The stakes in the Dolphins vs. Browns game this week are surprisingly high for a Week 7 matchup between two 1-5 teams.
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) is held by Miami Dolphins offensive tackle Patrick Paul, right, during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024, in Cleveland.(AP Photo/David Richard)
It’s not hyperbole to think this could be a franchise-altering game for either team. Both Browns coach Kevin Stefanski and Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel are on the hot seat, and a loss to another struggling team could be the final straw.
The Browns are small betting favorites at the best Ohio sportsbooks, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. Oddsmakers may expect the Browns to win the game, but that also means a loss would be even more disappointing.
The Browns have not been favorites in a game since Week 11 of last season, when they were 1-point favorites against the Saints but lost by 21. In fact, Cleveland has lost the last four games in which it was favored by betting markets.
Can they break the trend this week? Let’s break down the matchup and discuss my Dolphins vs. Browns predictions and best bets.
This game is a total toss-up. In that kind of game, I generally prefer to take the team that gets points. Getting +100 odds makes it even more appealing.
The Dolphins may not be winning games, but they have at least looked more competitive in the last two weeks. They had a chance to win each of their last two games but their defense allowed game-winning drives both times.
That feels much less likely this week against a Browns offense that is dead last in scoring (13.7 points per game) and bottom three in offensive DVOA and EPA*. Cleveland should be able to improve on those numbers against the hapless Dolphins defense, but they will have to rely heavily on Quinshon Judkins running the ball. If the Browns are trailing late in the game, I don’t have much confidence in Dillon Gabriel leading them to a win.
On the other hand, with explosive weapons like Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, the Dolphins may just need one or two big plays to win this game. They are still capable of doing that, even against the Browns’ stout defense.
Miami has covered the spread in three of its last four games, and with a good chance to win this game outright, they are a solid bet to at least cover +2.5.
Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime TD
My favorite player prop bet in this game is Browns rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. to score a touchdown. A big reason for that is the injury to starter David Njoku, who might not play in this game.
Fannin had season highs in targets, receptions, and yards last week, and seems to have nice chemistry with Gabriel. His numbers should only go up with an expanded role if Njoku doesn’t play.
The Dolphins have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season and have already allowed three touchdowns to the position, tied for seventh-most in the league. In a great matchup and with higher volume expected, betting on Fannin is a solid value.
How the Browns can win as the favorite
Best odds: -135 at DraftKings
Browns vs. Dolphins moneyline odds analysis
How the Browns can win as the favorite
Best odds: -135 at DraftKings
The Browns have two big advantages in this matchup.
First, their Myles Garrett-led defensive line should be able to dominate the Dolphins’ offensive line. If Garrett and co. can wreak havoc on Tua Tagovailoa, that could be the biggest factor in this game.
Second, Quinshon Judkins could be primed for a big day against a Dolphins defense allowing a league-high 168.5 rushing yards per game. Prior to last week’s tough matchup against Pittsburgh, Judkins had been running the ball effectively, averaging over 86 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry.
A dominant defense and ground attack is a proven formula for winning in the NFL, and it could be the recipe for the Browns to win their second game of the season.
How the Dolphins can win as the underdog
Best odds: +126 at FanDuel
The Dolphins have scored 20+ points for five straight weeks. The Browns haven’t scored more than 17 points all season.
Miami has more explosive playmakers on offense, especially with the recent resurgence of tight end Darren Waller, who has four touchdowns in three games since coming out of retirement. This game could be a slog, with the lowest Over/Under total of Week 7, which means it could only take one explosive play to break the game open.
Miami is more likely than Cleveland to make that play.
