Bengals season predictions: Did Cincinnati build enough around Joe Burrow?

Joe Burrow’s aura in Cincinnati has long felt more superhero than superstar.

A franchise quarterback with personality, processing and organizational pull to lift the Bengals from the Ohio River Valley to the NFL mountaintop.

The longer the odds, the more reason to believe, it seemed.

After all, he dropped back in the pocket at the Super Bowl behind four offensive linemen that would combine to start one more NFL game — and nearly won it. He toppled Patrick Mahomes. He won 10 games in a row and broke franchise playoff victory records. He returned from an unprecedented snapped wrist ligament and nearly won MVP. He’s won Comeback Player of the Year twice.

A new reality emerged from 2024, though.

Burrow is not a superhero. He can’t do it alone.

As obvious as that seems in the ultimate team game, last year was the first time the cold reality played out. Burrow can’t cover all the organizational warts anymore. A putrid defense, turnstile guard play and busted draft classes are no longer sustainable.

Instead, they lead to sideline outbursts, front-office criticism, coordinator firings and digesting the frightening view of what the Bengals botching the Burrow window looks like.

You watched Burrow breaking in real time.

An offseason overflowing with controversy, criticism and contracts leads back to this Sunday and the bottom line of the 2025 Bengals: Last year can’t happen again.

The front office and personnel staff paid to ensure the stars could enjoy another run (or four) alongside Burrow. Those investments were solid and the idea of trotting Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins out there this season means this team will have an identity and shot to win every week.

The rest of the organizational bets, however, will determine whether this team returns to the postseason or reverts to a darker timeline of firings and frustration.

Can the nine top-100 picks on defense on rookie contracts, all who have experienced uneven early portions of their careers, rise to a more productive level? Can a team starting two draft picks and with a third in a significant rotational role avoid rookie mistakes that cost games? Can one defensive coordinator change that much about one of the worst defenses in franchise history? Can the offensive line avoid injuries that could put Burrow at risk? Can a top-heavy roster avoid injuries to its well-compensated and counted on big four? Can the team that found ways to lose on repeat last season figure out how to finish games? Can Evan McPherson rediscover the magic of the early portion of his career, where his leg helped carry the Bengals to the Super Bowl?

All of these questions surround the glittery treasure of Burrow, Chase and Higgins. Any one of these issues is capable of costing this team a game or two or three. Or perhaps yet another season.

For me, there are too many variables without proof of concept on defense to buy that the Bengals can improve enough to win the Super Bowl. This offense could be the best in football and more than enough to carry this team back to the playoffs with even the slightest amount of help.

You just have to squint too hard to see it reaching the top-12 unit the Bengals need to capture a title. I have more faith in Cincinnati’s ability to win games in January than I do in the first half of the season. The question will be whether the Bengals can squeeze out enough to make it back to the postseason, where Burrow brings an unquestioned reputation for taking out the league’s best.

A return to the playoffs looks good, but today there’s not enough to count on to see a truly special season.

Schedule projection

At Browns: Win (1-0). Turnovers are the difference; fast start narratives subside.

Jaguars: Loss (1-1). Abolish “Open in Orange” for life.

At Vikings: Win (2-1). Young QBs make young QB mistakes, but Burrow doesn’t.

At Broncos: Loss (2-2). Bengals’ defense costs them a game on “Monday Night Football.”

Lions: Win (3-2). Burrow goes off as Lions battle brain-drain woes.

At Packers: Loss (3-3). Packers wreck the momentum because Micah Parsons wrecks the game.

Steelers: Win (4-3). Finally, the Bengals get a home AFC North prime-time advantage.

Jets: Win (5-3). Party at Paycor in the biggest blowout of the season.

Bears: Loss (5-4). Ben Johnson takes advantage of Bengals’ defensive weaknesses.

Bye

At Steelers: Win (6-4). Is that Mason Rudolph’s music?

Patriots: Loss (6-5). Bengals stop inviting New England to Cincinnati.

At Ravens: Loss (6-6). Short week, in the division, Thanksgiving night, in Baltimore, might be the toughest task on the NFL calendar.

At Bills: Win (7-6). Fun game, but Bengals continue torturing Buffalo.

Ravens: Loss (7-7). Lamar Jackson moves to 7-1 against Burrow in games both start and complete.

At Dolphins: Win (8-7). Another late-season Miami free fall.

Cardinals: Win (9-7). Here they come. Backs against the wall, making another charge.

Browns: Win (10-7). Bengals sneak into the playoffs, and Browns get No. 1 pick. One day, two winners.

AFC North

1. Ravens: 13-4
2. Bengals: 10-7
3. Steelers: 7-10
4. Browns: 4-13

AFC

1. Ravens
2. Bills
3. Chiefs
4. Texans
5. Broncos
6. Bengals
7. Patriots

AFC Playoffs

Wild-card round

Bengals over Chiefs

Bills over Patriots

Broncos over Texans

Divisional round

Ravens over Bengals

Bills over Broncos

AFC Championship

Ravens over Bills

NFC

1. Packers
2. Eagles
3. Rams
4. Panthers
5. Commanders
6. Seahawks
7. Vikings

Wild-card round

Eagles over Vikings

Rams over Seahawks

Commanders over Panthers

Divisional round

Packers over Commanders

Eagles over Rams

NFC Championship

Packers over Eagles

Super Bowl LX

Ravens over Packers

Bottom line: The Bengals’ season will (again) be defined by their ability to beat the Ravens. Lamar Jackson has their number. He’s won five in a row against Burrow when both start and finish the game. He’s 10-1 against the Bengals. The games always seem to come down to a play or two that could go either way. Except, it never does.

Beating Baltimore amounts to the swing games of the season, both in the division and the AFC race. No team has won the AFC North three years in a row, but this might be the best opportunity. The Ravens are the class of the division and the entire NFL. They’ve merely struggled to finish in January. Find a way to beat them, and Cincinnati could earn a home playoff game and potentially much more, which it’ll need to put together a January run.

In this scenario, the organization’s problem beating the Ravens shifts from annoying to season-defining, going 0-3. If the Bengals send a message on Thanksgiving night, the outlook for the rest of the year will drastically change. The Bengals need accelerated development from their defense to make it happen, and I just don’t see it happening to that level.