Start marking your calendars! The Chiefs’ 2025 full schedule has been released with the who, when, and where. Due to the Chiefs’ unimaginably historic run since 2018, it’s made them somewhat the focal point among many hardcore and casual football fans throughout the world. Five Super Bowl appearances (three wins) in six years will tend to do that.

The viewing numbers on Chiefs games have never been higher for the league, and the NFL has taken notice. It has “awarded” the Chiefs with a league-leading seven primetime games this upcoming season, as well as games on Thanksgiving and Christmas. The Chiefs open the year on September 5th with a Friday night game vs. the Chargers in Brazil, one of seven international games given out by the league.

But rather than provide you the full schedule, which is just a Google search away, I’ve decided to detail my three most likely games the Chiefs will be upset in this season.

1. Week 9: Chiefs @ Bills – Sun, Nov. 2 – 3:25 PM

This is one of the more fascinating matchups for both squads seemingly every year. Mahomes is 4-0 vs. Josh Allen and Buffalo in the playoffs, but just 1-4 in the regular season, the second-worst record for Mahomes versus a singular team in his storied career. The Chiefs face quite the gauntlet of teams before their Week 10 bye with games against the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Lions, Commanders, and Bills, many of these games in standalone, primetime spots.

The Chiefs have been outscored by Buffalo 78-112 in their four losses, with Mahomes averaging a modest 62.9% completion percentage, 269 yards per game, and a putrid 8:7 TD-INT ratio. I think the Chiefs may be a little worn out for this game against Buffalo, and perhaps looking forward to some rest too early. The good thing here is that whatever happens in this game has shown to have absolutely no bearing on what happens when these two powerhouse franchises meet up when it matters in the playoffs.

2. Week 12: Colts @ Chiefs – Sun, Nov 23 – 12:00 PM

As odd as it may sound, the Colts of all teams has been Patrick Mahomes kryptonite, as they are the only team that Mahomes has yet to beat in the regular season with an 0-2 record (1-0 record in the 2019 Divisional Round, en route to Kansas City’s first Super Bowl win in 50 years). The Chiefs played the Colts back in 2019 and again in 2022, putting up scores of 13 and 17, resulting in two separate losses. Mahomes’ numbers are less than ideal, with a career low 56.8 completion percentage and just two touchdowns in two games.

This is also a weird spot in the Chiefs’ schedule, as it’s after a game versus a division rival in Denver and just four days before the Thanksgiving showdown against the Cowboys in Dallas. Every year, the Chiefs are typically due for an odd loss to a team that they should trounce, and I think this Week 12 matchup may be that this year.

3. Week 17: Broncos @ Chiefs – Thu, Dec. 25 – 7:15 PM

Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. The Chiefs play on Christmas Day again? Can’t we get a break? No, we can’t. The NFL likes money. At least it’s a night game and not during the hustle and bustle of a busy morning of present unwrapping and warding off your estranged relatives.

Nonetheless, I think this game spells trouble with yet another short 3-day rest week, coming off a road game against Tennessee. Denver is going to be pretty good this year, good enough perhaps to make a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. The Chiefs have literally scored two touchdowns in the last three matchups, all with Sean Payton at the helm for Denver. They lost last year with a score of 9-24 and would have fallen in both divisional games had it not been for Leo Chenal’s immaculate game-saving blocked field goal (I still laugh about that).

Having said all that, Mahomes’ career record against Denver is 13-1, so it’s safe to say I’m not exactly worried about the Broncos as a whole, but I do believe that at some point, you play a team enough, you tend to lose a couple. Especially when Denver’s defense projects to be the best in the league.