Let’s try to predict how Kansas City’s offense will fare in 2025.

The NFL Draft is now well in the rearview mirror.

We now know the Kansas City Chiefs’ full schedule — and, for the most part, what the 2025 roster will look like. That makes it a perfect time to take a preliminary look at the upcoming season and project how the Chiefs’ offense will perform in 2025.

We’ll examine five key statistical categories and assign an over-under number for each. Then we’ll predict whether the Chiefs will likely hit or miss it.

Note: While we heavily considered past statistics, this project is, by definition, rooted in projections and educated guesses.

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Passing touchdowns

There are many factors to consider when projecting passing numbers because — unlike a stat such as sacks or tackles — you have to account not only for who the quarterback is but also for the talent of the receiving corps and the unpredictable variable of human error on all sides.

Here are some of the key elements I took into consideration when arriving at this number:

• Past statistical performance
• Strength of schedule
• Plus-minus variation based on roster moves (WR improvements, Kelce’s regression, and an upgraded offensive line)
• Strength of opponent pass defense

Based on these factors, we calculated an overall expected average between the two models and used this as our projected over/under.

Based on past statistical performance, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is projected to throw 26.66 touchdowns this year.

If we average the number of passing touchdowns allowed by the Chiefs’ 2025 opponents last season, we arrive at 26 touchdowns.

Factoring in the improved health of Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, along with the additions of Jalen Roylas, Jaylon Moore and Josh Simmons, I added +5 touchdowns to the projection.

Then, I subtracted -2 touchdowns to account for the loss of Joe Thuney and the expected regression of Travis Kelce.

This model is built on the following assumptions:

• A balanced mix of easy and difficult opponents
• Moderate improvement in offensive personnel
• Kelce aging, but still productive
• No major injuries

Projected passing touchdowns: 29.66

My take: Over

We will see the return of MVPat, and the rest of the NFL will suffer.

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Rushing touchdowns

While the rushing projection is a little easier to calculate, you still have to account for several factors that will impact the Chiefs’ ground game in 2025.

For this projection, we considered past statistical performance, as well as:

• Changes to the offensive line
• Addition of new personnel
• Improved passing, which may lead to fewer running plays
• Improved passing, which may also lead to more red zone opportunities

The Chiefs’ 2025 opponents gave up an average of 17.79 rushing touchdowns in 2024.

Based on the Chiefs’ past statistical performance in this area, they are projected to score 15.71 rushing touchdowns in 2025.

When I looked at the additions to the roster and factored in the loss of a key player like Joe Thuney, I projected a slight overall improvement, awarding a +1 touchdown adjustment for 2025.

Projected rushing touchdowns: 17.75

My take: Under

The Chiefs’ biggest gain in the running back room is a guy who excels at catching out of the backfield. They may score more touchdowns from the running back position, but not on the ground.

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Passes over 20 yards

The Chiefs have been patiently anticipating the return of the deep shot, growing hungrier for it over the past couple of seasons.

Several factors contribute to this, including the success of the running game in keeping defenses honest and the frequency with which opponents line up in deep shell coverages.

Fortunately, the Chiefs have a favorable schedule in that category for 2025. Their upcoming opponents allowed an average of 49.86 passes of 20-plus yards last season.

The Chiefs themselves had 42 passes over 20 yards last season.

Considering that this is a very young and athletic receiving group, I expect them to outperform last year’s performance by a significant margin. So, I awarded them a +3 in this category.

Projected passes over 20 yards: 49

My take: Over

That’s 2.88 big plays a game through the air. I believe that this receiving corps will beat this number.

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Red-zone efficiency

There’s a bit of speculation about this one. You want to look at the number of red zone visits that result in a touchdown. To do this, you’ll use your previous projections as a baseline, which, combined, come to a total of 47.47 touchdowns.

But we need to estimate how many of those touchdowns will come specifically from the red zone — and that’s where things get sticky. A generous estimate would be 25% of touchdowns occurring outside the red zone. And since I’m feeling generous, we’ll subtract nine touchdowns from our total.

That gives us 39.47 projected red zone touchdowns in 2025.

Next, we need to determine the projected total red-zone visits for the Chiefs in 2025.

Looking at data from the past seven seasons, the Chiefs have averaged 65.71 red zone visits per year.

Now, we calculate the projected red zone touchdown percentage.

Projected red-zone efficiency: 60.08% (this would have been 10th in the league behind Dever last season)

My take: Over

I think this offense is going to be a well-oiled machine in 2025. If the players are healthy, they will see more touchdowns than field goals.

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Points per game

To calculate this number, we need to take the expected number of field goals that will be converted and multiply that by three, then add the projected offensive totals.

Next, we factor in outlying situations like defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns, which I’ve estimated as touchdowns.

Once all these numbers are crunched, we’re left with the projected points per game.

Projected points per game: 26.43

My take: Over

See passing touchdowns and red zone efficiency.