Navigating the complexities of an NFL backfield is a crucial part of any winning fantasy football strategy. The Cleveland Browns present a particularly interesting puzzle this season, with a mix of veteran reliability and rookie uncertainty.

Jerome Ford enters the year as the presumed starter, but the unresolved situation with second-round pick Quinshon Judkins and the emergence of Dylan Sampson create a classic draft-day dilemma. Understanding the fantasy outlook for each of these running backs is essential for managers looking to find value and avoid risk.

Jerome Ford Fantasy Outlook

Ford averaged 5.4 yards per carry a season ago and seems to have a knack for the occasional stat-skewing big play. Those splashes are fun for the week they occur, but if you remove the four 60+ yard runs from his NFL resume, we are talking about a former fifth round pick that continues to see the organization draft RBs who averages 3.6 yards per carry.

The profile by itself isn’t overly enticing, but fantasy is a game of opportunity and Ford figures to open the season with a high-floor role. Sampson projects as his biggest obstacle in September and while the rookie will certainly get some run, his lack of versatility limits how much food he can take off of Ford’s plate.

who was able to pick up jerome ford?! 🙋‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/4E4sJbsbVR

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) September 24, 2023

This offense is going to rank among the worst in the league and that makes ceiling weeks nearly impossible to project. That said, the Browns open with the Bengals, a spot where they should have success moving the ball and will be motivated to keep Cincinnati’s offense off the field.

Draft Ford for what he is–the occasional fill-in option who comes with volume risk if the Judkins situation gets ironed out OR Sampson shows potential. Not all picks have league-winning upside: Ford is a reasonable bench piece that is in position to get double digit touches with regularity to open the season.

Quinshon Judkins Fantasy Outlook

During the NFL draft process, Judkins rose to my RB2 right with Omarion Hampton. He went early in the second round to Cleveland, and while I would’ve loved for him to be attached to a better offense, I still like the scheme he’d be entering with a likely workhorse role attached. Plus, his value would never get too high being on the Browns.

Now, we aren’t even sure if Judkins will play this season. Earlier this offseason, he was arrested–the same time other second-rounders were holding out for higher guarantees. This perfect storm has led to Judkins being without a deal and in the midst of a legal battle. Had he signed a contract earlier, there’s a good chance he’d still be cleared to play until everything was resolved, but that likely wouldn’t happen until next season. Instead, Judkins and the Browns will have to wait out the process.

Judkins is likely a late-round stash in most cases, but I wouldn’t bother with it unless we get an update prior to drafts. Wasting a bench spot for a player who may not play this year is too rich for me, and we don’t know if he’s even worth drafting. Let someone else deal with it, and take Sampson instead.

– Mason LeBeau, Fantasy Football Analyst 

Dylan Sampson Fantasy Outlook

This Judkins situation doesn’t seem to be getting any more clear as the season nears and that leaves Cleveland with a Ford/Sampson backfield.

Ford profiles as the lead man to open the season for a few reasons. The first being that he’s been with the franchise for three seasons and his 4.9 yards per touch have given the team reason to trust that he can handle his own.

The driving force in his value could be the fact that 20.4% of his career touches have come via the reception. Sampson has had an impressive camp and showed well for himself with 22 touchdowns at Tennessee last season, but with just 40 of his 462 collegiate touches (8.7%) coming as a receiver, his upside is capped.

Look for the fourth round pick to handle some two-down work and potentially get looks on the doorstep. We could be looking at a David Montgomery like role which sounds good, but when you consider that this might be a bottom-3 scoring offense instead of a top-3 unit that Detroit supports Montgomery with, the weekly appeal is limited at best right now.

Stash and hope. At the very least, there’s the potential for Sampson to take hold of the goal line duties and that role alone has some appeal as bye weeks approach and injuries occur.

– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst