Following tendencies is in the nature of how the NFL works. But truly good teams tend to be ahead of the trends. Yahoo’s NFL analyst Nate Tice wrote a super insightful article about where the league is going with some situational trends, and the Green Bay Packers seem to be in a great place to take advantage of all of them in 2025 and beyond.
Not only do the Packers have what it takes to execute all factors, the front office purposefully built the offense to maximize its efficiency in the areas we will discuss above.
Third and fourth down efficiency
Fewer plays, shorter fields. With the new kickoff return rules and just based on how defenses have operated, last season had the lowest league-wide mark since 2008 with 62.2 plays per offense per game. It was also the least amount of drives per game (10.7) for each offense.
This means it’s even more important to be efficient on third and fourth downs. With fewer drives, each possession is extremely important for the outcomes of games. While the Packers were worryingly conservative on fourth-down calls last year, they have been effective on money downs.
Since Matt LaFleur took over as a head coach in 2019, Green Bay’s offense is sixth in success rate and seventh in EPA/play. Over the past two years, with Jordan Love at quarterback, it is ninth in EPA/play and 12th in success rate. And that’s considering the drop issues the unit has had.
Running efficiency
Tice mentions that running backs averaged 3.02 yards after contact per designed run in 2024, the highest number since 2006. You won’t be shocked to find out why the Packers signed Josh Jacobs last offseason.
In his first season in Green Bay, Jacobs was third in total yards after contact and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Even with questionable run blocking, Green Bay leaned into Jacobs and it paid off to some degree.
The Packers had a 51.69% run rate in 2024, which is third in the league — and no team was run-heavier in neutral situations. It was the first time since 2003 where they were over 50% in run rate.
It’s not a surprise that the Packers were so intentional to adding more beef to the offensive line, signing Aaron Banks in free agency and drafting Anthony Belton in the second round. If the line can create more running lanes, Josh Jacobs could be an even more impactful offensive piece.
Tight ends to create mismatches
NFL offenses used 12 personnel at the highest rate since 2013, Nate says. Guess what’s the formation the Packers aligned on the first day of OTAs open to the media? Right, they had Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave among the 11 starters.
They took both Musgrave and Kraft on Day 2 of the draft in 2023. The second-rounder had a strong rookie season until a kidney injury forced him to miss time and affected his production. Last year, Musgrave didn’t have much of a role because of an ankle injury. In the meantime, Kraft established himself as a top young tight end in the league. The former third-rounder led the NFL among tight ends in yards after the catch per reception (9.3) and had a 134.6 passer rating when targeted last season.
If Kraft keeps his rising trajectory, with his ability to both block and create extra yards, and Musgrave can stay healthy to be a deep target over the middle, the Packers will be in perfect position to maximize the utilization of 12 personnel.
