The New England Patriots enter October riding high. Their offense is clearly establishing a rhythm, with last week’s 40-burger against the Carolina Panthers the latest example.
It’s good timing, too, since Week 5 represents the first true litmus test of the Mike Vrabel era.
The Patriots (2-2) are preparing to play their first prime-time game of the season. They’ve had a soft opening, with three of their first four games at home against middling teams (and all four in the 1 p.m. EST kickoff window). This week, they get the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (4-0) in Orchard Park on Sunday Night Football.
New England has played the Bills tough in recent seasons, including in 2024 with Drake Maye under center. Maye passed for 261 yards and rushed for 30 more in the Patriots’ 24-21 loss at Buffalo in Week 16.
Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Maye have been cooking in the passing game over the Patriots’ last three games, but the sledding figures to be a lot tougher this week. Sean McDermott’s group has been elite against the pass to start 2025, ranking third in opponent yards per completion (7.9), eighth in opponent completion percentage (62.14%), and No. 1 in gross passing yards allowed per game (141.0), per Team Rankings.
New England should still be able to scheme up its fair share of big plays, especially in what will be a Stefon Diggs revenge game. But there’s a clear weak point in Buffalo’s defense against the run — and the Patriots will need to get their act together in that department to take advantage and pull off a huge road upset.
The New England Patriots must get their inconsistent run game figured out to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 5
There’s obviously a lot more to worry about than Buffalo’s prowess at defending the pass. On the other side of the football, the Bills have the reigning NFL MVP at quarterback in Josh Allen, whose offense is averaging over 400 yards per game to start the season.
That makes the Patriots’ running game the most important piece of Sunday night’s game plan. The Bills have been getting gashed against the run, surrendering 164.3 yards per game; that ranks 31st in the NFL. That stat is even more glaring when you consider Buffalo’s September opponents included teams like the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints.
The big concern for New England entering this one is — can they even take advantage? In a perfect world, the Patriots can attack Buffalo’s weak point on the ground, control the time of possession battle, and keep Allen and company off the field as much as possible. But their rushing attack has been far from perfect through four games.
Rhamondre Stevenson is still No. 1 on the depth chart, but after losing two fumbles in a brutal Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, he saw his snap share significantly reduced in the Panthers game last week. Exciting rookie TreVeyon Henderson has seen added opportunity, but we’ve yet to see the kind of impact expected from the explosive No. 38 overall pick out of Ohio State.
On 97 rush attempts, Henderson is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, ranking him third on the team behind Stevenson and Antonio Gibson; he’s also caught 13 passes, but his longest play from scrimmage thus far is 15 yards.
On the positive side, Henderson has been one of the best running backs in the NFL at avoiding negative plays, which could signal a Week 5 breakout is coming.
Running backs on hot streaks going into week 5
TreVeyon Henderson hasn't been stuffed at the LOS yet this season pic.twitter.com/8FMFH1wcBh
— Ray Carpenter (@csv_enjoyer) October 1, 2025
Overall, the Patriots sit 25th in the NFL in rush yards per game (101.3) despite ranking 17th in average rush attempts (26.3); they’ve been propped up in that department by Maye’s 24 carries for 98 yards, which ranks second on the team.
It’s Week 5. At this point, the Patriots should have their running back rotation figured out. They’re obviously still working to find the right combination, and fans can only hope it all comes together in a sneaky-good spot against the Bills this week.
