The Bengals are in a precarious position having dedicated great financial resources to offensive playmakers, while the defense is coming off an ugly 2024.

The window to win a Super Bowl may span the duration of Joe Burrow’s career, but each season that passes without him hoisting a Lombardi Trophy is a missed opportunity. Plain and simple, the Cincinnati Bengals MUST hit on their draft picks this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Which prospects represent the best profile to be immediate contributors?

Defining Success

First things first, how do we define a ‘successful’ season for a defensive lineman? For EDGE players, I used a Pass Rush Win Rate of 12.0% or more. In 2024, that would represent a top-50 rate among the position which indicates impactful results that are still attainable for a rookie or second year player.

For interior defensive linemen, success is a 10.0% Pass Rush Win Rate which represents a top-30 rate at the position. Again, impactful yet attainable even early on in one’s career.

Next, why Pass Rush Win Rate as the criterion of success?

While counting stats such as pressures and sacks indiciate the impact of a pass rusher, they can be suppressed by factors such as a quarterbacks time to throw. Using the PFF pass rush win rate allows us to see the players that have shown ability to win their matchup and create pressure.

Recent Trends for Instant Impact

Many expect the Bengals to address their pass rush with one of their first two picks. With that information, I narrowed our pool of players to iDL and EDGE drafted within the first 50 picks of the NFL Draft since 2021. That robust sample size of 50 allows us to draw meaningful insights and trends.

EDGE

Since 2021, of the 33 EDGE players drafted within the top-50, 17/33 (51.5%) became instant impact players. A common theme among those players was a high Pass Rush Win Rate in their final collegiate season. Of the 17 EDGE that were able to contribute a season with a PRWR of 12.0% or higher within their first two NFL seasons, 13/17 (76.5%) had a PRWR of at least 15% in their final season in college.

Interior DL

Since 2021, of the 17 iDL players drafted within the top-50, 5/17 (29.4%) became instant impact pass rushers. The lower hit rate can be somewhat attributed to the fact that not all iDL are designated pass rushers, instead, many are tasked with absorbing double teams, stuffing the run, etc. However, looking at the five that showed early success in the NFL as pass rushers, 80% had PRWR of at least 12.0% in their final collegiate season.

The Best Options at Picks 17 & 49

This year’s class seems loaded with pass rushers both at EDGE and along the interior of the defensive line. Which players projected to be drafted in the first two rounds have the collegiate PRWR that would make them most likely to succeed early in their careers?

EDGE

• James Pearce, Jr. (23.0%)
• Abdul Carter (22.9%)
• Princely Umanmielen (22.8%)
• Bradyn Swinson (22.1%)
• Mike Green (20.9%)
• Jack Sawyer (19.1%)
• Donovan Ezeiraku (18.2%)
• Nic Scourton (17.1%)
• Jared Ivey (16.8%)

Notable Omissions: Mykel Williams (11.3%), Shemar Stewart (12.4%), JT Tuimoloau (12.1%), Landon Jackson (11.2%)

While all of these players meet the minimum PRWR of 15.0% in their final collegiate season, we can narrow this down even further.

Since 2021, of the 10 EDGE rushers that had a PRWR of at least 20% in their final collegiate season, 70% turned in a productive season within their first two years in the NFL.

That leaves our wish list at James Pearce, Jr., Mike Green, Princely Umanmielen, and Bradyn Swinson.

Interior DL

The list of pass rushing disruptors from the interior of the DL is much smaller than EDGE when we narrow down our pool to players with a PRWR of at least 12.0% in their final collegiate season:

• Omar Normann-Lott (18.9%)
• Derrick Harmon (18.8%)
• Mason Graham (13.8%)
• TJ Sanders (12.6%)
• Darius Alexander (12.4%)

Notable Omissions: Walter Nolen (10.9%), Kenneth Grant (9.4%)

Bengals Draft Tendencies

Since 2000, the Cincinnati Bengals have drafted 34 defensive linemen. Looking at weight alone, EDGE Carl Lawson and Cedric Johnson are the lightest at 260lbs. Additionally, both were drafted in the mid-late rounds. Along the interior, the only player the Bengals have drafted at sub-300 is Zach Carter, and that experiment was anything but successful. Will the Bengals break their previous draft tendencies in regards to weight and take one of the uber-productive defensive linemen in this year’s crop of pass rushers? If they want to increase the likelihood that they draft an instant impact player, they have no choice.

The Pick Is In

While prospect analysis would ideally marry both film and analytics, the purpose of this article is to determine which players have a collegiate production profile that historically leads to early career success. So who should the Bengals target in the first two rounds to give their defense a much needed pass rush boost?

In Round 1, the most sought after prospects should be Derrick Harmon, James Pearce, Jr., and Mike Green, the latter two which would break the Bengals mold of drafting slender defensive linemen.

In Round 2, Omar Normann-Lott, Princely Umanmielen, Bradyn Swinson and Jack Sawyer profile as the top options, with a slew of players in the second and third tiers.

Would the Bengals *actually* consider each of those guys?

Size (and possible character concerns) all but rule out Pearce and Green. Norman-Lott, Umanmielen, and Swinson each lack the size the Bengals typically target at the position. That leaves Derrick Harmon (Round 1) and Jack Sawyer (Round 2) as the most probably Bengals targets that fit our profile as instant impact pass rushers, with Nic Scourton and Jared Ivey being second-tier alternatives.