The Kansas City Chiefs have opened their 2025 campaign with a record of 2-3. That is something many Chiefs fans did not expect when the season kicked off, even accounting for Rashee Rice being suspended for the first six games. Despite taking an early 14-0 lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Monday night and looking to be in command of the game, it took a comedy of errors from all three phases to allow Jacksonville back into — and ultimately win — the game.
While the Chiefs’ offense was by far their best unit on Monday, they committed perhaps the most consequential mistake of the night when Patrick Mahomes threw a 99-yard pick-six to linebacker Devin Lloyd with the game tied at 14. This was the only blemish on an otherwise excellent outing for Mahomes, as he accounted for 378 yards (318 passing and 60 rushing) and two total touchdowns. The Chiefs’ offense as a whole had a productive night, totaling 476 yards, which included 158 rushing yards — their highest total of the season. However, all of that production was overshadowed by the pick-six in the red zone, which led to a crucial 14-point swing.
With that said, Kansas City’s defense and special teams units were far more to blame for this surprising defeat. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, which had allowed just 16.3 points per game over its past three contests, let Jacksonville’s offense score 30 or more points for the first time in a full calendar year. Their most recent 30-point outing came on October 6, 2024, against the Indianapolis Colts.
Kansas City’s upcoming schedule, as well as the schedules of its division rivals, affords it little margin for error.
Outside of a Trent McDuffie interception in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs’ defense committed drive-extending penalties and struggled to get off the field down the stretch. Two critical defensive errors occurred on the Jaguars’ first scoring drive when Jaylen Watson committed a pass interference penalty on 3rd-and-15 and when Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill collided and dropped what would have been an easy interception.
However, the worst defensive sequence came on Jacksonville’s game-winning drive, when Watson was beaten by Brian Thomas Jr. for a 33-yard gain on 3rd-and-7, and Chamarri Conner failed to turn his head and committed pass interference in the end zone.
The lack of discipline the Chiefs displayed in this game was jarring, committing a season-high 13 penalties, with several coming from their special teams unit. Dave Toub’s group has undoubtedly been the worst and most concerning area of the team through five games. The normally reliable Harrison Butker has five misses (three field goals and two extra points), and while Monday’s game was the first time all of his kicks went through the uprights, he committed one of the game’s most crucial errors.
On the ensuing kickoff following the Chiefs’ go-ahead touchdown, Butker sailed the ball out of bounds, giving the Jaguars an extra 20 yards of field position. Butker wasn’t alone in the special teams mishaps, as reserve linebacker Jack Cochrane committed two holding penalties that wiped away big returns, and Nikko Remigio was flagged for an illegal double-team block on another kickoff return. If the Chiefs’ special teams continue to perform the way they have through the first five games, it could cost them greatly.
A silver lining for Chiefs fans is that this team has been in this position before. They started 2-3 (and eventually 3-4) in the 2021 season and still ended up hosting the AFC Championship Game. While that is worth remembering, there is valid reason for concern about the 2025 Chiefs’ long-term outlook. For starters, their upcoming schedule is very difficult, and this lackluster start has afforded them little room for error.
Five of the Chiefs’ next six opponents have winning records. This Sunday night, they host the 4-1 Detroit Lions, who have the league’s highest-scoring offense at 34.8 points per game. While there is a reprieve when they host a poor Raiders team in Week 7, the following four opponents are the Commanders (3-2), Bills (4-1), Broncos (3-2), and Colts (4-1). All of those teams, with the exception of the Colts, were playoff participants a year ago, with two of them (Buffalo and Washington) reaching the conference finals.
Further cause for concern comes from the upcoming schedules of the Broncos and Chargers, both of whom currently hold the upper hand on Kansas City in the AFC West. The Chargers head to Miami this week to take on a 1-4 Dolphins team, while the Broncos face the winless New York Jets in London. The Broncos follow that up with a home matchup against the New York Giants, another one-win team.
Barring catastrophe, both Denver and Los Angeles are likely to win their Week 6 matchups and improve to 4-2, which only increases the importance of the Chiefs’ Sunday night game against Detroit. If the Chiefs were to lose, the likelihood of capturing a 10th consecutive AFC West title would decrease significantly.
The Chiefs have all the talent in the world and have shown encouraging signs of life on offense over the past two games. The defense, while having a poor showing on Monday, has been excellent in three of five contests this season. The special teams, however, remain a legitimate concern, and one could argue they have directly cost the Chiefs at least two wins.
Chiefs fans should by no means throw in the towel on a team that has represented the AFC in five of the past six Super Bowls. However, time is running out for them to play cleaner, more disciplined football and return to the playoff picture.
