When Blackhawks fans daydreamed in spring 2023 about Connor Bedard’s future NHL goals, they probably imagined something like his snipe Sunday against the Flyers.

It was basically the perfect Bedard goal. After Ryan Donato tied up a faceoff, Bedard grabbed the puck while cutting into the slot, patiently maneuvered around Travis Konecny, used his quick hands to get his shot off and accurately picked the top corner of the net.

Connor Bedard SNIPE pic.twitter.com/kIJ5hx6mBs

— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) March 23, 2025

The 19-year-old star hasn’t produced as many highlight-reel tallies as expected in his first two seasons, but he is now two-for-two in terms of reaching the 20-goal mark. He recorded 22 goals as a rookie and he now touts 20 as a sophomore — having played in three more games (and counting) than last season — after scoring in three consecutive home games.

“He has had chances, and now they’re starting to go in,” interim coach Anders Sorensen said Sunday. “I thought his last five games have been really good overall. Maybe the numbers don’t always show it, but he’s been really good.”

The numbers actually do show some improvement during Bedard’s last five games, although that’s partially because he set such a low bar in his first 11 games after the 4 Nations break, which were some of the worst of his career.

Through Feb. 8, the Hawks’ scoring-chance ratio during five-on-five play with Bedard on the ice was 41.4%, compared to 44.7% without him. Then from Feb. 22 through March 13, those ratios fell even lower to 34.8% with Bedard and 40.0% without him.

But in the five games since March 13, the Hawks are at 50.0% with Bedard — 37 chances for and 37 against — compared to 41.4% without him. He has nonetheless been outscored 7-1 during that span, but the underlying statistics are decent.

It’s worth noting matchups play a role in why the Hawks appear to do worse with Bedard than without him; he’s typically facing opposing teams’ best players.

It’s also worth noting Bedard’s age continues to be massively under-appreciated; he’s a full 18 months younger than Hawks rookie forward Frank Nazar, for context.

But Bedard’s analytical struggles are still worrying. Teams typically want their best player — regardless of age — driving play, not just fighting to survive.

The Devils, for example, have a 57.0% scoring-chance ratio during Jack Hughes’ five-on-five ice time this season, compared to 50.2% without him. And at this point, Hughes might be Bedard’s closest model — moreso than superstars like Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby.

During the final 11 games of the season, it’s unreasonable to expect Bedard to continue breaking even in terms of scoring chances; the Hawks are just too bad for that to be possible. It would be encouraging, however, to see him at least continue exceeding the team average.

And it would be very encouraging to see Bedard begin outperforming his analytics the way players with elite releases and shots sometimes do. He possesses enough micro-skills to potentially win the scoring battle even while swimming underwater in terms of chances and dealing with a steep learning curve in the defensive zone.

Former Hawks great Patrick Kane, for example, has consistently done that, scoring 300 career five-on-five goals (to date) off of shots with an estimated value of 226.6 expected goals. As a result, Kane’s career scoring-chance ratio is a subpar 49.7%, but his career goals ratio — the thing that really matters — is a stellar 53.3%.

Bedard so far has scored 26 career five-on-five goals off of shots with an estimated value of 27.9 expected goals, meaning he has slightly underperformed.

But more plays like Sunday’s could change that quickly, because that shot was valued at less than 0.1 expected goals. That is Bedard’s signature type of goal, and he needs to start writing his signature more often.