Look, I get it, Joe Burrow throws a pretty spiral, and Ja’Marr Chase can make defensive backs look like they’re running in quicksand for the Cincinnati Bengals. The betting markets have Cincinnati’s win total set at 9.5 games, and honestly? That number feels about as inflated as Jerry Jones’ ego and Mike Brown’s cheapness. This is a team that managed nine wins last season while their defense played with all the intensity of a DMV employee on a Friday afternoon.
The Defense Remains a Disaster
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room, or should I say the sieve masquerading as a defense. Last season, the Bengals finished 27th in DVOA on the defensive side of the ball. That’s not “needs improvement” territory; that’s “maybe we should consider forfeiting” bad.
Here’s the kicker: Cincinnati managed those nine wins while playing the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses in 2024. When you’re getting torched by bottom-tier attacks, what exactly do you think is going to happen when you face legitimate offensive firepower?
The Bengals’ defensive strategy last season seemed to be “pray the other team gets bored and stops trying.” When they allowed 29 or fewer points, they went 9-2. When they didn’t? A perfect 0-6 record that tells you everything you need to know about this team’s ceiling.
The Schedule Reality Check
Speaking of schedules, Cincinnati’s 2025 slate isn’t exactly a cakewalk. They’re facing the 14th-hardest set of opposing offenses based on last year’s DVOA ratings. That’s a significant jump from their cushy 2024 schedule, and this defense is about as prepared for that challenge as a paper umbrella is for a hurricane. The Bengals will face nine games against teams that had winning records last season. Five of those teams won 12 or more games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed if they tried.
The Injury Luck Won’t Last & They Have No Depth
Here’s something that should terrify Bengals fans: their offense stayed remarkably healthy last season. Of their 34.5 adjusted games lost to injury on offense, most came along the offensive line. Chase, Higgins, and Burrow all stayed healthy last season. In the NFL, health is often random and it doesn’t help that this team has zero depth on offense at all. At least Chase Brown will get more snaps with Zack Moss getting released.
The AFC North Reality
Let’s not forget that the Bengals play in arguably the NFL’s toughest division. The Ravens have an 11.5 win total for a reason: they’re legitimately good. The Steelers, even at 8.5 wins, have a defense that can actually stop someone occasionally and Mike Tomlin as the coach. Cleveland, on the other hand, well, they are just a factory of sadness.
Cincinnati’s path to 10 wins requires them to not only improve defensively but also do so while facing better competition. That’s like asking someone to learn calculus while being punched in the face.
The Bottom Line
The Bengals are a talented offensive team with a defense that belongs in witness protection. Last season’s nine wins came against a soft schedule, and 2025 won’t be nearly as forgiving. This defense sucks, and their head coach is overrated. Just take the under at 9.5 wins and sleep well knowing you’re on the right side of reality. This just feels like free money for the taking.
