’s unlikely they all maintain that pace (Strome and Ovechkin’s on-ice shooting percentage is right around 20 percent), it’s a helluva start for a team that looked incredibly short on star power going into the season. The growth of Strome and breakthroughs from Sandin and McMichael — if sustained — could give this team some unexpected staying power.
Pierre-Luc Dubois’ resurgence with the Capitals has been an under-the-radar storyline. (Isaiah J. Downing / Imagn Images)
15. Pierre-Luc Dubois’ bounce-back
Somewhat lost amidst all the other great stories coming out of Washington is the resurgence of Dubois at five-on-five. He’s scoring 2.35 points per 60 which is way up from the 1.75 average he’s been at the prior two seasons. That’s despite not having a five-on-five goal, though that’s not for a lack of trying as his individual expected goal rate is also up from 0.75 last year to 1.09 this year. That jump is entirely a result of finding more dangerous areas, too, as his shot rate has actually dropped from 6.2 per 60 to 5.5. That means more dangerous shots with an expected shooting percentage of 19.8 percent vs. 12.1 percent last season.
More impressive for Dubois is what he’s providing as a two-way shutdown center. The Capitals are earning 60 percent of the expected goals with Dubois on the ice, one of the best marks on the team. Relative to teammates, his plus-0.34 per 60 impact would be a career high — a strong effort at both ends of the ice that represents a return to form toward the possession driver he was earlier in his career. That he’s doing all that taking on the toughest assignments every night is what’s putting Dubois back on the map. He’s currently on pace for a plus-13 Net Rating, up from minus-0.9 last year.
16. Red Wings’ sputtering offense
I didn’t have high hopes for the Red Wings going into the season, but even I couldn’t fathom just how anemic they would look offensively.
Through 18 games the Red Wings are generating just 2.06 xGF per 60 and have scored only 1.48 GF per 60. The former is the absolute worst mark in the league and the latter isn’t far off.
Just how bad is it in Detroit? At five-on-five the Red Wings are generating close to the same amount of offense as the 2019-20 version — the one that played at a 45-point pace. That team actually scored more often. Ouch. It’s shaping up to be a long season in Motown.
